Fahd Sheikh Profile picture
Sep 6 7 tweets 7 min read
* #PAKISTAN 🇵🇰 DEBT ACCUMULATION — CAUTION ⚠️ *

During @PTIofficial’s last year in power (Jul-2021 to Mar-2022), Pakistan’s total debt (domestic + external) increased by PKR 4.4 trillion (or US$25.1 billion @ an average USD:PKR parity of 175).

@ImranKhanPTI @shaukat_tarin Image
Note: even though most of #Pakistan’s debt is not USD-denominated, but by providing the USD-equivalent no., I’ve just tried to provide an idea of the country’s sheer scale of debt accumulation.

@PTIofficial added debt at a rate of PKR 550 billion (or US$3.1 billion) per month. Image
Now let’s have a look at what happened post-VONC:

During the first 4 months of @pmln_org & @MediaCellPPP’s govt. aka PDM (Apr-2022 to Jul-2022), #Pakistan’s total debt has increased by PKR 7.4 trillion (or US$36.1 billion @ ave. USD:PKR parity of 205).

@CMShehbaz @MiftahIsmail Image
Note: even though most of #Pakistan’s debt is not USD-denominated, but by providing the USD-equivalent no., I’ve just tried to provide an idea of the country’s sheer scale of debt accumulation.

#PDM has added debt at a rate of PKR 1.85 trillion (or US$9.0 billion) per month. Image
* MATTER OF GRAVE CONCERN 🚨*

Given its current trajectory (see graph), one can easily expect the first 5-months debt accumulation of #PDM to cross the PKR 10 trillion mark (or US$47.6 billion @ upwards revised ave. USD:PKR parity of 210).

Alarm bells ringing 🔔 in Islamabad? Image
For decades, each successive govt. in #Pakistan has lacked both fiscal discipline (through poor reforms in @FBRSpokesperson) & monetary discipline (through a quasi-control over @StateBank_Pak).

In the process, #GOP has racked up an atrocious quantum of domestic & external debt. Image
Irresponsible & incompetent politicians, bureaucrats, and military dictatorships come and go.

It shall, however, fall on the shoulders of the current and future generations of #Pakistan 🇵🇰 to repay this staggering debt.

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More from @FahdSheikh3

Dec 2, 2021
Is there no one in this government who can forecast trade deficit & CAD correctly even for the next 3 months?

I mean how can forecasting be so out that it leads to these kind of alarming surprises & doesn’t help MoF & SBP take pre-emptive measures before time? @MuzzammilAslam3
Spending $ billions a year on imported CBU’s & CKD’s for fossil fuel cars for a country that is heavily dependent on imported energy is a highly unintelligent strategy.

Those who were pushing for reducing duties on imported vehicles must be asked as to what they were thinking.
Secondly, for a net energy importer that should look to reduce its dependence on oil, an auto policy propagating the import of legacy vehicles instead of electric vehicles is completely flawed. The auto & auto parts lobby had sold the idea of auto sector exports to @PTIofficial.
Read 27 tweets
Nov 28, 2021
*PAKISTAN SOVEREIGN DEBT* —
A THREAD 🧵:

This is an eye-opening depiction of how successive govt’s have mismanaged debt in #Pakistan.

85% of 🇵🇰’s tax revenues are now used to service debt.

Under the circumstances, #GOP & @PTIofficial have a few options that they can employ:
1) Ramp up tax revenue growth —

@NadraPak has a list of 3 million top spenders of #Pakistan. Now is the time to act & hold tax evaders accountable. @FBRSpokesperson, @shaukat_tarin, and NADRA, in coordination, need to start knocking on some doors.

tribune.com.pk/story/2308066/…
2) Stop the bleeding from Public Sector Enterprises (PSE’s) —

Prioritise the privatisation of entities that are bleeding the most. A presentation to this effect & why privatisation has become so critical for Pakistan’s economic security should be given by @ImranKhanPTI himself.
Read 16 tweets
Oct 6, 2021
#Pakistan Banking Sector M&A —
A Thread 🧵

Interesting things happening in 🇵🇰’s banking sector related to #GCC-based sponsors.

Samba Bank is leaving 🇵🇰 🔜 after parent entity’s merger with NCB in Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦, & MergeCo Saudi National Bank’s decision to divest some assets.
Silk Bank is on perpetual sale after its abysmal performance in #Pakistan 🇵🇰 despite benefitting from one of the highest equity injections till-date. It is to be sold 🔜 and IFC / Nomura / Bank Muscat / Gourmet Group along with others will take a massive hit on their investment.
In banking, the best combination is always *a strong sponsor with a strong management team*. If you can get that right, there’s no better business in #Pakistan.

However, if your institution does not benefit from either of the two, then the bank is highly likely to underperform.
Read 10 tweets

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