The #IMF mission has apparently been particularly tough during ongoing negotiations to unlock an additional $1 billion in funding for #Pakistan.

They’ve essentially told #GOP that it has never approached the turnaround of Pakistan’s economy seriously.

brecorder.com/news/40224672 They’ve also cast doubt on the sincerity of #GOP’s intentions going forward, which is why they have decided to literally force some of the fiscal (read: price hikes) and monetary adjustments (read: unpegging of the disastrous #DarPeg) on this hapless #PDM coalition government.

#Darnomics & the #DarPeg 🚨

A thread 🧵 —

There are two very clear scenarios in #Pakistan 🇵🇰 at the moment: Scenario 1 —

Finance Minister @MIshaqDar50 continues “managing” the country’s exchange rate. Once he’s gone (3-6 months), and a caretaker government comes in, PKR will shoot up (possibly overshoot) to previously unseen levels beyond 275 vs. USD.

Agha Hasan Abedi — legendary banker & founding President of #BCCI (Bank of Credit & Commerce International) — the world’s 7th largest privately owned bank.

A bank run by Pakistanis 🇵🇰 & financed by the Ruling Family of Abu Dhabi 🇦🇪 & prominent family offices of Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦.

https://twitter.com/pak_investor/status/1603650672284602368

Founded in 1972, during a meeting of senior bankers in Beirut, #Lebanon 🇱🇧, #BCCI went on to open up branches & launch full-fledged commercial banking operations in 73 countries around the world by 1989. This included opening the first branch of a foreign-owned bank in #China 🇨🇳.

* #PAKISTAN 🇵🇰 DEBT ACCUMULATION — CAUTION ⚠️ *

During @PTIofficial’s last year in power (Jul-2021 to Mar-2022), Pakistan’s total debt (domestic + external) increased by PKR 4.4 trillion (or US$25.1 billion @ an average USD:PKR parity of 175).

@ImranKhanPTI @shaukat_tarin Note: even though most of #Pakistan’s debt is not USD-denominated, but by providing the USD-equivalent no., I’ve just tried to provide an idea of the country’s sheer scale of debt accumulation.

@PTIofficial added debt at a rate of PKR 550 billion (or US$3.1 billion) per month.

Is there no one in this government who can forecast trade deficit & CAD correctly even for the next 3 months?

I mean how can forecasting be so out that it leads to these kind of alarming surprises & doesn’t help MoF & SBP take pre-emptive measures before time? @MuzzammilAslam3

https://twitter.com/KhaleeqKiani/status/1466238979980894218

Spending $ billions a year on imported CBU’s & CKD’s for fossil fuel cars for a country that is heavily dependent on imported energy is a highly unintelligent strategy.

Those who were pushing for reducing duties on imported vehicles must be asked as to what they were thinking.

*PAKISTAN SOVEREIGN DEBT* —
A THREAD 🧵:

This is an eye-opening depiction of how successive govt’s have mismanaged debt in #Pakistan.

85% of 🇵🇰’s tax revenues are now used to service debt.

Under the circumstances, #GOP & @PTIofficial have a few options that they can employ: 1) Ramp up tax revenue growth —

@NadraPak has a list of 3 million top spenders of #Pakistan. Now is the time to act & hold tax evaders accountable. @FBRSpokesperson, @shaukat_tarin, and NADRA, in coordination, need to start knocking on some doors.

tribune.com.pk/story/2308066/…

#Pakistan Banking Sector M&A —
A Thread 🧵

Interesting things happening in 🇵🇰’s banking sector related to #GCC-based sponsors.

Samba Bank is leaving 🇵🇰 🔜 after parent entity’s merger with NCB in Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦, & MergeCo Saudi National Bank’s decision to divest some assets. Silk Bank is on perpetual sale after its abysmal performance in #Pakistan 🇵🇰 despite benefitting from one of the highest equity injections till-date. It is to be sold 🔜 and IFC / Nomura / Bank Muscat / Gourmet Group along with others will take a massive hit on their investment.