Thread by @BDavisBriz

With her Cabinet taking shape as we speak, I'm looking forward to a very timely debate on what we can expect from Truss' Premiership & how Labour might respond #GuardianNewsroom

https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1567115645786804224

First @hugh_muir gives a quick background of the Tory Leadership campaign, noting that Sunak's defeat proving "he who welds the knife seldom wears the crown" & sets out the challenges faced by Truss domestically, internationally & within her own party #GuardianNewsroom

The panellists give their initial impression of Truss' appointment as PM. @jessicaelgot notes that Truss has "been a viable candidate" for some time, noting her loyalty to former PMs, keeping away from scandals & making no secret of her desire for the top job #GuardianNewsroom

However, Elgot says that Truss has often seemed implausible due to Tory MPs often publicly saying that she would not be fit to be PM. Notes only ~28% of MPs picked Truss as their 1st choice & less than 50% of Tory Selectorate so "lacks political capital"#GuardianNewsroom

Next @Ommasalma admits she didn't predict Truss becoming PM. Says Truss has "the awkwardness of May", but her performance improved during the hustings. Says Truss was able to win due to contrasting herself as the "Optimist" & promoting growth, compared to Sunak #GuardianNewsroom

Looking ahead, Shah says that Truss will be coming in to Downing Street with "a low bar" in terms of expectations, so will have to work to "stamp her authority" on her ambitious policy agenda #GuardianNewsroom

Final panellist @OwenJones84 reflects on appearing on @bbcquestiontime with Truss ahead of the #Brexit referendum, both advocating for leave - yet now, she has reinvented herself as an "Arch Brexiteer" #GuardianNewsroom

Jones argues that the Cost Of Living arguably "doomed" the last three Tory PMs - arguing it ultimately lead to Brexit, the rise of Corbyn & the post-pandemic squeeze on living standards #GuardianNewsroom

In order to avoid this, Jones predicts that there will be more of a focus on "culture war" politics to distract from squeeze in living standards #GuardianNewsroom

Jones also notes that Truss will be a much more ideological PM than Johnson, so it will be interesting to see how she reacts when her ideas "come up against electoral reality" #GuardianNewsroom

Turning to Truss' ability to deal with the energy crisis & cost of living crisis, Shah praises Truss' "brave" admission on the Kuensberg show by saying NI cuts are "fair"if it leads to economic growth as a sign that Truss will have courage of her convictions #GuardianNewsroom

Shah also says that Truss' idealism should "help give direction" to a Civil Service that has "lunged from crisis to crisis" since Brexit #GuardianNewsroom

However, Elgot argues how ideological one can be during a crisis of the nature we are facing - saying the reality is we will need intervene in markets to protect people from rising living costs, despite campaigning on a low-tax, small-government ticket #GuardianNewsroom

Jones agrees, saying that the current crisis we are in "does not suit the ideological bent of Truss". Notes Sunak was compelled to introduce furlough against his libertarian instincts, Truss will similarly need to intervene significantly on energy costs #GuardianNewsroom

Shah argues that Truss, like Thatcher, is pragmatic about the policies she is introducing to meet the challenges she will face. Believes that having a strategic end point will allow her the flexibility to "chop and change" policies to respond to events #GuardianNewsroom

On how a Truss govt will respond to 🇺🇦, Elgot says she felt it was always disingenuous to give Johnson special credit for 🇺🇦, as any other Tory MP, or indeed Starmer, would have acted in the same way. However, s unsure if Truss will view it as a "personal duty" #GuardianNewsroom

On 🇪🇺, Elgot says that Truss has made it clear that she will keep the Northern Ireland Protocol as her responsibility as PM. Says EU leaders often viewed Johnson administration as "unstable", so Truss has a chance to re-establish good relations #GuardianNewsroom

On how Starmer would approach a Truss govt, Jones says Labour will need to avoid the "self-enforced errors" of the Sunak campaign, who was often accused of "haranguing" or "mansplaining" to Truss during the campaigns. #GuardianNewsroom

Jones believes Starmer will avoid "acting macho" at the dispatch box. However, Jones also says Truss is a "gaff machine", so Labour will need to balance their attacks on her gaffs alongside avoiding looking chauvinistic #GuardianNewsroom

Shah disagrees saying Sunak & Starmer are both quite similar in terms of personality & Truss offers something different. While acknowledging she is gaff-prone, Shah says she's resilient, claiming Truss owns her "pork markets" speech as "the internet's 1st meme" #GuardianNewsroom

On energy prices, Jones says that Tories have "stolen" Labour positions on Windfall Taxes, which is problematic if Labour have no other positions. However, Elgot argues if it was seen as "inevitable", Truss may not gain much political credit for the policy #GuardianNewsroom

On Levelling Up, Shah believes she always viewed the policy as a "marketing slogan" for regional growth, and unsure if she'll continue to support it. Jones argues Levelling Up was a way of building voter support in the North so will need to continue #GuardianNewsroom

Turning to how Truss could unite the party, Elgot says while majority of MPs were "glad to see the back of Johnson", Red Wall MPs - who view Johnson's charisma as the reason for their win - will need reasons to back her. Says tax cuts may not be enough #GuardianNewsroom

Shah does not believe Truss will try and unify by consensus - believes that Truss will be more like Theresa May, who will build party unity by delivering results. Says Truss' Cabinet is "rather weak" as Truss is attempting to "limit friction" within her team #GuardianNewsroom

Jones says, unlike previous Tory PMs, he personally does not understand Truss' "shtick" - saying she lacks charisma or a big vision. Shah says that may, in fact, be her appeal #GuardianNewsroom

The webinar now moves on to a Q&A session #GuardianNewsroom

1st Q is on whether Truss will be "under the thumb" of the ERG. Shah predicts that they may be "prickly" around the Northern Ireland Protocol, but generally it will be whether higher-profile MPs within the group support Truss' positions #GuardianNewsroom

Jones believes that Truss will "over exaggerate" her "Leave credentials" in order to avoid the ERG bringing up the fact that she originally supported the Remain campaign #GuardianNewsroom

On how she will balance campaign promises vs actually leading, Elgot says that leadership competitions often leading to MPs "making promises they have no intention of keeping", so wouldn't take much stock in commitments Truss made on the campaign trail #GuardianNewsroom

On whether racism played a role in Sunak's defeat, Shah says "No". Notes that the vote was quite close, and notes that it is rank & file party membership that would appoint BAME candidates for election in the first place #GuardianNewsroom

Jones concedes that the Tory's have "stolen the march" on diversity & inclusion - in terms of female leaders and non-white frontbenchers. However, says that policies need to be considered, not the colour & creed of people enforcing the policies #GuardianNewsroom

On how Truss will need to manage Johnson, Shah notes it is still unclear what Johnson plans to do next - however, he notes that Johnson has already caused the downfall of the last 3 PMs, and has potential to bring down a 4th #GuardianNewsroom

Elgot says that Truss will be in a difficult position in terms of managing Johnson's Privileges Committee probe. She also believes Johnson will remain an MP and attempt a comeback at some stage #GuardianNewsroom

Jones says Truss played a "canny game" by supporting Johnson, as Sunak's disloyalty was widely seen as costing him the top job. Says that the only thing Truss can do to stop a Johnson comeback is to "avoid combusting in office" as Cummings predicts she will #GuardianNewsroom

Final Q is on how Opposition Parties can respond to a Truss government & offer an alternative, Jones notes Labour are currently ahead in the polls but still too soon to tell on how Truss' premiership will affect this #GuardianNewsroom

However, Jones warns that the Labour leadership needs to produce an alternative vision - nothing that the #EnoughIsEnough campaign now has more members than the Labour Party #GuardianNewsroom

Shah notes that the Tories are "uniquely vulnerable" at the moment, saying that, unlike 2017/19, there is no obvious party to enter a "confidence & supply deal" to enter in to, so a coalition of left-wing parties would offer a threat to the Tory party #GuardianNewsroom

However, both Elgot and Shah agree that, with the issues that divide them, it is unlikely that there will be a left-wing coalition any time soon #GuardianNewsroom

Really interesting discussion on what to expect from a Truss Premiership. Thanks to @OwenJones84 @jessicaelgot & @Ommasalma for your insights, to @hugh_muir for chairing & @guardian/@guardianevents for hosting! #GuardianNewsroom

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