Thread by @JBelcourt73

I wake up to the rumor mill going full tilt that Lyman and Izium have also fallen adding to the prize of Kupiansk. If true we have gone straight past Yay Go Ukraine! territory straight into OMG this is ludicrous territory.

True? I sure hope so. While I don't think my read that Ukraine would pursue a bite and hold strategy was wrong per se, the gains are still within a single fuel tanks range of the start lines, it appears I gave the Russians way too much credit for being able to mount a credible

defense near Kharkiv. This was part of a discussion last night on @MriyaReport when I got off work. @ChuckPfarrer, @RealCynicalFox, @Teoyaomiquu, @YAmzallagh and @Battlemoose01 and another guy whose name I did not catch (insert name here) if someone can tell me who it was.

They were talking various deficiencies they had noticed in overrun Russian formations and the Russian system of top-down control was preventing initiative and the of rallying of troops. I was able to add my own bit by pointing out the lack of concertina wire in any of the videos

I have seen. When I was in, the mech infantry rolled to the FTX's with rolls of the stuff strapped to the IFV's to set up hasty defenses. When laid thick enough it can even be used as a barrier to lighter AFV's. The Russians have had months to dig in and prepare. They did not do

any of it. No trench network to create defense in depth, no wire, no obstacles, no range stakes, no AFV firing positions and strong points near natural choke points, just trashy hobo camps. All that says no leadership. Now apparently the Russian army is routing and if Ukraine can

achieve offensive sustainment there really is nothing to keep this from becoming a pursuit. Last night IIRC it was either @JThomason88 or @John_A_Ridge that pointed out the claims for destroyed trucks had gone way up. They thought it was due to SOF ops... Nope, a tanks favorite

target (other than its own crew) is the truck. Lions eat wildebeests, tanks eat trucks it is the natural order of things. Suddenly high truck losses on the defender's side indicate breakthroughs. It also puts lie to the Russian fanboi claim that Russia is trying to draw Ukriane

into a sack. You don't leave trucks loaded with troops, supplies, C3 assets, towing guns etc behind, you keep them out of enemy hands so you can use them to sustain your own effort. We are now witnessing the biggest cauldron battles in Europe since 1945 and the only classic

penetration in depth at speed anywhere since 1991. The knock-on effects for Russia are going to echo for a long-long time. Where is the natural stop point? With so much of Russia's army cut off and encircled either near Izium or trapped in Kherson we could see the liberation of

most areas lost since Feb 24 before the snow hits, maybe even liberation of areas lost in 14-15. I don't want to get ahead of my skis but hope and dreams are sure dancing the sugar plums of victory past my eyes right now. If I am giddy, imagine what the feeling like is in

Kleptograd? Like I pointed out above the one thing this is all going to ride on is offensive sustainment. One of the other Russian rumors going around is that Ukraine does not have enough western kit to pull of sustainment. Thats a possibility, so it's also a challenge to us to

reach out to our leaders like @JohnBoozman, @SenTomCotton, and @RepFrenchHill to tell them make sure Ukraine can sustain and abide until she wins the liberation of her captured peoples and lands. It is up to us to continue our giving to fill in the gaps by supporting charities

like @MriyaAid and supporting military units like the @georgian_legion and to combat Russian dis-info. Something @ClintEhrlich doesn't seem to get about #WeAreNAFO and the #Fellas. We are weird, but we do not hurt Ukraine's cause. In the information spaces your Russian buddies

cannot grasp humor and ridicule. #NAFO is one giant global #roast of Russia. You take us and yourselves seriously, we don't. We laugh, you cry we laugh some more.

So until Ukraine wins on Ukraine's terms: Slava Ukraini! #RussiaIsATerroristState #GenocideOfUkrainians #genocide #UkraineWillWin #pedoPutin @mfa_russia <--- still losing now in whole city sized chunks at a time.

@threadreaderapp unroll please