Thread by @moporobbie

🧵A few things to keep in mind during the euphoria of overwhelmingly good news in Ukraine. #Perspectives

1: #UAF warriors & civilian support staff are undertaking enormous risk to push this offensive through. I am reminded of the 1448 US soldiers killed on their last day in Vietnam. War is cruel. Many more lives will be ended or changed forever before there is 🇺🇦 victory and peace.

2: This victory is not unexpected. Anyone paying close attention would surmise that 🇷🇺 forces & proxies would eventually collapse. I am reminded of @TrentTelenko @CraigM_Regan @KofmanMichael & others whose analysis predicted 🇷🇺 culmination & collapse by end of summer.

3: Still the abrupt pace of this collapse defies expectation. Many experts predicted 🇺🇦 to win. I can’t think of any who predicted THIS kind of victory. This points to the incredible OPSEC of the UAF.

Even experts saw what 🇺🇦 wanted them to see.

Or kept their mouths shut too.

4: the months of talk about imminent offensives in Kherson seem to have been #Maskirovka on par with some of the most brilliant military deceptions in history.

The SunTzu quotations are flying on Twitter these days.

I prefer Casey Stengel’s simpler:
‘Hit ‘em where they ain’t’

5: We must also brace ourselves for what may be the inevitable uncovering of rampant Russian #warcrimes.

#Irpin, #Bucha #Hostumel were littered with tortured corpses, a reality that tempered the glory of the huge victory outside Kiev & Sumy in March.

6: Some of the liberated areas, Izyum & Kupyansk for instance have only been occupied for months. We will see clear evidence of Russian brutality there. We know of more in Mariupol, Kherson & Zaporizhia of course.

7: But when UAF liberates places like Luhansk, Donetsk Crimea etc the challenge will be twofold. Not only will the war crimes need to be uncovered, & the guilty brought to Justice but there will also need to be a fair reckoning of collaboration vs survival.

8: For eight years & counting these 🇺🇦 territories have been under the brutal grip of a criminal regime. What impossible choices did families need to make to survive and avoid said brutality? What of the thousands brainwashed into pro🇷🇺 sentiments?

9: I am reminded of South Africa’s ‘truth & reconciliation’ commissions who documented, unraveled & somewhat helped heal effects of apartheid brutality. I am confident that a 🇺🇦nation whose moral compass seems so well honed will navigate these questions.

But it won’t be easy.

10: Likewise the tens of thousands of LNR & DNR soldiers who fought against Ukraine. The vast majority were conscripted, given no choice but to fight their countrymen. But some did so willingly for various reasons. Sifting them out will be an enormous challenge.

11: The tens of thousands of human beings in the Russian armed forces who are fleeing in terror & being hunted killed, wounded, or captured are another matter. So many of them joined up under false pretenses, or had no choice. The jails, homeless shelters, & mental institutions

12: across Russia have been emptied to fill Putins war machine’s ranks.

Shall we ‘kill them all & let god sort them out?’

No moral nation would advocate for this. Rather, as in all matters JUSTICE must prevail.

13: JUSTICE is extremely hard to define & even harder to attain. Thousands of years of human development have led us to today’s still imperfect systems. But just because we are not perfect doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try.

14: The criminals in Russias forces must be brought to Justice. The innocent soldiers (and there must also be at least some) should be accorded their Rights. All must be trwated according to Geneva guidelines. Even the criminals. If their journey ends in The Hague, so be it.

15: My own country is imperfect, but one thing of which I am most proud is that our own military keeps incredibly high moral standards. Atrocities & mistakes have been committed by our forces. But the majority of perpetrators end up in Leavenworth.

16: So yes. Justice. Rule of Law. These are what separates us from our ancient ancestors & what seems to separate Ukrainian’s brave nascent democracy from the imperialist Russian mafia/military partnership over which they strive to prevail.

17: Also when ‘kill or capture’ choices arise don’t forget that prisoners can be EXCHANGED. Thousands of 🇺🇦 POWs are in brutal Russian captivity. All deserve freedom & the more Russians we have to exchange for them the sooner they will be free. #RememberAzovstal #FreeCossackGundi

18: I’m assuming a lot here of course. That Donetsk, Luhansk, Crimea etc will fall. That Russia won’t resort to nuclear, chemical or biological weapons to poison our victory. That 🇷🇺 won’t use #Enohodar as ransom. Putin has shown us who he is. Evil. Prepare for the worst.

19: But he has also shown us that he & his system are inherently weak because they prize the wrong values and thereby promote corruption. Corrupt systems always fail eventually, choked by a value system that incentivizes loyalty over intelligence. Smart people beat these guys.

20: Finally, it’s worth stopping to acknowledge the personal journey I have made from helpless observer to vehement activist. I’m a small fry but have worked very hard to educate myself, educate others, & raise a bit of awareness & money for the 🇺🇦 cause.

21: Here’s hoping some of the NVG’s or tourniquets we helped provide the UAF have helped save some lives. We have more concerts coming in the spring. Here’s hoping we can benefit reconstruction efforts by that time, instead of military ones.

22: Finally big thanks to the folks who have taught us all so much on these subjects: @kamilkazani @TrentTelenko @RALee85 @WarintheFuture @KofmanMichael @IAPonomarenko @SpencerGuard @walterlekh @walter_report @LanguageIearner @CraigM_Regan @MalcontentmentT @shashj @olgatokariuk

@SarahAshtonLV @MalcolmNance @ChuckPfarrer @DKThomp @War_Mapper @JominiW and so many others who have helped me learn & do what I can to help others do what they can.

The war is not over. But it’s ok to say. Today is a good day.

As always if you are interested in a solid vetted #twitterlist of sources covering Russias illegal invasion of Ukraine…

Here is mine: twitter.com/i/lists/149801…