Thread by @MsFuddleDuddle

OK. With Justin Trudeau's definite announcement that he *IS* staying on for a 4th election, allow me to recap my #cdnpoli megathread on why this was always the case. Read on for why I believe he will serve 15 years like dad rather than 10 as conventional wisdom would have it. 1/

2/ Start with this RCI article (2022 March 12) about his insistence upon staying. I started with this one just to wash off the negative vibes from the hive-mind #cdnmediafailed pundits.

My favourite parts, translated by Google. #cdnpoli

ici-radio--canada-ca.translate.goog/nouvelle/18684…

3/

"Will Justin Trudeau try to match Wilfrid Laurier?

Behind the scenes, the Prime Minister says he is « enthusiastic » at the idea of ​​leading his party to the next election."

(That should have been obvious)

#cdnpoli

4/

"Behind closed doors, during a cabinet meeting, PMJT decides that the time has come to send a warning shot to possible aspirants in the cabinet."

#cdnpoli

5/ "According to a Liberal source, Justin Trudeau « does not give the impression that he intends to leave ». No one seems to want to push him out either. « We do not see the emergence of factions », underlines another Liberal source."

(Stop trying to make fetch happen)

#cdnpoli

6/ "A close associate of the Prime Minister is categorical: 🚨 Justin Trudeau is not going away. 🚨 The Prime Minister is absolutely focused on getting results for Canadians on climate, access to housing, health, and protecting Canada's place in the world."

#cdnpoli

7/ "Several Liberals do not see Justin Trudeau packing up instead of fighting, for example, against Pierre Poilievre or Jean Charest."

(And certainly not Patrick O'Toole McFlipFlop Brown, who's long since gone from the #cpcldr race)

#cdnpoli

8/ " « It wouldn't surprise me at all if he tries to equal Wilfrid Laurier's record », says Liberal MP Alexandra Mendès about a possible fourth term for Justin Trudeau."

*NB: (Mendès is also deputy speaker)*

#cdnpoli

9/ Some elements of this article bother me, however. There are, or were at least, grumbling fairweather Liberals / Blue Liberals who seem intent upon trying to undermine him for what appear to be selfish interests.

#cdnpoli

10/ Quote:

"Echoes from the Liberal caucus point to growing dissatisfaction among Ontario and Atlantic backbenchers with the Prime Minister's agenda, seen as too left-wing."

#cdnpoli

11/ Left-wing how? Social issues? Because he's not a racist/sexist jerk or has zero tolerance for those who are (and are predominantly cons)? Because he doesn't want murder weapons proliferating and has no time for 🇺🇸-style arguments about a nonexistent 2nd Amendment?

#cdnpoli

12/ Oh, here's a clue. It's because they think he's too much of a spendthrift and would apparently rather languish in the wilderness by anointing a banker during an age of economic turmoil and populism.

#cdnpoli

13/ Quote:

"Should LPC make a break from PMJT? This q could favor an outside candidate like Mark Carney, fmr Gov of the Bank of🇨🇦. Several Libs have seen in this public outing a clear sign that the economist is still seriously considering embarking on a possible race."

#cdnpoli

14/ Don't get me wrong, I don't think Carney's a bad guy. I just don't think a *banker* is the right candidate for an age where anger at "elites" is paramount.

#cdnpoli

15/ As an aside, I'll have more to say later about how PMJT and team are responding to intel calling for the Liberals to straddle or move towards the mythical centre, and how they're looking to do that without compromising their progressive vision. #cdnpoli

16/ But right now I'm just recapping this particular article from RCI and what it says in there.

#cdnpoli

17/ Anyway, where was I? Oh, right. Fortunately, it appears that PMJT has no interest in anyone's griping or pontification. In fact, his elevating of dynamic ministers is *not* an indication at all that he is "bowing out" anytime soon.

#cdnpoli

18/ Quote:

"If the health crisis and the convoy gave the PM a hard time, several deputies welcome the government's response to the Ukrainian crisis. Several Liberals are delighted with the performance of the female trio at the head of important ministries."

#cdnpoli

19/ "If the image of Justin Trudeau has faded since 2015, MP Alexandra Mendès believes that he saved the day by knowing how to surround himself."

(In other words: Teamwork makes the dream work.)

#cdnpoli

20/ To borrow from Mark Twain, reports of PMJT's political obituary have been grossly exaggerated. The only person I'll believe is PMJT himself. Not Chantal Hébert, not Don Martin, not Brian Lilley, not any of the "anonymous sources" sniping from the cheap seats.

#cdnpoli

21/ Or to borrow from a more modern take (if 25+ years can be considered modern? I guess by comparison to Mark Twain it can)

"I don't want to take advice from fools, so I'll just figure everything is cool, until I hear it from you."

#cdnpoli

22/ Moving on to the next major highlighted artifact pointing to Justin Trudeau's insistence that he is staying on as Liberal Party leader for the foreseeable future: The NDP-Liberal détente (that was not, and is not, a "coalition"). #cdnpoli

23/ Susan Delacourt, Toronto Star, 22 March 2022

"The surprise announcement is not good news for anyone counting on seeing Trudeau replaced ... whether that’s a new #cpcldr *or anyone hoping to succeed him at the helm of the Liberal party.*"

#cdnpoli

archive.ph/8eSrr

24/ "Trudeau can stretch out his tenure as prime minister to at least a decade, as Stephen Harper nearly did from early 2006 to late 2015"

*At least*.

An especially significant marker psychologically, as @PierreJDupont pointed out. #cdnpoli #HarperChase

archive.ph/JZf2E

25/ (Apparently Twitter only lets you send out 24 tweets in a thread at a time, so I'll have to break this into fits and starts. Bear with me.)

#cdnpoli

26/ Delacourt continues "Whether one is a fan or foe of the current prime minister, the deal is evidence once again that it’s a mistake to count Trudeau out. It’s also not a great idea to postpone that root canal until he’s gone, either." #cdnpoli

27/ The deal has nothing to do with Singh's pension or PMJT's off-ramp. It really is about stability and "avoiding the day-to-day blackmail BS" coming from one side of the aisle. Note the lack of word "retirement" in this Aaron Wherry piece. #cdnpoli

archive.ph/n3BkZ

28/ Talks have been off and on since 2019 in fact. Pandemic sidelined a lot of things. But a sense of urgency picked up as a result of convoy vitriol and Singh becoming a father and finally growing up. #cdnpoli

archive.ph/XOOMV

29/ Note the language escalation in PMJT answer to (I think) Mackenzie Grey from CTV. I have added subtitles to this clip. He insists "as I have said a number of times, I'm planning on continuing to serve Canadians through and beyond the next election." He's going for 15 #cdnpoli

30/ What were those number of times? I count two on video, plus the oft-reported firm statements (of indeterminate number) with cabinet and caucus. The first was the Oct 2021 cabinet shuffle post-election (I think it was Tonda Mac asking?) #cdnpoli

31/ Next was his year-ender in Dec 2021 with Evan Solomon where he couldn't have been more clear #cdnpoli

32/ This isn't about avoiding "lame-duck-ism" or whatever other cynical dismissals come from the usual suspects in #CdnMediaFailed. This is about winning. He was literally born to do this job. What else would he do if not this? #cdnpoli

33/ Before he started throwing shade for no good reason at Zelensky, Lawrence Martin of the Globe wrote about the possibility or even likelihood of a PMJT fourth term. #cdnpoli

archive.ph/3kiEI

34/ A second Trump term would be DISASTROUS for the world but (if I may be slightly cynical) a political win for PMJT as he gets to run against the "Trump Republicans North" as a contrast with the LPC. #cdnpoli

35/ And that's doubly so if he runs against Skippy (Narrator: He will run against Skippy. CPC does NOT want a so-called "moderate" milquetoast of the Brown/Charest variety.) #cdnpoli

36/ Before he changed his tune (most likely due to his editors realizing they'd let one slip past the gate, or he hit his head and the screws jostled around a bit) even BRIAN LILLEY of all people was saying that PMJT wasn't going anywhere! #cdnpoli

archive.ph/SStkI

37/ "Is the man who just won his 3rd election really about to call it quits? While I think the answer is no, people who are smarter than I am insist that he is headed for the exit. Several commentators have said PMJT is ready to depart the political stage." #cdnpoli

38/ "Leaving now would be an admission that he can’t control *that faction of his party* that thinks he should move on. Faced with a battle, Trudeau is more likely to double down, and it often works for him." #cdnpoli

39/ "My money is on Trudeau sticking around for another fight — a chance to get a majority again and prove himself. In my view, Trudeau won’t leave until the voters tell him that it’s time." #cdnpoli

40/ Now to be fair, "people who are smarter than" Brian Lilley is a pretty wide net to cast. And yes, he did change his tune, and now even Chantal Hébert is swimming in the same swamp with him and Goldstein and WK and all the rest who are salivating for PMJT to leave. #cdnpoli

41/ Which is all the more reason I think he will stay. "As I have said a number of times" make note of that. The only thing he's tired of is answering the same stupid question over and over again. So he'll just have to show them because they won't listen to his words. #cdnpoli

42/ After September 10th, when some other idiot in the #cdnpoli PPG asks for the eleventeen-gazillionth time if he's going to run again and adds "do you think you can beat Pierre Poilievre?" an understandably exasperated PMJT should respond with the following:

43/ And finally, just a reminder of my own stance on filtering out the naysayers from my own feed. If only because I'm going to pin this (revamped) thread and leave it there until the end of the decade. #cdnpoli

44/ And break. #cdnpoli

45/ OK, I had to delete a whole thread (I may sound obsessive, but I want this whole project connected in one piece for continuity purposes). #cdnpoli Bear with me, because the way that Twitter handles extensive threaded posts --

46/ And I'm back. Backtracking a bit, but here once again is the article from TVO about the former Ontario premier, Bill Davis, and how a confidence and supply agreement was the renaissance of his career and could be PMJT's too. #cdnpoli

archive.ph/5Fm4i

47/ The second Delacourt article about the NDP-Liberal agreement. The takeaway quote from the headline reveals PMJT's insights. "I'm having too much fun" never sounded like the refrain of a man looking to retire.

archive.ph/wwOLK

48/ And then another Lawrence Martin column, dated April 13, 2022. The cons have nothing else to run on but Trudeau Derangement Syndrome and it fails them every time. #cdnpoli

archive.ph/FmQM6

49/ Quote:

"Pierre and Justin Trudeau have vanquished five different Conservative leaders, enabling them to rule Canada for 21 years thus far. The number will likely extend to 24 and maybe more should Justin Trudeau decide to run again." #cdnpoli

50/ Paul Wells, of whom I am not a fan (it appears he doesn't like PMJT much either), nevertheless notes that even the NDP's den mother, Anne McGrath, agreed that PMJT had no intention of going anywhere. Substack column dated April 26, 2022. #cdnpoli

archive.ph/s28bx

51/ And then there's the Skippy factor. Michael Harris nails it in the Hill Times, May 18, 2022 (paywalled). Bird is the word, and if PMJT is to have a swan song, it'll be after sending the loonie-economist pigeon back to the cuckoo's nest. #cdnpoli

archive.ph/Rtyjt

52/ More about Skippy.

Evan Scrimshaw is one of Canada's best young political columnists, and here's his take on the media-manufactured "consensus" about the "inevitability" of PMPP and PMJT's supposed "shelf life." #cdnpoli

archive.ph/uNXFt

53/ #cdnpoli

Quote:

"Yes, the history of 10+ year Federal govts is short, but ... [several provincial govts] have all done it in in the last 25 years. 'Something has never happened before, therefore it won’t now' has been a very bad guiding light to politics in recent years...

54/ The notion that Skippy is on cruise control to Rideau Hall is so absurd as to be barely worth discussing, but within the context of the current political moment, it’s hard to see his opening." #cdnpoli

55/ Deal with it, pundits. If PMJT has a swan song, it'll be defeating the pigeon, plucking his feathers, and making chicken nuggets out of him. What's he going to do, let Freeland suffer the Hillary Clinton treatment? He's too chivalrous for that! (More on that later) #cdnpoli

56/ Polling from June 2022. PMJT is in relatively good shape for a seven-year incumbent.

(I won't get into the temporary -- and perhaps outlier -- lull reported on ad nauseam and analyzed to death in the papers, based on polling from this firm later in the summer.) #cdnpoli

57/ But I did connect that June polling to the aforementioned Scrimshaw piece. #cdnpoli

58/ Cue some interesting comparisons. #cdnpoli

59/ Now I know Scrimshaw hedged against using historical trends or patterns to prejudge the future, but humour me for a minute. Think about the 2016 US election and the circumstances of that before you go saying "Freeland will go up against Poilievre." #cdnpoli

60/ An eight-year incumbent, constitutionally prohibited from running again, hands off the torch to his would-be successor. The departing president is a charismatic, telegenic, Kennedy-esque *male* leader. His would-be successor, an easily-demonized *woman*... #cdnpoli

61/ The right-wing opponent is a bull-in-the-china-shop, move-fast-and-break-things rage-harnessing populist, mainlining raw testosterone and riling up rallies with simplistic, primal cries of FREEDOM! and LOCK HER UP! and MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! #cdnpoli

62/ And what happens? He wins, in large part because the media fell in love with the idea of chaos for ratings -- and vilified the "nasty woman" as "overprepared," "condescending," and "unlikeable." #cdnpoli

63/ For all the flak he got, to the point of Obama Derangement Syndrome, Barack Obama probably would have won a 3rd term against Donald Trump if he was constitutionally eligible to do so. Hillary Clinton simply could not overcome the institutional biases that she faced. #cdnpoli

64/ Now transpose that scenario, however inexact, onto Canada. Chrystia Freeland and Hillary Clinton alike are accomplished, smart as a whip, and would by all accounts be excellent leaders of their respective countries. The problem? 👩 ♀️ #cdnpoli

65/ And they will pay for it in the harsh glare of image-conscious politics where unfortunately, it is still a "man's world." Hillary already did. Chrystia may not get the chance. And she might be OK with that. #cdnpoli

66/ Unlike Barack Obama, Justin Trudeau can serve as many terms as he wants, and as many as Canadian voters are willing to give. If Obama would have won a 3rd term against Trump, PMJT still has a very good chance of winning a 4th against Skippy. #cdnpoli

67/ Nothing about that polling (or even later turbulence) suggests that PMJT is "in trouble." New numbers will roll in regularly for Skippy, but his initial first impression saw his approvals dropping and he was shrinking the accessible pool. #cdnpoli

archive.ph/1nE88

68/ So the point of this thread (and its reboots!) is all about pleading with #cdnpoli Liberals and progressives to STOP doing the cons' work and inventing an #lpcldr race that does not exist. PMJT has been adamant he is running again. Period. He has to...

Because it's 2016.

69/ 69? #cdnpoli

70/ Almost there. I decided not to send any traffic to a Don Martin column arguing forcefully in favour of the "shelf life" argument, that even he has to concede has a caveat: The aforementioned Skippy factor that you'll be hearing a lot about over the next 3 years. #cdnpoli

71/ "Trudeau has enjoyed plenty of luck in politics, so unless ... Pierre Poilievre pivots somewhat into mainstream thinking, the hard-right Conservatives could fall short of what’s required to unseat Trudeau from a fourth mandate." #cdnpoli

72/ "A cagey political operative recently insisted to me that, having been involved in the Trudeau negotiations for a power-influencing deal with the NDP, she’s convinced Trudeau is running for re-election to give the cement time to set on his legacy." #cdnpoli

73/ Skippy won't pivot. He's had one volume setting for nearly two decades as an MP and career Reform-a-Con hack. He's got more baggage than an airline terminal, fresh meat for the Liberals to bombard him with when an election *does* finally come along. #cdnpoli

74/ But what about how he's supposedly "speaking to economic anxiety" (by bloviating about bitcoin and jerking off about "Justin-flation")?

The Liberals answered with a plan for that too. #cdnpoli

archive.ph/HEZtG

75/ So for the umpteen gazillionth time, PMJT isn't going anywhere, and with the CPC going full MAGA, Canadians will flock to the progressive polar opposite. That "cement on his legacy" probably isn't going to dry for a long, long time. ⭐️💫🤩 #cdnpoli

76/ I was upset about a Chantal column on this subject one morning (June 20, 2022), so I added a counter-argument from pollster Greg Lyle in the Hill Times. I guess he had to add some dramatic effect by referring to Skippy as a "juggernaut." LOL. #cdnpoli

archive.ph/9LM5a

77/ "Lyle said that Trudeau will be the best candidate to lead the Liberal Party in the next election. He argued that a new leader would be untried and unproven." #cdnpoli #TrudeauMustStay

78/ "Chrystia Freeland has got some decent profile as a minister, but there’s lots of finance ministers who have not made a successful transition for leader. ... If you put Mark Carney into debate with Pierre Poilievre, I’m not sure how well he’s going to come out." #cdnpoli

79/ And it's not like PMJT doesn't know that the task ahead of him and his party will be in "defining" Skippy as the crank he is. Fortunately, Skippy's doing a lot of their work for them. He's had one volume setting for almost two decades. This is who he is. #cdnpoli

80/ Chantal Hébert and Don Martin need to retire to Florida and get a room. PMJT is more than prepared for Skippy, and for the challenges of the next three years and well beyond. Find a new topic to write about, because HE IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE!!! #cdnpoli

81/ From July 29, 2022, I added a clip from The Herle Burly. P.J. Fournier asserts that despite the pollercoaster, PMJT remains the best asset for the LPC -- especially in Quebec. He also knows cats, and can see that PMJT has nine lives. #cdnpoli

82/ From August 23, 2022, a spot-on observation from Gerald Butts. If anyone knows the PM best, it's his longtime buddy from McGill. #cdnpoli #JustWatchHim

83/ From August 26, 2022. Excerpted from a column by Liberal strategist, Andrew Perez. Oh, what a glorious day it would be, if the Conservatives broke apart like 1993. #cdnpoli

archive.ph/dKqn7

84/ Which takes us now (at last!) to the present moment. September of 2022. PMJT's official-official declaration (after all of this, headed to the LPC retreat in Vancouver, just after Labour Day and ahead of the #cpcldr frat party and Parliament's return in the fall. #cdnpoli

85/ The full story, from the Toronto Star. #cdnpoli

archive.ph/qGmZU

86/ Now, I mentioned earlier that there are some grumbles about him supposedly alienating the mythical centre. But one can be assured that LPC already have intel that will allow them to strategize for how to bring the mushy middle "back home." #cdnpoli archive.ph/Y45zB

87/ In fact, they probably already have that plan in motion. And the "experts" are coming around to confirm it. So much for "Justin-Flation". Say it with me: The budget will balance itself... #cdnpoli

archive.ph/do6lY

88/ I hate this number. I hate the number 88 even though it's a lucky number in Chinese numerology and I always had a soft spot for the Oldsmobile Eighty-Eight. No, I hate 88 because #PierrePoilievreIsAFascist. So, pass. #cdnpoli

89/ Taylor Swift's number. Well, that's a good place to end. Justin Trudeau was always going to run again, Pierre Poilievre is going to be his opponent, no election until 2025, long live the Queen, oh, and Happy Birthday Maggie Trudeau. You, and JT, deserve all the best. #cdnpoli