Thread by @Qnie_Addis

#Negotiations

1/ TPLF is facing serious setbacks in the battlefield, despite rearmmamanet and logistical support from Egypt and the UN. The Americans are convinced the only way to keep #TPLF viable is to bring them to the negotiation table.

2/ The US and probably EU have strong armed the AU to be included in the negotiation in some capacity; to make sure TPLF gets a better deal than it deserves based on it's current military standing.

3/ If the GoE refuses, then the sanctions and 'genocide' determination will be reactivated. Behind th scenes, the cosponsors of #HR6600 have increased from 9 to 18 between April and Sptember! In a way this negotiation is between the USG and GoE!

4/ The negotiations will be mainly along these dimentions:

- Existence of TPLF
- Disarmament of TPLF
- The status of Welkait
- Justice

5/ Worst case scenario:
TPLF continuing as a political and military entity, Welkait and other contested lands given back to Tigray, No justice

Best scenario: TPLF dissolved, contested lands back to Amhara, TPLF leaders face justice

6/ Most probably the pragmatic scenario will be somewhere in between.

IMO the GoE should insist on two nonnegotiables: Welkait and the disarmament of TPLF. Anything, less than this will just postpone the inevitable which is TPLF staging another insurrection.

#RedLines