Thread by @HeliosRunner

1/ Mid Day report : #Izium to #Severodonetsk area - 13/09/2022 (yeah, day first!)
Dozens of reports are coming in & we have at the same time a clear view of the situation in some areas & it is totally unclear in others. Only things certain: Ru are existing the zone w hard losses

2/ Today with direct contact to locals in diff cities -via TG contact - i had confirmation that Ru were totally moving out several cities like #Svetove or #Kreminna which was still very surprising to me as i thought Russia would want to keep a line of defense, in order to protect

3/ Their "north". so the possibility for the Ukrainians army to surrender their previous "frontier" of LNR established in 2017. but apprently they are really moving out (i'll talk about it and about possible consequences)
& then, later we have received infos from direct sources

4/ that confirmed Russian were out of #Lyman, #Sviatohirsk or getting out of yampil.
and then Gaidai directly confirmed the Russian were totally out of #Kreminna ... but Ukr troops were still not in the city!! only partisans raised flags (like in a lot of others settlements!).

5/ so it seems right now that there are still some areas where we believed some Russians were fighting for their lives.. in other cases, they left deep inside the perimeter, and in others they are told to keep some villages ...
this is totally insane.
Globally though moving out!

6/ This will go in history books & it will be quite interesting to know exactly what is going now. Ukr forces are moving cautiously & do not rush forward, first to avoid major counter attacks but also to secure all the perimeters & mark mined field or ammo dumps left behind.

7/ There is also a big job about going to contact with the civilians in each villages, cities, to understand exactly their knowledge of past Ru defensive positions, depot, warehouses etc, to register everything & also to take reports of all the "traitors" who helped the Orcs...

8/ then, that being said, the map we thought we would look at from 2 days ago is no longer valid. we still don't know if it's a real " retreat plan" or simply a total uncoordinated Berezina.
so this is how we can envision the actual situation :
Ru option for Defense zone 1 is

9/ certainly "gone" forever..
Ru option for Defense in the Zone 2, in order to have a "buffer zone" to protect its really vital claim on LNR/DPR is not even secure right now, & we don't know if it is part of their intention anyway.
Gaidai reports Ru leaving the ENTIRE zone..

10/ so what we could "witness" in coming week is a total crawl back to first position ante feb 2022. "hiding" behind their fortified lines in so called "indépendant #Luhansk territories" but then two options :
A/ With all their forces back in the area Kremlin orders them to push

11/ forward and trying to stay in the area 3 as a "gain". as Putin said he absolutely wants Luhansk & Donetsk (lol).
or B, they hide behind lines/fortifications & rivers, & tries this time to play "defense" only of the zone, & maybe even claim to their population that now they

12/ are only defending Russ interests & friends territory against NATO & tries to rally the population to his fight, even claims a necessary increase of recruits to go to war... (everything still possible right now).
So that is for the Russian part, of the ongoing major changes

13/ NB as I pointed out to my late update last night, still remains then the future question of (ravito :) logistic though.
because before the war, Ukr would have never shelled or destroyed train hub and so on Ru territory, but now, like in #Belgorod it's full time war, so, the

14/ the only true secure line (railway network) going south to help with logistics directly to LNR/DNR will be directly destroyed and then Russia will have to go the southeast route & detour 500km..
which is going (would be) to be the worst nightmare of their life!! logistic!!

15/ a small reminder of what is necessary for only one Ru BTG to work "effectively"
Thanks to the work of Henry @HN_Schlottman making a very serious pro "guesstimate" of the actual needs.
For sure, it will shorten their needs in Trucks & maintenance, but la "guerre du rail" is

16/ is even worse to fight for russians, because if you rely only on a thousands long railway network you'll see hundreds of SOF/Partisans etc going to destroy rails all day long!!
& 2+2+2 days of shortage will deeply impact the Russian then. Hell on earth for them...
So if the

17/ plan of Putin is to crawl back to a defensive shell in LNR/DNR & expecting to "wait" for a truss or worse to try to go forward from only one area.. that's a TERRIBLE calculus he is making then.
Of course on the first stage, 10k of soldiers in one single area can do damages..

18/ because Ukr troops after a while are all going to regroup to refocus, & to put all their strength on one precise area instead of thousands, & then missiles/ himars & Howitzers w spec ammo will "hammer" the defense.
so again..hell on earth for Russians! (too bad! nope)

19/ To wrap the "russian part" up - i have no clue what is really going on of course, & i just try to clarify situation for ppl with no knowledge abt it. but Putin can decide something diff in the next 48h & we'll see then if how it goes..
right now, "smells good" to me!
also u

20/ need to know that several intel reports (UK & others) explain that prestigious Russian army unit severely degraded in #Kharkiv counteroffensive.
Russia's 1st Guards Tank Army – designated to protect Moscow in case of attack and lead counterattacks against NATO countries –

21/ took part in the chaotic retreat from #Kharkiv Oblast. Their tank crew were not prepared at all contrary to Ukr forces that are practicing now for months in hiding, rolling and sniping, equivalent of an NFL team in December, that would "play" a college team now.
Orgy!

22/ Also now thousands of Ukrainian SBU everywhere (Security Service of Ukraine) (here in #Kupyansk) .
have deployed (with territorials) in the previously occupied cities and the main logistic hub in order to back Ukrainian forces as they swiftly move forwards now.

23/ As for the Ukrainians now..
what we know is what we are "coming from" but we are not sure yet about their direct strategy here. i mean we do know for the long run.. but right now we have no clue of the direct orders concerning the areas asked to be under swift control..

24/ only 3 days ago that was the map (with red lines) seems years ago & right now (add the arrows) we still don't know if they want to push as strong up North/East to the border (which present some interesting tactical/strategical advantage) but also can stretch the line to thin

25/ & present the risk of being caught between the hammer and the anvil. (well in the south you don't risk nothing no more as they are all moving away).. but what about north frontier., right?
because last time we "checked" there were still up to 40 BTGs near Belgorod & 6/8 Kursk

26/ The actual "conundrum" for Ukr is actually going to be more about protecting all this new frontier, how, & to what degree..
let's take the actual "best case scenario" & it could be 630 km to protect now. also you don't watch each inch of the frontier, you need to establish a

27/ an "interactive" buffer zone, w diff degree of defense & moving troops materials, to protect all this area. & even if you only want to "survey" they area from afar with minimum territorial defense, you certainly need to move troops still in the north of the country right here

28/ The real good thing right now is that you have all the western intel to tell you far in advance about Ru movements - well prepared troops with high knowledge of recent military best equipment & a tons of "territorials" defense you can ask to do the "basic" jobs there. but now

29/ there is still a Ton of work to do on this part of the defense near the border. here you witnessed the state in end 2020 of the (in)famous project "wall" started in 2014 but crippled with delay & money "disappearing" etc. the result was this :
so.. there is work to complete.

30/ and i'm not even starting now with all the logistic... all this new gain are going to imply for Ukr, & the fact that, like already now, all along the borders, everyday, Russia is shelling from behind his frontier, all the cities or villages within a 20km reach distance.

31/ but, and i almost forgot to post...
the good thing now is that about 300km (of Ukr forces if you will) out of this 360km of recent front line, are going to be redeploy, if Ru moves out of Luhansk, directly to the new front line.. & it's going to be a all another "show"
End.