Thread by @lxeagle17

I don’t want to debate the margin, but I do think two things are becoming clearer every day.

(1) Shapiro, who is spending massively on the airwaves, is heavily favored against Mastriano, who is broke.
(2) Shapiro is likely to outrun Fetterman (+10 in the poll)

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1570789705574416384

By any metric, whether it’s fundamentals (money + partisan lean + ticket-splitting tendencies in gubernatorial races) or polling (topline + favorables), Shapiro is a very heavy favorite right now.

Shapiro is at 54% already, and his favorables are the inverse of Mastriano’s (which are underwater by double digits). You need a big swing *even if* Mastriano collects all undecideds — but that’s not as easy for him to do, because his campaign is broke and can’t spend.

And @SplitTicket_, we found gubernatorial races to be way more likely to diverge from the state’s presidential lean.

#PASen race will likely be close. I don’t think we can say that as confidently about #PAGov yet based on what we know.

split-ticket.org/2022/07/05/how…