Thread by @HeliosRunner

Hello There!
let's be honest, today, 21st of September is a very dark day for #Ukraine
I told you yesterday, not to joke about it. sorry to be "realistic" abt it.. but here we are, his plan of sending hundred thousands more troops in the free country of Ukraine is becoming real

2/ you are going to read hundred of "analysis" this coming days, but here are kind of hard facts to be considered.
about 300k reservists have just been officially called back to fight (serve).
Also, declaring that all men who have previously SERVED, (about few millions) are

3/ now directly, under the will of RU MOD (because this is now officially a PARTIAL state of war and partial general conscription (he is avoiding to put all the families of cronies associate, in danger, as predicted long ago). Also what it means is that they are going to

4/ to put a lots of administrative areas (Oblast) under martial law, (certainly the ones close to the borders) which would allow them to do exactly what they did in other places, just taking young men, if needed, & directly sending them to the front. no asking no way to go to an

5/ an administrative court, to uphold the "obligation" etc.
Niet. just go, or you can be shot right there (or the equivalent of modern gulag at best). that will also allow them to track all the Ru partisans and avoid a due process of Trial.. directly to torture chambers...

6/ Now, this is of course a major fear for a lot of population in Russia, of "regular people"
who are looking now to GTFO out of Russia (research for getting out of Russia is now exploding on Google search index)
reminder :

https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1570034989382729730

7/ Now, as for the occupied territories & the referendum, he implies that whatever happens next, it would be the western NATO countries that are trying to destroy Russia, so now they need to defend their country..
& Putin explained they will do by all mean. including new weapons

8/ so i see "journalists" not understanding it or saying : well if he says so, he won't do, etc.. i think they really don't get it now. it's not about nuke right now. Putin is sending in coming weeks ten thousands of soldiers everywhere... so the line are going to be "frozen".

9/ about weapons there a whole lot of other possibilities like droping a couple bomb the equivalent of the famous US "MOAB" on a city like #Kramatorsk which is the symbol of Ukraine resistance since 2014 or Zaporijia or Mykholaiv.. just to show, this is our limit now. move away.

10/ And later, if necessary, he is ready to use hyper veloce weapons with special warheads.
it's the first he, himself, says it, and that ENGAGE him to the eyes of all his "capo".
i told you, he is like a mafia Boss. he can't allow the wolf pack to come at him. This is serious.

11/ he is not going to absolutely look to use it. he still wants what he said, the Donbass, and that's it! he is going to through everything and the kitchen sink to our face, to make it come true!
Now on an "operative" point of view, he will certainly try, first thing first, to

12/ regain all the loss territories up to the Oskil river & donets river, & everywhere in the south where he wants to "officially" consolidate the gain.
and then from there maybe he'll try to gain all the Donbas again.

13/ & the HUGE problem now is that is a lose lose game for Ukraine & western countries, as you certainly will have to go back to the "defensive" action only and fighting more months going backward, trying to put max Ru meat into the mincing machine.
and winter is coming..

14/ but at the same time this crazy fuck now, when they will use weapons on what he considers now as RU land, he will allow himself (as previously said) to massively destroyed any places (even only full of civilians) for retaliation. includes massive bombing to come.
So his hopes

15/ 5/ as i understand it his exactly what he said, about the actual limits and then (as i explained months ago about north of the Ukraine Sumy etc) is to create a "no man zone" of "life" about 10 to 20km along all this new frontier, and he'll be "happy"
& that's the mofo's plan.

16/ Now Russian with enough ressources (i just hear that) are literally (i told it 2 weeks ago, it was already kind of "expected" in "superior cast") & then i reported it to you) rushing out of Russia by any means.. flying ticket r not available no more to normal destination, &

17/ the price is 5 times as usual, they are trying to go to every country they can right now to move out of the country.
that's something huge. a large part of Ru economy will literally collapse by the end of the year. all high tech jobs wants to move out.
we are certainly going

18/ to witness new alliances with China also about that as they do have ressources & people on these area of expertises, & will gladly put Ru a bit more into their "soft fist".
but it will not go "smoothly" anyway.. Ru are going to gain fear, real one now.

19/ here the recap of this morning discourse if you want.
by @DAlperovitch

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1572465816741847045

20/ and my entire thread yesterday as a reminder :

https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1572195784740970498

21/ about few questions from friends now.
as explained it's trained reservists & ex mil, so 250k (maybe 50k to 80k to be send in front line then), so stop saying "hey but the time they need to train them" etc etc this is false & dumb (one more i read so much that from pseudo

22/ "specialists" account here & there it burns my brain.
they have a Tsunami of soldiers to be send in couple weeks from now. & they will go, & reinforce their comrades (so it'll also rise the morale of existing troops by the way) & sure, that was my entire point with my Excel

23/ Tabs to show you that Ru materials (the best one) is being destroyed & they will have to fight like Orcs in the Mud.. true that, & they'll be killed advancing. true that. but it's another full 6/7 months of grinding war & destructions & darkness to come for beautiful Ukraine

24/ So it appears that #Shoigu #Choigu indicates that there will be a calendar and a gen plan to send "blocks" of soldiers, on diff schedule, depending their final destination/role, in the current process, so they won't (but we knew that) send all 100's thousands men at once.

25/ which was of course obvious, as we know how they suck now at dealing with these kind of matters.
but nonetheless they ARE sending them..
like poison, for months to come, & in order to accomplish his own self "prophecy" of #Donbass conqueror.

26/ yes as said for other occasions (Kherson threads month ago) there is going to be huge problems with diff military logistics bottleneck & poor equipment & so on & so forth.. still, they r coming, they will take position, they will fortify it, dug deep & play WWI style defense

27/ if necessary. & as we have seen (reverse : again Ukr) it takes a whole lots of ammo & men to take fortified defenses (Did we planned to send enough arty for the next year, because tubes are wearing out fast now!)
so i read some comments & some people are in the first famous

28/ stage of "denial", you got to see it as real.
They. are. massively. coming! (sounds like bad porn i know :)
but seriously, even if they are "just" holding their lines, & from now on, acting like it's Russia mother land, it CHANGES everything!
so wake the F up! and stop

29/ tagging me in conversation to tell me "to chill or relax". YOU need to face the NEW reality!
Putin just draw a new line - point.

ok, now, back to life, and let's back to work!