Thread by @JBelcourt73

So the long awaited "Russian Mobilization" has arrived. No, its not partial, that is poppycock. Its phased which is what I predicted. So lets dig into what it means shall we? There are 3 big take aways and then a bunch of ancillaries.

First, and the most beneficial to the Russian Army is the stop loss effect. Kontracti can no longer quit, contracts no longer expire and thousands of refuseniks now face prison if they do not submit. From a manpower perspective this is the peach, but there is a poison pit in the

center. This will not be good for morale. Telling a soldier he can't leave when he already wants to, when morale is at a low ebb and battlefield success seems impossible and that his fate by remaining is to join his comrades on sunflower duty is going to wreck cohesion. Putin's

timing is wrong AGAIN. Had he been able to maintain some semblance of military effectiveness until the campaign season ended the stop loss still would have sucked but the general ebb of the fighting may have allowed some retraining, resupplying and remotivating during the quiet

season. Now the soldiers will be going into winter with no hope of mental recovery. They just got sentenced to death in the spring. Second, the initial call up of 300K reserves. This is 1/3rd to 1/2 of Russia's best quality reserve troops (not saying much). These

will be the specialist and more recently serving types who are still mostly young and thus in better physical shape. Now there are two smart money moves: 1. is that they will be sent to training areas to be turned back into soldiers and forged into a spring offensive force.

2. They will be mostly trained and then sent to the front to replace kontracti to give them some rest and the reservist some OJT and blooding. Russia however does not have a lot of smart money. Depending on how many show up willingly and how long it takes to round up the rest I

think they will only get the equivalent of blurry power point training viewed through the lense of a welding goggle before being sent to the front and that once there they will not relieve kontracti. The two will mix, both bitter for different reasons and over the winter may well

become a toxic stew of frozen, wet discontent. Longer term the third bigger impact is Russia will be setting up the pipeline and infrastructure for successive waves of call ups. Though each wave will net men who have been out longer, gotten older and are less able to handle the

rigors of life in the Russian army both the physically demanding nature of combat and the mentally demanding requirements to put up with idiot power tripping children with no (presumed) life experience telling grown ass men what to do. Also as the call ups reach deeper

and reach higher up the age scale the more families are going to be impacted. Russian pay problems right now do not permit a mass call up without ruining family incomes and condemning children to starvation. That would ruin Putin's support with the babushkas so that pipeline has

to be built over time. Until it is built, every Russian male who can afford to is going to leave Russia as fast as they can, buy medical deferments and otherwise engage in all sorts of social corruption to avoid call up. This is going to be a poormans war and the troops will

notice. Then there is the 4-5th issues? With what are they going to be equipped with and who will train them? Russia has burned up and had destroyed vast stocks of ammunition. Most of her modern kit is already used up, her cadres have already been tapped as replacements for the

losses already suffered. The Russian economy and industrial capability is not going to be able to meet the requirements of supplying hundreds of thousands of new men. Russia has likely been raiding her mobilization BTG's for kit for some time, both as combat loss replacements and

to create the 3rd Army Corps. This will leave very little except depot refurbished stuff. Yes, Russia has thousands of tanks and AFV's in storage, but without access to tech they cannot be modernized so each wave of them is marching backwards down the technological scale. Putin

knows this which brings up the sixth point. More nuclear scares.... You get a nuke, I get a nuke, they get a nuke everyone gets a nuke if you dare contest the sham referenda. The rushed faux votes and nuclear saber rattling is an attempt to rewrite the rules of the game. He is

hoping that by declaring the occupied areas "Russia" western leaders will back off and force Ukraine into a frozen conflict. He knows the army he has and the army he will be getting are both unable to secure victory, he wants out but is trapped in the sunken costs fallacy. He has

pinned his political future on victory in Ukraine. It is up to us to make sure he loses that bet. Write your leaders and let them know you want support for Ukraine to continue. I tag @JohnBoozman, @SenTomCotton and @RepFrenchHill everyday. Continue to support units like the

@georgian_legion and combat Russian dis-info. #NAFO is going to have its hands full bonking vatniks who will see the word mobilization but won't have the intellectual capacity to do a deep dive on what the word means. Continue to give to worthwhile charities. @MriyaAid is now

very close to completing their latest drone drive. can you help get them over the finish line? Stay informed via trusted voices and spaces like @MriyaReport. Promote Ukraine and Ukrainian voices into the other parts of your life to help keep support up. Play your part don't lose

faith, Ukraine is winning. Until Ukraine wins on Ukraine's terms: Slava Ukraini! #genocideofUkrainians #mobalization #RussiaTerroristState @mfa_russia <--- still losing and no amount of drunk Russian reservists can save you.

@threadreaderapp unroll please