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Sep 25 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
#EU_Gas: Germany is set to negotiate long-term contracts with the UAE & Qatar on the supply of hydrogen and LNG. The “energy diplomacy” in action. Chancellor Scholz is traveling to the Middle East, accompanied by the big German companies, including the utilities Uniper & RWE.⤵️
The main question is the price and timing of delivery: signing long-term contracts now does not mean that the gas will flow the next day. Qatar can export from 2025. This could mean that the contract signed now will reflect the reality of the market in 2025,⤵️
when the price of gas should stabilize. Germany’s Scholz in Saudi Arabia as Gas Crunch Bites Economy bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Scholz has agreed to buy small volumes of LNG from UAE this year and in 2023, but it is producing too little and cannot replace Russian gas unless it invests massively in future production. Perhaps Scholz is more interested in building a strategic energy dialogue with UAE.
ft.com/content/0065df…

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More from @DionisCenusa

Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Sep 27
#EU_Gas: The suspicion that NS1 was deliberately targeted to cause leaks and require repairs is becoming more convincing. Two scenarios: 1) Russia is rendering NS1 useless from a technical point of view to eliminate political criticism that Russia is waging gas warfare. This⤵️
plays an important role in Russia's ongoing "gas diplomacy" that seeks to redirect or diversify gas supplies to Asia outside the EU; 2) If Russia is behind these incidents and NS1 cannot be used at the moment, then Putin wants to advocate other routes👇
(NS2 - that has been cancelled by Germany & run technical issues as well) or cause an impact on the gas market which has now stabilized at ~1700 Euros per 1000/m3 (TTF, ~ 188MWh). Russia seeks to the money from gas but even more it wants to cause the "energy winter" in Europe.
Read 8 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Sep 27
#Georgia_Russia: The country is receiving more and more fleeing Russian men (who are refugees). So far, more than 100,000 Russians have entered Georgia, many of whom may be former tourists. The Georgian authorities did not introduce any restrictions, no visa is required.⤵️
Only Russians with a certain economic status have a passport to leave Russia. So the Russian men who chose Georgia as a refuge are well educated, but not rich enough and not directly affected by Western sanctions to leave Russia during the previous waves in 2022.⤵️
Georgia is facing great pressure. For comparison: Moldova (2.6 million population) hosts some 80,000 Ukrainian refugees who fled Russian aggression, while Georgia is currently hosting more than 100,000 Russian men (3.7 million inhabitants + thousands of Russians from the⤵️
Read 14 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Sep 27
#Moldova_Russia: I decided to re-up this thread to explain the gas-related animosities between Moldova and Russia. The highlights are as follows: 1) Moldova signed a contract with Russia in 2021 and continues to consider it advantageous due to the pricing formula;⤵️
2) The volatility of the EU market (manipulated with the Russian contribution) makes gas prices for Moldova unaffordable; 3) Russia will be able to stop the flow of gas due to breach of contract by Moldova (audit and unsolved and controversial old debts); 4) Govt of Moldova⤵️
(PAS-Sandu tandem) is aware that it does not fulfill the contract as agreed but a kind of blackmail to Russia with the separatist region (Transnistria receives gas based on the contract signed by the constitutional authorities);⤵️
Read 4 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Sep 26
#Moldova_Russia: The govt fears that Russia may recruit Moldovans with Russian citizenship to fight in Ukraine under partial mobilization. To counteract the motivation to join the Russian military, the government is also examining the possibility of stripping Moldovan⤵️
citizenship from dual citizens of Moldova and Russia. Discussions are taking place through diplomatic channels to discourage the recruitment of Moldovans (the political contacts are frozen). However, this might have very little success; Russia has restricted all legislation⤵️
related to mobilization, including the citizenship law. That leaves Moldovan citizens with a choice between fighting as Russian soldiers or fleeing back to Moldova via third countries (there are no flights to Moldova after authorities recently banned resuming flights).
Read 6 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Sep 26
#EU_Russia: The right-wing coalition may take power in Italy after yesterday’s snap elections, under the leadership of the charismatic Giorgi Miloni (Fratelli d'Italia). This coalition includes Berlusconi and Salvini who have come out in favor of Putin (at least before⤵️
the Russian aggression against Ukraine broke out). This could create problems in the EU in the face of new sanctions on Russia or simply generate tensions in the bilateral dialogue between Rome and Brussels. The next elections to watch out for are in Bulgaria in early October.⤵️
Sofia was already showing interest in restoring gas supplies from Russia after the political crisis occurred in July this year. This could allow Hungary's Orban to more easily resist Brussels and oppose an even tougher stance on Russia.⤵️
Read 6 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Sep 25
#Russia_mobilization: The price of flights from Sochi to Armenia costs between 2,500 and 5,000 euros per ticket. The Russians paid up to 10,000 euros per ticket to leave on September 25. The borders are gradually closing for legal crossing (the last day is September 28).⤵️ Image
After that, the fleeing Russians will likely try to escape by slipping through cracks in the Russian borders in Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and the borders with Finland, (too cold for crossing Norway), and the Baltic states.
So far, around 216,000 Russian men managed to flee the country after the partial mobilization was launched. They have withdrawn from their bank accounts and cards more than 2.3 billion euros (on average 8,800 euros per Russian who fled or intend to do so).
Read 6 tweets

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