#Russia_mobilization: Russian men eligible for partial mobilization have 3 options: 1) enroll; 2) protest and go to jail (where they can be forcibly recruited) or 3) flee (this is a way of deserting the army). There, Western decision-makers & the think tank are split in two:⤵️
one part rejects any support for the fleeing Russian men, and the other takes the approach of openness. An important nuance is that the geographical and historical proximity of the countries to Russia makes them more reluctant to embrace the Russian anti-mobilization men.⤵️
My personal point of view is explained through 5 lenses: 1) Objective perception of political-military reality: Russians fleeing are motivated by survival, but that also means that they objectively assess developments on the battlefield, which which seems negative for Russian⤵️
aggression. The fleeing group includes many voices of silent anti-regime voters who read alternative sources of information; 2) Financial aspect: This category of Russians is not rich enough to move to Turkey or the UAE, but they still have some means to go to Georgia,⤵️
Armenia or Mongolia. 3) Democracy versus autocracy preferences: It is worth noting that they prefer Georgia and Armenia (facing military pressure from a neighbor) or Mongolia, not autocratic Azerbaijan or Uzbekistan (where Russians can travel visa-free and there is land⤵️
connection). They will have to integrate into the local labor market (Russian gasterbeiters), especially if the war continues. Depending on how long they stay or how long the host countries allow them to stay, they will experience a more democratic way of life, which they⤵️
would eventually export to Russia; 4) Economic-education nexus: If those with less economic means leave, Putin can enroll the poorest categories, which in many cases are less educated. This directly influences the ability of new recruiters to learn and become⤵️
efficient soldiers; 5) Finally, fleeing Russian men are putting great pressure on neighboring countries (the threat of a "refugee crisis" - the fleeing qualifies as politically motivated refugees). Conclusion: EU states could help relieve pressure on other countries where⤵️
the EU has a strong geopolitical agenda (Georgia, Armenia). Offering humanitarian visas and asylum can contribute to undermining the professionalism of Russian forces fighting in Ukraine (explained above: nexus between economy and education). Last but not least,⤵️
the EU should see this group as a future category of anti-Putin voters. However, strict filtering must be applied. Without a calibration approach, Russian spies could also try to enter the EU (future organizers of subversive actions). A calibrated approach requires⤵️
administrative resources, but the opposite is to let Putin recruit them and fight Ukraine, which the West also spends money to support. It would also not exclude that the non-acceptance policy could lead to illegal border crossings with EU states in the vicinity of Russia.⤵️
More nuances about the mobilization you can read in this long THREAD👇
https://twitter.com/dioniscenusa/status/1572601106018226176
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