Thread by @ZeroZhvk

🧵Talking about russian actions it's an error to try to analyze what putin might be thinking, to find some plan behind his actions. Instead we should look at the TRENDS. But b4 that TL;DR: russian nuclear strikes against 🇺🇦 are a very real threat, require an action to prevent->

In last 8 years we could see 'experts' making the most ridiculous mistakes when trying to predict russia's actions from the standpoint of "what is benefitial for russia", "what is benefitial for putin", this, ofc, comes from the total lack of understanding of the subject->

Indeed, if russia was US it would be NOT BENEFITIAL to invade Ukraine. Surely the # of casualties suffered by russia even in the 1st weeks of invasion would make US retreat. But 🇷🇺isn't US. That's a fact that needs to be taken into account when, well, talking about russia :D->

Regarding invasion, let's rewind 8 years back and see what russia was doing: they invaded & occupied Crimea, then 'hybrid' invaded and occupied parts of Donbas, unlike Crimea, however, they never needed Donbas or its ppl per se, they used it to cover up the annexation of Crimea->

russians tried to impose their interpretation of Minsk agreements to incorporate their puppets from "ldpr" into Ukrainian govt system and use Medvedchuk and his minions to regain control over Ukraine w/ blackmail and constant threats of invasion, so-called russian 'soft force' ->

They spent 8 years attempting to achieve that, not forgetting, ofc, in the process to loot Donbas as they pleased, build concentration camps there, kidnap, torture, murder both ppl and their own criminal regime enforcers in Donbas (culling their own puppets)->

All those 8 years of efforts to use Donbas and Minsk agreements to gain control over Ukraine and legitimize the occupation of Crimea went straight into the trashbin with the full-scale invasion of 2022, which, however was launched w/o declaration of war, as 'special operation'->

W/ invasion itself putin spent 7 months performing COVERT mobilization & insisting on calling it "special operation", persecuting anyone who called it "war"... only to throw all of that away, declare OVERT full-scale mobilization and prepare to declare war 7 months into the war->

Indeed a reasonable person would find putin's actions on different steps pretty contradictory, illogical - there's nothing beneficial about putin's actions as well, a 3d party observer would find them pretty insane (like Macron did recently, if I'm not mistaken, right?)->

But, as noted before - it's futile to try to think of this invasion in terms of putin's plans. Instead we should look at this as war of russian imperialism, consider russia itself as a whole and look at the trends, not trying to find some cunning plans of putin's behind them->

Let's look at russian crimes since collapse of USSR (not listing all of them): 1992-Transnistria,Georgia, 1995-Chechnya, 1999-Chechnya, 2000s-"gas wars" against Ukraine, 2008 - Georgia, 2013-attempt to instill Yanukovich prorussian dictatorship in Ukraine, 2014- Crimea, Donbas->

2015-Syria (following years - Lybia, deeper into Africa, using Syrian bases as logistics hub), 2020-Belarus, 2021-hybrid war againts Poland, February 2022-full scale invasion but "special military operation", September 2022-full scale mobilization. Always escalating aggression->

I'll once again repeat myself - attempts to find logic behind contradictory putin's actions on different steps is futile (though Kremlin's flying monkeys in the West surely show feats of perverted logic trying to), but if we 'zoom out' & look at russia - the trend is obvious:

russia ALWAYS consistently spreads &* escalates aggression. While "experts" try to guess logic process happening in putin's head the objective circumstances of russian imperialism are beyond his control, we can safely say it's not putin who wages the war, but russia iteslf->

Ukraine is a primary target because of russian state creation mythology that claims descent from Kyiv Rus, which makes russians believe that Ukrainians are not ppl, but that's just a matter of chance, the issue of russian also has somewhat objective reasons->

The root of this evil is russian imperialist identity, simply put there is no russia which is not an empire, idea of decolonization is unthinkable to a russian simply because, to themselves, there is no 'russia proper' which is not the empire, they cannot understand what's that->

Such imperialist identity causes chauvinism, itself an extreme form of narcissism. It's due to this chauvinism russians always end up building a totalitarian system (even after 1991, "russian democracy" LOL) with some tsarist figure in charge, end up with fascism->

The fascist system, on the other hand, fails to build a self-sufficient viable state, and thus ends up finding itself in situation when it needs to rob neighbors simply to not tear itself apart. Thus russian imperialism, russia itself is a stable system of hate->

russian chauvinists bring tsar-like figures to power, tsar-like dictators fail to build a normal state and require robbing others, looting neighbors, draining colonies to continue its existence, here's where the trend for spreading and escalation of aggression comes from->

And, in principle, in terms of russian aggression, it's not even important if they defeat us or get bogged down in a stagmire - they will escalate aggression and attack further - Kazakhstan, hybrid-attack #EU, directly attack Baltic states, Poland (yes will go against NATO)->

Simply because russian aggression is russia's own fault, they're trying to solve their internal issues by robbing others, but these issues cannot be solved in such ways so russia will always attack further and further->

Remember how "experts" believed that putin will not attack because it's not beneficial to him? By same 'rational' logic ppl believe that it would be insane to attack NATO. Yet, since we already are familiar with russia - it's clear that 🇷🇺will, in fact, eventually attack NATO->

But let's return to the recent events - February 2022 - full-scale invasion against Ukraine (but 'special operation'), September 2022 - full-scale mobilization, preparations to declare war. Russia always escalates, what do you think will be the next step of russian escalation?->

As we've just shown the arguments in favor of dismissing russian nuclear strikes against Ukraine ("not beneficial" etc) fail before the objective trend of russian imperialism - spreading and escalating aggression->

With mobilization and war declaration (at least de-facto, thru sham referenda) steps passed, nuclear escalation seems (in fact logical, in terms of russian trend for escalation) next step. In fact it very well may be near inevitable at this point. World must act to prevent it->

The (apparently deliberately) vague and weak messages by the US regarding the unnamed "consequential" retaliation for the use of WMDs, nukes against Ukraine only encourage russian narcissistic psychology->

Even if putin believes he bluffs about nukes today, tomorrow he will think that it's a good idea to nuke Ukraine, that it's just the final push it takes to turn his defeat into victory (remember Hitler's belief in wunderwaffe when the war was already lost? Same way of thinking)->

Only Hitler didn't yet possess nukes & russia does. And they will eventually escalate and use them. Against us, then against the world too. Action must be taken to DISARM russia BEFORE it happens. At least russians must be made to understand the fatal consequences of nuking us->

With escalation to full-scale mobilization and war declaration, I can't help to see nuclear strikes against us as near inevitable. We must live with understanding that millions more can be killed any moment just as russians murdered thousands in Mariupol