Thread by @WarintheFuture

In her book, "Tell Me How this Ends", American scholar @RobinsonL100 posed a fundamental question about the 2003 Iraq War, and indeed all wars. What are the victory conditions to conclude a war & what are the necessary actions in its immediate aftermath? 1/19

2/ While there is little prospect of the Russo-Ukraine war being over this year, it may now be time to ask such questions about this conflict. And the most important question, because this outcome looks very likely, what happens when Ukraine wins?
abc.net.au/news/2022-09-2…

3/ This is not an unusual question to ask while a war is still raging. Clever national leaders & strategists in conflicts including the 20th century Word Wars have begun thinking about, and planning for, post-war conditions and arrangements well before the last battle is fought.

4/ I would note, this is not Ukraine's theory of victory. Instead, it might be described as Ukraine's 'theory of post-war security and prosperity'.

5/ The groundwork for understanding and resolving issues related to post-war Ukraine can and should be laid now, even as combat operations continue. Planning beyond war termination provides additional purpose for those who must fight.

6/ It also provides a light at the end of the tunnel for Ukrainian civilians and displaced persons. And importantly, having a view to the post-war world can help shape Ukrainian and western strategy for the war over the next year or so.

7/ There are many major issues for resolution. Just some of the most important issues include security guarantees, reconstruction and building a standardized military. This is not an exclusive list.

8/ But these issues serve to highlight the larger requirement for wide-ranging but integrated post-war planning to begin soon. This is a task for Ukraine, but the west must support it.

9/ In the wake of this war, Ukraine will require a security framework to protect it from future Russian aggression. The United States and NATO will probably have to continue to provide security assistance to Ukraine in the coming years and decades.

10/ Whether this involves @NATO membership or not, #Ukraine will require security assurances. Quiet discussions about this matter are probably already occurring, but they will need to be part of any enduring settlement for the war.

11/ Reconstruction is a 2nd major issue. The magnitude of rebuilding Ukrainian infrastructure is beyond the capacity of Ukraine alone. The World Bank & European Commission have estimated that reconstruction in Ukraine will cost at least US$349 billion. worldbank.org/en/news/press-…

12/ It will be a task whose scale has not been seen thus far this century. And it will be an undertaking that must be transparent and fully accountable for the Ukrainian people and the international community.

13/ A 3rd issue for resolution will be the reconstruction of the Ukrainian military. During the war, they have begun a transition to NATO standards for logistics. They have also been armed with a hodgepodge of western arms.

14/ This might work for a short time in the short term, but it is unsustainable in the longer term. Effective military institutions require standardized equipment and training for simplicity, supportability and cost effectiveness.

15/ The Ukrainian military will have to be rearmed after this war with a #NATO standard, and affordable, Army and Air Force. US Foreign Military Financing to provide grants and loans to purchase US military equipment will be part of the solutions, as will NATO countries.

16/ This is just a small selection of the many tasks that will face the Ukrainian government in the wake of this war.

17/ Other issues, such as trade & foreign investment, dealing with the psychological effects of the war, unexploded ordinance & remnants of war, Russian minorities, war crimes, & reintegration of military veterans into society, will be a major challenge for Ukraine's leaders.

18/ And while the focus now must be on winning this war, the magnitude of likely post-war tasks means that some planning for them will need to begin now. There is no time to lose. End. abc.net.au/news/2022-09-2…

19/ Thank you to the following whose images were used in this post: @DefenceU @abcnews @IAPonomarenko