Tweet

https://twitter.com/dioniscenusa/status/1569646390074114049

More from @DionisCenusa

Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Sep 27

#EU_Gas: The suspicion that NS1 was deliberately targeted to cause leaks and require repairs is becoming more convincing. Two scenarios: 1) Russia is rendering NS1 useless from a technical point of view to eliminate political criticism that Russia is waging gas warfare. This⤵️

plays an important role in Russia's ongoing "gas diplomacy" that seeks to redirect or diversify gas supplies to Asia outside the EU; 2) If Russia is behind these incidents and NS1 cannot be used at the moment, then Putin wants to advocate other routes👇

(NS2 - that has been cancelled by Germany & run technical issues as well) or cause an impact on the gas market which has now stabilized at ~1700 Euros per 1000/m3 (TTF, ~ 188MWh). Russia seeks to the money from gas but even more it wants to cause the "energy winter" in Europe.

Read 8 tweets

Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Sep 27

#Georgia_Russia: The country is receiving more and more fleeing Russian men (who are refugees). So far, more than 100,000 Russians have entered Georgia, many of whom may be former tourists. The Georgian authorities did not introduce any restrictions, no visa is required.⤵️

Only Russians with a certain economic status have a passport to leave Russia. So the Russian men who chose Georgia as a refuge are well educated, but not rich enough and not directly affected by Western sanctions to leave Russia during the previous waves in 2022.⤵️

Georgia is facing great pressure. For comparison: Moldova (2.6 million population) hosts some 80,000 Ukrainian refugees who fled Russian aggression, while Georgia is currently hosting more than 100,000 Russian men (3.7 million inhabitants + thousands of Russians from the⤵️

Read 14 tweets

Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Sep 26

#Moldova_Russia: The govt fears that Russia may recruit Moldovans with Russian citizenship to fight in Ukraine under partial mobilization. To counteract the motivation to join the Russian military, the government is also examining the possibility of stripping Moldovan⤵️

citizenship from dual citizens of Moldova and Russia. Discussions are taking place through diplomatic channels to discourage the recruitment of Moldovans (the political contacts are frozen). However, this might have very little success; Russia has restricted all legislation⤵️

related to mobilization, including the citizenship law. That leaves Moldovan citizens with a choice between fighting as Russian soldiers or fleeing back to Moldova via third countries (there are no flights to Moldova after authorities recently banned resuming flights).

Read 6 tweets

Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Sep 26

#EU_Russia: The right-wing coalition may take power in Italy after yesterday’s snap elections, under the leadership of the charismatic Giorgi Miloni (Fratelli d'Italia). This coalition includes Berlusconi and Salvini who have come out in favor of Putin (at least before⤵️

the Russian aggression against Ukraine broke out). This could create problems in the EU in the face of new sanctions on Russia or simply generate tensions in the bilateral dialogue between Rome and Brussels. The next elections to watch out for are in Bulgaria in early October.⤵️

Sofia was already showing interest in restoring gas supplies from Russia after the political crisis occurred in July this year. This could allow Hungary's Orban to more easily resist Brussels and oppose an even tougher stance on Russia.⤵️

Read 6 tweets

Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Sep 25

#Russia_mobilization: The price of flights from Sochi to Armenia costs between 2,500 and 5,000 euros per ticket. The Russians paid up to 10,000 euros per ticket to leave on September 25. The borders are gradually closing for legal crossing (the last day is September 28).⤵️

After that, the fleeing Russians will likely try to escape by slipping through cracks in the Russian borders in Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and the borders with Finland, (too cold for crossing Norway), and the Baltic states.

So far, around 216,000 Russian men managed to flee the country after the partial mobilization was launched. They have withdrawn from their bank accounts and cards more than 2.3 billion euros (on average 8,800 euros per Russian who fled or intend to do so).

Read 6 tweets

Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Sep 25

#Russia_mobilization: Some Russian economists argue that newly recruited Russian soldiers can survive at a rate of 35-50%. Drawing on this assumption, I outlined my working hypothesis explaining the factors behind the eventuality of low recruit survivability (THREAD):⤵️

1) I explain the survivability capacity of the new Russian soldiers recruited through the economic-educational nexus. 2) In short, if you are deciding to leave Russia (and you manage to achieve this goal despite all odds), this shows that you have a certain degree of income,⤵️

for which you need to be educated (there is no other way to find fast and efficient solutions to flee Russia). 3) Thus, those who leave are rather educated (and with means, which also includes life experience). 4) At the same time, relatively young recruits (who joined the⤵️

Read 5 tweets

Share this page!

Dionis Cenusa

People who liked this thread also liked...

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

More from @DionisCenusa

Dionis Cenusa

Dionis Cenusa

Dionis Cenusa

Dionis Cenusa

Dionis Cenusa

Dionis Cenusa

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Send Email!