#EU_Gas: The suspicion that NS1 was deliberately targeted to cause leaks and require repairs is becoming more convincing. Two scenarios: 1) Russia is rendering NS1 useless from a technical point of view to eliminate political criticism that Russia is waging gas warfare. This⤵️
plays an important role in Russia's ongoing "gas diplomacy" that seeks to redirect or diversify gas supplies to Asia outside the EU; 2) If Russia is behind these incidents and NS1 cannot be used at the moment, then Putin wants to advocate other routes👇
(NS2 - that has been cancelled by Germany & run technical issues as well) or cause an impact on the gas market which has now stabilized at ~1700 Euros per 1000/m3 (TTF, ~ 188MWh). Russia seeks to the money from gas but even more it wants to cause the "energy winter" in Europe.
The gas leak, which continues at NS1, will have environmental and security implications. My recommendation to the EU and member states is to urgently assess and review all critical infrastructure targets (starting with energy) that are linked to Russia in one way or another.⤵️
https://twitter.com/forsvaretdk/status/1574739041504870400
Subversive actions are very likely. Russian military officials and pro-Putin pundits have said that all means must be used against the West (which I assume can include the attacks on critical infrastructure elements). @DanishMFA @JosepBorrellF @eu_eeas @NATO
More details on the “incidents” linked to NS1 and NS2. These details support my two scenarios that are compatible. If Russia has done this, it damaged both pipelines, so the argument that Russia is involved in this will be discredited. Read my scenarios above☝️
https://twitter.com/afp/status/1574660938665693185
Finally a country that takes risk management and prevention measures aimed at energy critical infrastructure seriously. The more I follow the current crises and the EU handles them, the more I understand why Norway will not join it. 👇
https://twitter.com/javierblas/status/1574798147783622659
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