H I Sutton Profile picture
Sep 27, 2022 9 tweets 4 min read Read on X
*** NORD STREAM 2 incident ***

/Thread

I am getting a lot of questions re #Russian underwater sabotage capabilities due to the leak on the #NordStream2 pipeline off Denmark.

I do not have time to respond to media right now (sorry)

So just lay out some background reference. oil slick NordStream 2. Pho...
1. Circumstances
The leak is near the Danish island of Bornholm, at 54.8762°, 15.4099° in ~70 meters of water. This would be divable

2 things do make it suspicious:
a) It is just over 12 nautical miles from the Island in International waters
b) the EEZ here is disputed here (?) Image
2. History
In the past the USSR based spy submarines with special 'seabed engineering' capabilities in the Baltic. These are implicated in some of the famous 'Swedish incursions' of the late Cold War

See hisutton.com/Seliger.html

This force is no longer based in the Baltic Image
3. GUGI and the internet tapping subs
Today the Russian Navy has the largest fleet of spy submarines in the world. These are based in the arctic

They would be capable of damaging a pipe in the Baltic. However it seems improbable. Image
4. Belgorod
A Russian submarine you will hear a lot about is Belgorod. See hisutton.com/Spy%20Subs%20-…

This submarine is not to blame. Many reasons. Right now she is understood to be operating in the White Sea submarine
5. People will also point to Russian Spetsnaz divers based in Baltic. Not out of question, but much of the info out there is out of date.

The famous Piranha midget submarines are long since scrapped.

And the Trition-1M/2 are vintage and unlikely to be in service. Submarine cutawayImage
6. Russia does however have autonomous underwater vehicles.

A new center for their development is in St. Petersburg. Some of these might be suitable.

But they would need a host ship of some sort. Image
7. So, the relevant Russian capabilities are things like divers and underwater drones (AUVs). Not fancy nuclear submarines.

Hot take. Caveats apply.
Should make clear, I am not pointing at any culprit, merely responding to the types of questions i am getting with (hopefully) useful background info

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More from @CovertShores

Aug 8
Thread 🧵

**NAVY DECOY SHIPS AND DECEPTION**

Always an interesting topic, we all know about inflatable fake tanks, but it can happen with ships too.

Firstly, fake ships before D-Day:
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During WW2 the royal Navy converted some fleet tenders to resemble battleships and a carrier, with the idea being to deceive German Luftwaffe reconnaissance flights.
Before/ after (might be exact same ship, but you get the idea)
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The old battleship HMS Centurion was also remodeled to appear as the newer ship HMS
Anson

Before, after:
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Read 13 tweets
Jul 22
2 years ago this month in Russo-Ukraine war in Black Sea, JULY 2022

Short thread 🧵 from

Prelude: June 30 Russia withdraws from Snake Island. The island is strategically located near Ukrainian coast and shipping lanes

#OSINT hisutton.com/Timeline-2022-…

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Snake island had been subject to air strikes but Ukraine had also started using MLRS from barges at sea and it was in range of new 155mm artillery being delivered by West, especially the French Caesar system


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In July 2022, faced with threat of Ukraine’s Neptune anti-ship missiles, and western supplies Harpoons (notably Denmark), Russian navy largely withdraw from western side of northern Black Sea. This is a significant change in the balance.
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Read 8 tweets
Jun 28
Top 10 tanks thread🧵

According to my inexpert opinion

10. M60A2 'Starship', USA 🇺🇸
If you don't like this tank, you are going to hate this thread


M60A2 tank
M60A2 tank
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M60A1E2 tank
9.
VT 1-1 tank destroyer, West Germany 🇩🇪 Image
8.
Strv-74, Sweden 🇸🇪
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Read 12 tweets
Jun 15
I don't normally post about aircraft, but here are 5 awesome and usual loadouts from the Cold War which really interest me from a design perspective.

In descending order of awesomeness

5. A-5 Vigilante US Navy bomber with nuclear bomb up backside


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4. English Electric Lightning. Awesome fighter, could carry ferry tanks in the overwing position. Hard to find photos of this, but it could also carry twin SNEB rocket pods above each with, with fuel tanks behind them (!).
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3. Ilyushin Il-102, which lost out to the now-famous Su-25 FROGFOOT. Aside from rad lines and rear-facing aft cockpit, check out the tail gun!

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Read 9 tweets
Apr 21
**BREAKING**
Thread 🧵

#Ukrainian strike on #Russian Navy base at Sevastopol in Crimea appears to have damaged, possibly seriously (TBC), the submarine support ship Kommuna (ref ) hisutton.com/Russian-Navy-K…
Kommuna, ship cutaway
Video
Kommuna gets a degree of sympathy because she is an ancient and beautiful ship, 112 years old(!).

But objectively she is a legitimate target and provides Russian navy with valuable capabilities. She often participates in submarine trials and can conduct seabed warfare Image
Read 6 tweets
Apr 18
***UPDATE***

First images of Australia’s new 3D printed extra-large autonomous underwater vehicle (XLAUV), the Ghost Shark. 🧵 Image
This is the previous graphic shared by manufacturer Andruil, when the deal for 3 vehicles was announced. See hisutton.com/Australian-Nav…
Image
The design has a square cross-section which contrasts with the rounded form of the previous artworks. This maximizes volume for its given outer dimensions

Crucially, it can still likely fit inside a standard shipping container, an advantage over larger types like the Boeing Orca used by U.S. NavyImage
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Read 5 tweets

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