reminder #Nordstream 1. January 2006 explosions in southern #Russia hit gas pipe & elect tower, halt energy supplies 2 Georgia. 2. April 2009 explosion at Central Asia Tsentr4 pipe suspends gas exports from #Turkmenistan 2 Russia.
What did Moscow say-->1/1
1. pro-Chechen insurgents are behind the explosions. 2. #Turkmenistan 's aging pipeline system needs repair & reconstruction.
Explosions coincidently but timely served #Russia 's interests-->1/2
1. Russia's economic coercion against Georgia; response to demands 2 evacuate Russian bases. 2. #Gazprom struggles to absorb all gas volumes contracted in Central Asia; the gas from the region is too expensive.
Effects-->1/3
1. In 2007 Georgia switches to gas imports from Azerbaijan via Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum as Shah Deniz comes on stream. 2. #Turkmenistan agrees to expand gas pipeline and volumes of gas supplied to #China . 1/4
Russia's tried & tested economic warfare tactics in the South Caucasus & Central Asia are now deployed against the EU. It was a mistake to assume that what happens to neighbours won't happen to us. 1/5
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I spent last week in #Moldova, uncertainty and fragility are two key words which describe the current situation. Below are some insights based on conversations & observations during my stay. 1/19
Government installed last August run the country more in emergency (state of emergency in healthcare, energy sector & now cause of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine) than in normal mode. Emergency is the new normal & probably to stay here for some time. 2/19
Cascade of emergencies compelled gov to channel admin and financ res to deal with crises and minimize impact on citizens. In the process executive burned resources initially aimed for ec dev & modernz. There is hope that these could be replenished with donors’ assistance. 3/19
Last time #Transnistria made to the headlines was when Sheriff Tiraspol defeated Real Madrid. This time around it is not #championsleague which catapults Transnistria in, but geopolitics. Let me weigh in as the news about imminent escalation of the conflict multiply. 1/38
For years Russia used Transnistria as a multipurpose vehicle against Moldova. 1st, building image of more viable and prosperous entity than MD proper. In the past it was not rare to hear on the right bank talk abt cheap household heating & higher pensions in Transnistria. 2/38
Transnistria was also supposed to be an example - the closer one sticks to Russia, the better one lives. Over the last years, “Transnistrian model” lost the lustre. Chisinau report since 2017 increasing number of ppl from Transnistria applying for pension in Moldova proper. 3/38