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Sep 29 • 3 tweets • 2 min read
As much as people complain about social media i have to say it has allowed me to meet some amazing people like @hkuppy @PauloMacro and today both Paulo and I had the pleasure of meeting, for the first time, @kevinmuir who is one of the nicest guys you can ever meet.Only regret is
Due to conflicting schedules we couldn’t discuss macro, the upcoming #silversqueeze & my view on falling $aapl over some Pauillac but had to make do with a coffee. However one of the biggest discussions was how the sentiment effects of Twitter is still one of the greatest
Untapped money making tools ever.

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More from @contrarian8888

contrarian 8888 Profile picture
Oct 1
$AAPL seems the bulls arguing or praying for an emergency cut are going to be sorely disappointed. Couple this with the last bastion of safety- $AAPL breaking down and you can have a vicious circle. Julian Brigden yesterday argued for the stock to hit $97.50. Given i had Image
Argued for 90$ when i was buying the puts when the stock was at 175$ that seems highly reasonable. Will be an interesting week. Bottom line a lot of FANG are nothing but bond proxies and with rates rising, and with no growth, people are quickly finding that these”cant lose Image
Growth stocks” that many had used leverage and margin to fund their lifestyles (SLBS) are a toxic combination in a bear market. I remember 00-02 vividly and the last bastions of a bear market to fall are the generals. Couple this with a almost comical AI day by $TSLA and next
Read 4 tweets
contrarian 8888 Profile picture
Sep 30
$XLK. $AAPL Everyone is convinced the bearish sentiment is so high that we will get a bounce despite many things breaking and talks that the UK pension systems almost went Kaput. However, the following chart from CS shows Image
That the cost of selling a call to buy an out of the money put remains at extremely cheap levels. If people really were so so so bearish they would be selling calls even to buy deep out of the money puts given they would be convinced we would crash. As you can see downside Image
Complacency remains high and something that my friend @PauloMacro has been also harping on. Looking at tech valns and you can see that mega cap tech has a lot more downside and responses to my tweet that if 1/4 people are cutting $NFLX due to cost of living increases what would Image
Read 5 tweets
contrarian 8888 Profile picture
Sep 27
$PANR $PTHRF One of the original investors of Great Bear (the company that owns the Alaskan assets and merged into $PANR) called me yesterday excitedly post purchasing some $PANR in a very long time. Lets talk some maths they started with.
WH Ireland’s base case is 208p pre drilling. Lets say drilling is as expected (my talks w mgmt just this past weekend indicated extremely high confidence there should be no hiccups given we have drilled a 6ft section and got 106bbls flow already. Hence the 150bls/1000ft is very
Conservative. In that case at the minimum stock should go up 50% to 300p on say a base case of 60%. Lets take an extreme 30% chance we dont get a commercial flow =well we still have loads of other assets including Theta west etc so lets say -50%. And 10% flow rates are
Read 8 tweets
contrarian 8888 Profile picture
Sep 25
$PANR Great balanced view @Flight_Useful I should point out that the past 72 hours my DMs and WhatsApp have been pinged night and day from all this commotion on $PANR. Despite my track record on many large cap liquid names like $AR, $OXY $PDN $BTU etc etc Ive been called vile
Names like fruit loop of an investor. Let me be crystal clear. When i was investigating buying a large position in $PANR at 29p and i did so for a month whilst Farallon was selling in May 21 the advfn chat boards were equally -ve and @Scot126126 was the sole defender. Despite the
Stock vastly outperforming the indices and many energy names there remain naysayers. However the company has come a long way and there will be validation either +ve or -ve in a few short weeks. My history with $PANR predates its listing & I’ve known the mgmt team for over a
Read 12 tweets
contrarian 8888 Profile picture
Sep 21
$XLE #oil $panr. The market is being incredibly myopic worrying about recession fears and thinking oil will collapse even though a # of catalysts ive highlighted repeatedly will soon end. 1. SPR sales go from sales to purchases 2. Rig count in US and Non opec not really rising.
3 oil demand is still resilient despite China being in lockdown. I wont address the first 2 as they are relatively self explanatory (and many smarter folks have posted those charts). I want to address the fact that 0 covid is IMHO nothing more than a ruse for Xi to get re-elected
Without a ton of protests (chinese protests were really going up significantly in 2019 prior to covid). HK just announced today an end to all quarantines and now were hearing that Sing will see a big influx in Nov. So what happens to oil demand with chinese oil demand growing -
Read 5 tweets
contrarian 8888 Profile picture
Sep 21
I have never been so excited about an investment before. @KoningCorp in one weekend sold more units than ALL OF 2021. Yes that is right ALL of 2021 in 1 weekend. For those that invested in @joinrepublic congrats- I believe the co is raising money at a higher valn through
startengine.com/Koning So why the huge increase in sales? (A) new Koning Vera machine is a game changer -3D no breast compression and new selling model- (B) units are now sold as a scan as a service allowing much more access to breast clinics and centers and paying for each
Scan. Existing competition- Hologic/GE/Siemens have 2.5 D (they call it 3D but that is b/s) and with painful breast compression and with existing customer base cant really offer a scan as a service solution. Oppty is just MASSIVE. I am pumped on Uranium & coal and Silver etc but
Read 5 tweets

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