#Mutiny and clashes in #BurkinaFaso still underway. Are we seeing a #coup within a coup - if so who is behind it? Much is unclear, but the presidency announced earlier on social media it is negotiating with mutineers. How did we get here are what are they likely to talk about?🧵
2/ In recent weeks, discontent📈within the army. Some see #Damiba as having become more of a politician than the military leader they were hoping for & see him as having failed to deliver on his security promises. 26 Sept convoy attack in #Gaskindé sparked further📈in frustration
3/ As security forces suffer recurring losses, the dynamic could be similar to Nov 2021, when the high death toll of the Inata attack against sec forces and the news that they were ill-equipped and supplied sparked anger and discontent in the ranks
4/ Another major factor is the continued detention of #Zoungrana, who was arrested in Jan 2022 for plotting a coup, shortly before the #MPSR took power. Zoungrana has been gaining supporters within the army, who ask why keep him in prison for the same thing #Damiba did?
5 / They also point out what they say is Damiba's hypocrisy of claiming he pursues national reconciliation, notably inviting Blaise #Compaore back to #BurkinaFaso, while keeping #Zoungrana in prison. His release could be a key demand, as shown by protest slogans earlier today
6/ Other major point of contention: which int'l security partners should #BurkinaFaso work with? #Damiba is still leaning toward France, but others (incl. Simpore, dismissed earlier this month) want to diversify - Turkey, #Russia... - & Russian flags were flying at protest today
7/ After the presidency announced talks w/ mutineers, gunfire and detonations were again reported at Baba Sy camp & clashes in the Ouaga 2000 neighbourhood of #Ouagadougou between pro-Damiba and mutineers. Several ministers, incl. Yéro Boly now escorted to safety
8/ Acc. to several sources #Cobra unit (headed by #Damiba till late 2021) & some former Mamba Vert (#Zoungrana's unit) are those doing the leg work in #BurkinaFaso mutiny. Cobra because, after helping Damiba seize power in Jan 2022, they expected financial rewards and felt ...
9/ ... betrayed when he surrounded himself with new group of special forces largely drawn from former RSP. Mamba Vert because they want Zoungrana's release. Gendarmerie observing negotiations in #Ouagadougou but not involved. Moise Minoungou & other senior officers try to mediate
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