1. Does it feel like we're seeing far more filovirus outbreaks (#Ebola, #Marburg) in recent years? It does to me so I plotted outbreaks into a graph. No lab accident cases, or outbreaks with only lab animals, ie 1967 Marburg. Each outbreak is only counted on the year it started. 
2. Likewise, I didn't count spread to other countries as distinct outbreaks, like the #Ebola cases in Spain, the US & Nigeria, etc from the 2014 West African outbreak.
So it definitely feels like #Ebola & #Marburg outbreaks have been more frequent since the mid-1990s.
So it definitely feels like #Ebola & #Marburg outbreaks have been more frequent since the mid-1990s.
3. Some of that increase in frequency could be real. Climate change? Better detection of outbreaks. But some of it is probably due to the fact that #Ebola outbreaks beget more Ebola outbreaks. The more Ebola survivors there are, the higher the risk of survivor-ignited cases.
4. In recent years genome sequencing tells us that the 2021 outbreak in Guinea was triggered by a survivor of the 2014-16 outbreak. I don't think we know that for outbreaks from 15-20+ years ago.
What am I missing? Gotta be missing stuff.
(info source: CDC, WHO)
What am I missing? Gotta be missing stuff.
(info source: CDC, WHO)
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
