Thread: The #HurricaneIan death toll and how to reduce the next hurricane death toll (USA)

👉Currently 44 officially reported deaths in FL, and 4 in NC.

👉As always, it will increase, over about two weeks.

👉Many such deaths are preventable.

Source: fdle.state.fl.us/News/2022/Sept…
Here is the official page to check for updates on the Hurricane Ian death toll in Florida:

fdle.state.fl.us/news/news

I'm going to list some of the most common ways to die in a hurricane.

But first I'm going to talk about the political culture in FL that worsens the problem.
And by the way, every major issue like hurricane harm reduction is already political and politicized. I'm not politicizing a tragedy. I'm giving y'all the honest truth about how to save more lives next time. I consider it my civic and ethical duty.
I've been following weather related disasters in the Southern US and especially Florida since 2017.

Since January 2021 I've been doing that as a former supporter of the Republican party. I know the excuses that Cult 45 members use to ignore the issue for themselves and others.
Individual responsibility is a core principle in life and in communities. Often, people are unaware that thinking of the needs of others, esp. the most vulnerable, has a net benefit to oneself.

Underestimating a hurricane forecast is a widespread problem, across the board.
To reduce the hurricane death toll in future, more people need to *recognize* they and their home are at risk, then act accordingly, as early as possible.

The meteorological science that the NOAA uses in hurricane forecasting is the most accurate kind available at this time.
Y'all are blessed beyond belief to have this kind of disaster prediction intel at your fingertips 24/7.

In 2011, 185 people died in Christchurch, NZ (where I lived at the time) because earthquakes cannot be predicted. Really, they can't.

Hopefully one day... #ThankYouScience.
And so it really, really, sticks in my craw to watch anyone play down hurricane risk, leading to otherwise preventable death and destruction that impacts every person in the affected communities and beyond.

The severity of #Ian should not have been a surprise to SW Florida.
There were 4 days of warning time, which is ample. The change in direction over the final 24 hours before US landfall was not a surprise to me or to the many locals who have bothered to learn a bit about hurricane forecasting, especially in the Gulf of Mexico in September.
Gulf storms can intensify/change very quickly. There were evacuation ORDERS in almost all affected FL counties. FL LE agencies do not do that lightly. They know that some people stop trusting them if they are blessed with a less severe outcome.

And, you shouldn't need an order.
There should have been no one on Sanibel or Captiva Island on Wednesday morning.

I'm not talking about forcing people to leave. I'm talking about people taking responsibility for learning about the risk then acting accordingly.

"No man is an island," pardon the pun.
Every person who thinks they are smarter than NOAA hurricane forecasters and they can ride it out and they're not hurting anyone else, is delusional.

They are not existing in reality with the rest of us.

This is a deep psychological and societal problem in 2022.
The problem has many causes but one of the biggest (and one that is *possible* to address) is the anti-science anti-social mentality increasingly fed by right wing extremists since the 1960s.

Lots of good sources supporting my claim. One the best:

thebrainwashingofmydad.com
Not everyone who is willfully ignorant about basic, known hurricane risk, and burdens others with helping them afterwards, is a right winger, obviously. But I'm not talking about others in this thread. The scale of the harm caused by this right wing influencing is massive.
What MLK Jr called "rugged individualism for the poor" is the primary belief that leads people to deny both science and the "love thy neighbor" command in the Bible that many say they follow.

We have seen this in the pandemic. The stats don't lie.

We see it in hurricanes too.
Every preventable hurricane death is a tragedy, with ripple effects through time, around that person and their family.

But the non-fatal damage, destruction, and disruption affects the entire community. Whether we're talking about a town, city, or nation as a "community."
We who exist in reality are aghast at the cascade of severe threats and problems in the US and the world at the moment.

Those who aren't concerned, are choosing not to face reality. I literally have a FB friend who believes she'll be raptured up to heaven in the next few weeks.
I am choosing to ignore her insanity, for the sake of my own.

If you had to be helicoptered off of Sanibel Island in a rescue basket this week, then you have contributed to the burden and risk that others face. Needlessly.

It is selfish.
Especially at this time. Just selfish, and willfully ignorant.

"It's not hurting anybody else."

What a sad, pathetic, dishonest excuse.
And now for my unsolicited advice on how not to die in a hurricane:

✅When advised to evacuate, do it fully, early, with your pets, and after talking with everyone around you about the need to do so.

✅Do not return until officially all-clear.
✅Do all you can to remove or secure any items you own or control, such as vehicles, boats, outdoor furniture etc. This may save someone else's life.

✅View trees as the death machines that they are in a hurricane. Remove or trim them.

✅Don't be near a tree, eg in a car.
✅Get in enough food, water, and other supplies for 10 days' survival without power, gas, communications or responder visits. If you can't do this, then evacuate instead.

✅Get these in before the start of hurricane season. Once one is forecast, they sell out immediately.
✅Never go outside to try to secure anything etc during the storm. Nothing is worth risking your life for, even if you are trying to save someone's life.

✅Don't go out all in the first few days but especially don't get anywhere near downed power lines. They kill.
✅Use a generator safely or not at all. Carbon monoxide has no odor. You need a gas meter, at a minimum. Position the generator outside, at least 20 feet away from the house, downwind. And not upwind of other people, either.
✅Most hurricane related deaths nowadays are drownings. Stay out of the water at all times. On foot, 6" can kill you. In a vehicle, 12". Floodwater is unpredictable, filthy, and it conceals obstacles and sink holes.

✅There are many more ways to get a hurricane to kill you...
I say the same every time: Go to a credible source like ready.gov for info on preparing for and dealing with disasters of all kinds: natural or humanmade.

And, FEMA always has an info section about the disaster du jour:

fema.gov/disaster/hurri…
I don't think there is any excuse now for people who live in hurricane alley to brush off the threat of major hurricanes.

There is a lot that can be done at the political level to reduce hurricane harm to communities.

Stay safe, y'all.
Update: #HurricaneIan death toll in Florida is now 58.

Source: fdle.state.fl.us/News/2022/Octo…
Today's official Florida death toll from #HurricaneIan is 68.

The number is steadily increasing as bodies are found. It's heartbreaking, to know how easily these lives could have been saved.

fdle.state.fl.us/News/2022/Octo…

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More from @FreedomFriesInc

Sep 30
Thread: #HurricaneIan Day 2 in the US, my thoughts.

So I noticed a ton of damaged or destroyed boats either half-sunk at their moorings, or washed miles inland. As always happens. And it got me thinking... there are better options...

weather.com/storms/hurrica…
Boat owners and users had 4-5 days' notice that #Ian was likely to develop and landfall somewhere in FL. The forecast track became more certain over time, but even at 2 days out, the info was pretty solid. If it surprised you, then IMO you weren't listening properly to the data.
Not everyone would've had the option of doing this, but some did. It was possible to load up with lifesaving supplies and head out into the Caribbean to circle back behind the storm, boat intact, with the ability to assist many, many people in SW Florida.

J/s, it was possible.
Read 25 tweets
Sep 28
Poor kid. IDK when how or why she allowed this, then decided it would be fun to share.

Every person who is a public figure has a duty to promote science based public health and safety messaging at all times but esp. during major disasters.

T****s fail this test repeatedly.
Granted, weather conditions at time and place of filming were not hazardous enough to warrant actually calling Child Protective Services but that's not the point.

To a person, they are clueless on how to behave with a working moral compass. They lack an ability to feel shame.
So it's a waste of time acting as if shaming them will work.

Equally, never give them the benefit of the doubt.

They are a gang of narcissists and enablers.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 28
#HurricaneIan is a really bad one. #Katrina bad. #Andrew bad #Michael bad.

I've been away from Twitter for a couple weeks; back in #HWStormWatch mode now. My top tips below.

The very best website for #Ian info:

trackthetropics.com
Tips for surviving #HurricaneIan:

#TurnAroundDontDrown

You can drown in just 6" of flood water, if it's moving fast enough. The danger threshold for vehicles is 12".
Flood waters are extremely unhygienic & can hide obstacles & sinkholes. Don't walk in them.

Evacuate BEFORE the storm. If you don't, then stay put until it's gone.

Never go out during the short window of time when the eye of the storm passes. You don't know when it will end.
Read 11 tweets
Sep 10
They're not the Fab Four. That is their majesties & the Waleses.

One photo op =/= reunited, nor should it.

Even the late Queen did not & would not have wanted credit given to the Sussexes for this, after what they did to her & PP.

The real Fab Four are exceptional leaders.
Now, since it is never possible to provide proper nuance in one tweet, here is why I said all that.

I am a subject of the King of New Zealand, and I am extremely grateful for my good luck in being born here.

I'm also one of the most knowledgeable royal watchers I know...
My family and friends have been subjected to days of royal history minutiae, for which they are surprisingly grateful.

I've stayed off Twitter until now, because my hangout is US Twitter and I didn't feel up to battling with strangers about controversy when my heart is aching.
Read 25 tweets
Sep 1
Thread

There are so many self-incriminating words and actions each day among T#### and his current lawyers and hangers-on that it's hard to keep up!

I'm gonna add some examples here; and please reply with any that you see and we can include them too.

#LockHimUp
Christina Bobb in a TV slot referred to the classified cover sheets as cover letters.

A cover letter is what you submit with your resume for a job.

A cover sheet is the term well known by normal attorneys and civil servants the world over.

"They're not sending their best."
Now 45 is claiming that the DOJ's evidentiary photo suggests the documents were found in a messy state on the floor.

Jesus. Everyone, incl. the public, knows that when an LEO is assembling items of recovered evidence they display them, with markers, for the court.

So dumb.
Read 13 tweets
Aug 31
"The waiting is the hardest part
Every day you get one more yard"

The Espionage Act investigation into the former traitor-in-chief brings worse news for him and co each day now.

We are having to WAIT for justice, and even for basic national security.

We? Yes we. I'm a New Zealander and like people in every other country outside the US, I can see that these crimes led to a clear (and possibly imminent) threat to national security everywhere.

No one knows how much damage has already been done. We may never know.
This discussion on the day's events is pretty informative and accessible:



The four panelists are among the best of the best.
Read 12 tweets

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