Thread by @DanielBZhao

The job market is slowing modestly, but is still running at a healthy clip:

Sep's #JobsReport shows 263,000 job gains, tying the slowest rate of jobs growth since April 2021.

The unemployment rate fell back to 3.5 percent after a surprise jump in Aug.

#jobsreport 1/

Payroll employment grew by 263,000 in September, tying the slowest rate of growth since April 2021. However, that's still well above pre-pandemic levels when jobs growth was averaging <200,000/month.

#jobsreport 2/

Job gains were a little more mixed by industry this month. Service industries led job gains though some sectors saw job losses. Some notable smaller industries:

Physicians offices: +10.2k
Home health care: +10.6k
Hospitals: +27.5k

Truck transportation: -11.4k

#jobsreport 3/

Government job losses were primarily concentrated in state govt education (-7.1k) and local govt education (-21.7k), but this may be due to difficulty seasonally adjusting data at the start of the school yr given disrupted seasonal patterns during Covid

#jobsreport 4/

Education & health services are now above pre-pandemic employment levels as of Sept. The remaining shortfalls are primarily in leisure & hospitality and government (which includes state & local govt education).

#jobsreport 5/

Average hourly earnings growth fell to 5.0% year-over-year in Sept, the slowest since Dec 2021. That's a sign the Fed is looking for—that slowing labor market is moderating wage growth. Though ultimately they care about whether that's moderating inflation.

#jobsreport 6/

The unemployment rate fell back to 3.5 percent in Sep, after the surprise jump in Aug. The jump in Aug was in part driven by an encouraging rise in labor force participation, which unfortunately partially reversed in Sep.

#jobsreport 7/

Labor force participation fell slightly to 62.3 percent in Sep. And similarly, prime-age LFP fell to 82.7 percent, still below pre-pandemic levels. The comparison between the two does show how large an impact the aging population has.

#jobsreport 8/

The Black unemployment rate fell to 5.8 percent in Sep, tying the lowest level reached since the pandemic began and reversing several months of increases. This was also accompanied by a rise in Black labor force participation to 62.1 percent.

#jobsreport 9/

Employee absences due to illness fell in Sep as the wave of Covid cases over the summer receded.

These are measuring two slightly different things, but similar story in Census Household Pulse Survey data:

https://twitter.com/DanielBZhao/status/1577755980099616768?s=20&t=EoAyYAYLY6trrrpT6zUzXw

#jobsreport 10/