Daniel Zhao Profile picture
Oct 7 10 tweets 6 min read
The job market is slowing modestly, but is still running at a healthy clip:

Sep's #JobsReport shows 263,000 job gains, tying the slowest rate of jobs growth since April 2021.

The unemployment rate fell back to 3.5 percent after a surprise jump in Aug.

#jobsreport 1/
Payroll employment grew by 263,000 in September, tying the slowest rate of growth since April 2021. However, that's still well above pre-pandemic levels when jobs growth was averaging <200,000/month.

#jobsreport 2/
Job gains were a little more mixed by industry this month. Service industries led job gains though some sectors saw job losses. Some notable smaller industries:

Physicians offices: +10.2k
Home health care: +10.6k
Hospitals: +27.5k

Truck transportation: -11.4k

#jobsreport 3/
Government job losses were primarily concentrated in state govt education (-7.1k) and local govt education (-21.7k), but this may be due to difficulty seasonally adjusting data at the start of the school yr given disrupted seasonal patterns during Covid

#jobsreport 4/
Education & health services are now above pre-pandemic employment levels as of Sept. The remaining shortfalls are primarily in leisure & hospitality and government (which includes state & local govt education).

#jobsreport 5/
Average hourly earnings growth fell to 5.0% year-over-year in Sept, the slowest since Dec 2021. That's a sign the Fed is looking for—that slowing labor market is moderating wage growth. Though ultimately they care about whether that's moderating inflation.

#jobsreport 6/
The unemployment rate fell back to 3.5 percent in Sep, after the surprise jump in Aug. The jump in Aug was in part driven by an encouraging rise in labor force participation, which unfortunately partially reversed in Sep.

#jobsreport 7/
Labor force participation fell slightly to 62.3 percent in Sep. And similarly, prime-age LFP fell to 82.7 percent, still below pre-pandemic levels. The comparison between the two does show how large an impact the aging population has.

#jobsreport 8/
The Black unemployment rate fell to 5.8 percent in Sep, tying the lowest level reached since the pandemic began and reversing several months of increases. This was also accompanied by a rise in Black labor force participation to 62.1 percent.

#jobsreport 9/
Employee absences due to illness fell in Sep as the wave of Covid cases over the summer receded.

These are measuring two slightly different things, but similar story in Census Household Pulse Survey data:


#jobsreport 10/

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More from @DanielBZhao

Oct 4
Wow, U.S. job openings dropped sharply to 10.1 million in Aug. That's a steep drop from 11.2 million in Jul and the largest one-month drop since the pandemic began.

While the level is still high, that's a more definitive sign of cooling in one of the Fed's watched metrics.

1/ Image
The drop in job openings and jump in unemployment in Aug pushed the ratio of openings to unemployed workers to 1.67, down from 1.97 in Jul.

There are issues w/ this measure, but the Fed refers to it often, so the slowing here is notable.

#JOLTS 2/ Image
The drop in job openings was across the board, hitting most industries.

Note: this table shows that most industries are still seeing higher openings than pre-pandemic, but again, points to the broader economic slowdown making employers reevaluate hiring plans.

#JOLTS 3/ Image
Read 9 tweets
Sep 2
The job market is falling back to trend:
Aug's #JobsReport shows 315,000 job gains, slower & more consistent w/ softer spring gains, moderating after Jul's blockbuster report

The unemployment rate rose to 3.7 percent, but on the back of strong labor force gains.
Job gains fell back to trend in August, w/ 315,000 jobs added, more in line with the slower job gains from the spring.

July's blockbuster job gains seem like a positive fluke, though they largely held up to revisions, revised down only 2,000.

#jobsreport 2/ Image
Unfortunately, today's revisions pushed July's payroll employment below pre-pandemic levels, but no worries, instead we hit the milestone in August instead. As of August 2022, payroll employment is back to pre-pandemic levels.

#jobsreport 3/ Image
Read 14 tweets
Jul 8
June's #JobsReport shows the job market holding steady despite recession fears. Job gains slowed modestly to 372,000, beating expectations, and unemployment held flat at 3.6% for the 4th month in a row.

This is still a hot labor market even if the broader economy is cooling.

1/
Job gains cooled only modestly in June, beating expectations. Job gains overall seem to have shifted into a lower gear in the last few months, but recall that in 2019's hot job market, monthly job gains averaged 164k. This is still a healthy clip.

#jobsreport 2/
Most industries added jobs in June in broad-based gains across the board. A few industry stories:
1. Despite concerns about rotation from goods to services, job gains returned in #retail (+15.4k) and held strong in leisure & hospitality (+67k)

#jobsreport 3/
Read 12 tweets
Jul 6
U.S. job openings dropped to 11.3 million in May, showing signs of cooling even though demand still remains well above pre-recession levels. Even if the job market is cooling from white hot to red hot, it's still hot.

#JOLTS 1/ Image
The drop in job openings was primarily driven by professional & business services (-325,000) and #manufacturing (-208,000). Prof & biz services openings dropped 14% MoM as hiring freezes crimped demand & pushed it back to late-2021 levels.

#JOLTS 2/ Image
Manufacturing job openings dropped by 208,000 or 20% MoM in May, though labor demand in manufacturing has been more volatile, so May is still roughly consistent with levels we've seen for much of 2021–2022.

#JOLTS 3/ Image
Read 9 tweets
Feb 4
Today's January #JobsReport is significantly stronger than expected. Job gains totaled 467,000 even as Omicron drove record high COVID cases. Unemployment ticked up to 4.0%

Huge payroll revisions too: Dec up to 510,000 from 199,000. Nov up to 647,000 from 249,000.

1/
Charts will be slow this morning, but 2 more things:
-Labor force participation ticks up to 62.2%
-Weekly hours were down 0.2 hrs, employee absence due to illness up to 3.6 million, a new record high; showing Omicron had impact even if it reverse slow jobs growth

#JobsReport 2/
Slipping in a few charts while I can: we added 467,000 jobs in January. In hindsight, the end of year slowdown no longer looks as dramatic. Despite Omicron now *and* Delta in the late fall, jobs growth stayed surprisingly strong.

#JobsReport 3/
Read 19 tweets
Feb 1
Job openings rose to 10.9 million in Dec, again approaching record highs despite the surging Omicron wave.

Even though Omicron is pushing COVID to record levels, employers are hoping that the wave will be temporary & are keeping jobs open for when the wave recedes.

#JOLTS 1/
The increase in job openings in Dec was concentrated in accommodation & food services, despite the impact of Omicron. Job openings in the sector are lower than the summer peak of 1.67 million, but still up significantly over the pre-pandemic record of 1.02 million.

#JOLTS 2/
Quits fell slightly, but still, 4.3 million Americans quit their jobs in December—down only modestly from last month's record highs.

#JOLTS 3/
Read 6 tweets

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