The Bull Run is over. DeFi Summer a distant memory. And the NFT Bubble - popped 📉

Markets are down bad & Degens no longer have a #Crypto casino to play in.

Or so it seems..

With the American Football Season, & 2022 Fifa World Cup, traders may have a way to make it all back 🧵
While many US states refuse to legalize sports betting, fans turn to offshore gambling sites that accept Cryptocurrency.

Bovada is one of the most popular of these and has been accepting deposits on Ethereum since 2020.
NCAA football kicked off on Aug 27th, and the #NFL started slightly later on Sep 8th.

As football fanatics loaded their accounts from Aug 23rd to Sep 12th, @BovadaOfficial’s Ethereum wallet balance more than *tripled* from $8.5 million to $26.5 million. Image
@BovadaOfficial’s hourly deposits are usually around $1100.

On September 9th, a day before the football weekend, Bovada saw a staggering $2 million in deposit volume, in 1 hour alone!
This football season has been of historical significance for Bovada.

24 of Bovada’s 100 largest lifetime deposits via Ethereum have occurred since August 4th

.. with the single largest deposit ever totalling $3.5 million on Aug 31st. Image
However, on-chain data doesn’t just show that people are spending.

Gamblers are also winning

14 of Bovada’s 100 largest ERC-20 payouts occurred after September 12th, with the largest of these a whopping $3 million - their highest ever payout on Ethereum!

#GamblingTwitter Image
The significance of this is threefold:

1. Americans are true degens 🫡
2. Gambling deposits can accelerate the mass adoption of #Crypto.

People depositing $100 in Bovada are not necessarily Crypto natives.

They are sports fans seeking a way to move money without waiting days, getting blocked, or paying high fees.
The growth of ERC-20 deposits to Bovada suggests the public are becoming far more comfortable with blockchain technologies.

Web 3 tools which make people's lives easier, cheaper & more efficient are likely to grow in popularity faster.
3. Crypto makes onramping to gambling sites like Bovada seamless.

And sports betting provides all of the volatility, thrill & monetary upside to become Crypto natives' new outlet for outsized gains.

In fact, it appears this may already be happening ..
Thank you to @GiganticRebirth, @max_bronstein & @Bovada for inspiring this research 🫡

Part 2 on $CHZ & Fan Tokens coming soon.

(And please like & Retweet the first Tweet of this thread if you found it useful!) Image

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More from @ArkhamIntel

Oct 1
2022 has been a terrible year for almost all asset classes.

The US Dollar, however, has thrived.

On-chain data shows how Crypto market participants may have accidentally executed one of the greatest forex trades of this generation.

Read on to find out why 👇 Image
The US Dollar Index (DXY) represents the strength of the US Dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies.

As shown in the chart above, the index recently reached a 20-year high.
While the US Dollar has pumped, many major foreign currencies have dumped.

Many people's bank accounts experienced a 20% or more depreciation against the USD, as shown in this chart widely circulated around Twitter. Image
Read 9 tweets
Sep 28
Some call him loveable rogue, others see him as fraudster.

@0xSifu launched @UwU_Lend, a Money Market protocol with $54.4 million in TVL.

Founder of the notorious QuadrigaCX, CFO of @Wonderland_fi until forced to resign & brains behind the $SIFU token, Sifu is prolific .. Image
We looked at @0xSifu's last 1000 transactions above $10000 to see what he’s personally been up to in #Crypto markets.

The graph below shows Sifu's counterparties in his ongoing activities across the space. Image
Using Arkham’s visualizer, anyone can seamlessly see the movement of value across Cryptocurrency networks

And explore how different entities in the Crypto market are connected in unusual and interesting ways.
Read 6 tweets
Sep 23
Exchange deposit volume has long been used as an indicator by traders for bearish and bullish market sentiment.

But what do the types of assets flowing into exchanges tell us about market sentiment?

Arkham’s research team took a look. A thread 🧵 Image
Firstly, for the purposes of this thread, we define stablecoins as the most used tokens pegged to off-chain currencies like $USD.

Risk assets may be understood as all cryptoassets that are not this.
As shown by the chart, during bearish conditions, the majority of exchange deposit volume is in stablecoins.

In periods of bullishness, the majority of exchange deposits are risk assets.

From mid-2020 onwards, risk assets’ share of deposit volume saw a significant uptrend. Image
Read 12 tweets
Sep 20
The Wintermute Hacker’s Next Move♟️

Following today’s $160 million Wintermute exploit, the hacker deposited nearly all of the obtained stablecoins into Curve's 3pool

It is likely the hacker did this to avoid having their $USDT and $USDC blacklisted by Tether & Circle. Image
Now that the stolen tokens are deposited into the pool, they can no longer be blacklisted.

However it remains unclear what the hacker's next move will be.
Though they may choose to redeem $DAI with their 3CRV, which cannot be blacklisted, such a move would be straightforward to trace on chain.

The Polynetwork hacker was the last to use the @CurveFinance 3pool in this way, in the 2nd biggest #DeFi hack in history. Image
Read 6 tweets
Sep 20
Today's $160 million Wintermute hack is the 7th largest in DeFi history.

The hacker’s top current holdings:

$114M in 3CRV
$13M in $WBTC
$9.4M in $ETH

More info below

(1/4)
Wintermute’s on-chain holdings appear to be down to $55 million, 3x less than the hacker.

Top 3:

$12.6M in $LDO
$6.1M in $YFI
$5.9M in $BTRST

(2/4)
The hacker immediately moved nearly all of the stolen funds to another address, first funded 23 min before the hack with 10 ETH from Tornado Cash

After exchanging $12M in BUSD/TUSD for DAI, this 2nd hacker address deposited $114M in USDC/USDT/DAI to Curve, acquiring 3CRV.

(3/4)
Read 4 tweets
Jul 8
Coverage of the Celsius crisis has thus far been superficial and anecdotal.

Using on-chain and off-chain data and analytics, Arkham has revealed a more comprehensive picture of Celsius' activity. 1/14
Celsius appears to have entrusted corporate funds worth $530 million at the time of transfer to an apparent asset manager who engaged in high-risk leveraged crypto trading strategies. 2/14
These trading strategies resulted in apparent losses of $350 million when the asset manager returned capital compared to the value of the crypto assets Celsius originally sent. 3/14
Read 14 tweets

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