Thread by @DionisCenusa

#Critical_Infrastructure: The destruction of the Kerch Bridge (the longest bridge connecting illegally annexed Crimea with Russia - 19 km) has not been attributed to Ukraine (not yet). However, the bridge was a target for a long time, as without it supplies to the Crimea⤵️

would be severely damaged. Ukraine reserved the right to conduct a military war on all Russian-occupied territories, including those related to Crimea. The bridges is made up of double parallel railroad-road truss arch bridge. It complicates the transport of oil byproducts⤵️

and other industrial products to Crimea, since the railway line (Bagerovo–Vyshestebliyevskaya railway) was damaged by the explosion. In addition, the population will have difficulty fleeing the peninsula and will have to use maritime means of transport. This coincides with⤵️

the disconnection of the Zaporozhzhia NPP from the Ukrainian power grid. Russia has been targeting Ukraine's critical infrastructure during the 8 months of aggression, then the NS1 and NS2 pipelines were attacked in a submarine subversion in the Baltic Sea and now⤵️

the Kerch Bridge (launched in 2018-19, cost - 227 billion rubles or around 4 billion euros) was blown up. We are witnessing a new war against critical infrastructure that extends beyond Ukraine, in which different sides pursue⤵️

different geopolitical, geoeconomic and military objectives. More about the importance of critical infrastructure read in our recent book👇

https://twitter.com/dioniscenusa/status/1542872842332786688

An important aspect of targeting Russia-related critical infrastructure is that it demoralizes the population. Dysfunctional infrastructure causes economic and military pain and generates distress in society. Putin will accuse Ukraine and the US/West (most likely), but⤵️

https://twitter.com/mjluxmoore/status/1578672288949760002

by doing so the regime will again recognize the military capacity of the Ukrainian military that is superior compared to that possessed by Russian army (not counting the nuclear weapon). Blaming Ukraine has a two-edged sword effect for Russian propaganda.

It must be taken very seriously the likelihood of retaliation/escalation from Russia against critical infrastructure in Ukraine. I will reiterate that anti-missile protection, etc. it is equally important for civilian & military assertions, as well as for critical infrastructure.

The value of the damage to the bridge constitutes up to 500 million rubles or 8.2 million euros. As part of the property of the Russian state, the bridge was not insured. Repair costs will have to be covered from the federal budget.