Constantin Gurdgiev Profile picture
Oct 8 9 tweets 2 min read
Humor aside, this is a big #PSYOP win for #Ukraine. Logistically, as I understand it, traffic can be re-routed & rail operations are restored. This isn't the main issue. The main issue is reinforcement of perception of vulnerability that anyone in any Ukrainian area occupied +
+ by Russia is now experiencing. 1. Kerch bridge is in the geographical rearguard of the occupied territories. 2. Kerch bridge is the Number 1 strategic piece of infrastructure associated with Russian control of Ukrainian territories. 3. Kerch bridge has been identified on +
+ numerous occasions as being THE 'line in the sand' for targets that Ukraine may pursue. 4. Kerch bridge is a symbol - to all living in occupied territories - of Russia's 'will, power and promise'. So put simply, Kerch bridge is that line crossing which by the Ukrainians +
+ puts into questions Russia's ability to control/protect occupied territories, everywhere & anywhere. And whether it has collapsed/buckled/burned/got scratched is immaterial. What is material is that Russia's ability to control it was successfully challenged. This a systemic +
+ level loss of credibility for Russia. Not just military (Shoigu) but entire security apparatus.
+ Symbolically, the appearance of this operation to have been a form of partisan / sabotage warfare is also important. Russia was the original adopter of partisan warfare invention - shocking Napoleon et al. In Russian psyche, partisan warfare is signifying of people (not State)+
+ capacity to resist. And that capacity is more pure, more raw and more powerful than the State. My grandfather's generation recalled, quietly, under their breaths, Finnish resistance to Stalin, with admiration, as a sign of national resolve. I remember him saying that. +
+ Ditto for Stalin. Ditto for my own generation, where Soviet Afghan veterans always held credit for Afghan civilians/quasi official combatants. They hated them. But they respected their resolve to sacrifice for their land and that resolve, deployed at scale, scared Soviet +
+ soldiers & signaled to them that the war is un-winnable. In other words, partisan warfare / sabotage opps ARE different from using an American-supplied rocket to hit the same target. The latter raises hatred. The former raises fear & doubt.

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More from @GTCost

Mar 12
@LorcanRK I am not sure I made that point as a central one. In fact, I clearly stated - sin BBC program and in two podcasts I was interviewed on that there is no real alternative to sanctions, Lorcan. +
@LorcanRK + I am a bit worn out by some folks not being satisfied with my ideological purity on the matter, but my view should be very very clear. So here it comes:
@LorcanRK Regarding sanctions against Russia:
1. These are inevitable, considering Russian war against Ukraine.
2. Sanctions effectiveness will vary across time, duration and types.
3. Sanctions incidence on general Russian economy/population as opposed to impact oligarchs will be +
Read 9 tweets
Mar 12
Now, if anyone were to imagineer a more incompetent move than 'rushing someone to Moscow hotel to hide them from FSB', you'd be hard pressed to come up with one. @Googleorg are complete failure.
@Googleorg + Joking aside (times are serious enough), here is what this tells us about Western organizations - including most powerful corporates in the world - intentions. None of these involve protecting people from harm, as long as harm is associated with any sort of a gain. +
@Googleorg + Google failed to protect - as the first call of their corporate duty - their own executives. Do you think they will stand by, say, a Youtuber critical of Putin they platform? When the Youtuber is going to be dragged by FSB into Russian jail for violating the new 'law' on +
Read 6 tweets
Mar 11
A pipe dream, given politics involved. To replace Russian gas and oil, the EU will need hundreds of billions in investments into fossil fuels infrastructure & nuclear. And much of this will be (1) in pretty / pricey coastal areas (NIMBYISM thoughts...) and +
+ (2) will require years of planning, approvals, and construction. Worse. Once built, the entire thing will be a giant pile of captive assets (assets that are not going to yield ROI or ROA recovery because climate change will make them obsolete before they can pay back). +
+ So, 'we will invest in renewables' bullshit? Yep. It is bullshit because there is no storage solutions and there is no footprint that can be developed to reach that scale, nor installation bandwidth to do within 5 years time. Back to reality, space cadets, thus. +
Read 5 tweets
Mar 7, 2021
The resignations DID NOT come 'after CB fine', @Independent_ie. They came following a public exposure by the likes of @thecurrency journalists of the systemic nature of Davy & its governance failures. @centralbank_ie did its job. But it is public outcry that got the job done.
@Independent_ie @thecurrency @centralbank_ie Let's give this a thought: Davy board and management knew for months that the investigation was underway. They also knew they were in the wrong. No one resigned for all that time. The fine was announced, publicly on March 2. No one resigned that day. In fact, Davy leadership +
@Independent_ie @thecurrency @centralbank_ie + rushed out to massage the public & the media with utterly bizarre arguments (e.g. 'private matter'). NTMA stepped in on the March 3, then firmed up on March 4. Davy was facing, by the end of March 4 with: 1) NTMA - one of its largest sources of income - being on its neck, +
Read 14 tweets
Nov 4, 2020
#Election2020 will be dragging on as counts continue, but one thing is clear: there is no 'Blue Wave'. It did not happen. Not to claim any forecaster who predicted one (many did) has been useless - the art of predicting is just that, the art, not an exact science. But... and +
+ there is a major 'but' here: #Election2020 was supposed to be a pivotal vote against Trumpism, populism & sectarian nature of the two-party system. It turned out to be exact opposite of that, confirming & reinforcing the massive canyons that divide the nation voters. +
+ The 'United States' are now even less 'united' & the division lines remain the same: coastal liberalism vs hinterland populism; disenfranchised rural & small towns communities vs empowered suburban upper middle class, with pretend-to-matter 'urban poor'. There is no healing +
Read 5 tweets
Nov 3, 2020
The degree of delusion gripping Academia via @chronicle The folks who SHOULD know that no one in the Universities sector gives a damn about academic staff, and that 99% of universities are exploiting adjunct staff while paying lip service to the need for stronger protection.
My F&SKING physical technology is breaking down under the weight of videos, platforms, tools, discussions, modules, email accounts. Has ANYONE ever bothered to explain to the students complaining about our 'low engagement' levels what we are dealing with? Nopeee, not @chronicle.+
+ And to add insult to the injury, I have to go through training modules on how to manage my 'university-issued' laptop and mobile (none issued to me) while wasting battery & my own time doing so.
Read 12 tweets

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