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Constantin Gurdgiev Profile picture
Constantin Gurdgiev
@GTCost
Academic https://t.co/fgLsEfzrGU & https://t.co/GCTn51Lm9S. Research in financial markets & VUCA. If you are managing risk, you are mismanaging reality. 8,9,14
May 26 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
Here's a problem. This is an illustration of #Germany's industrial over-production/excess capacity. The solution to this would involve: short-term devaluation of its currency, mid-term course reversal correction, & long-term structural reforms. Yet, none of these are feasible.+ + Short-term devaluation is prevented by a combination of #German heuristics & ECB structure. Berlin ain't Beijing. Mid-term course reversal correction is impossible because it would require return to Moscow's 'orbit', exit from Ukraine War & surrender. Germany is capable of all+
Mar 13 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
#Ireland is an interesting country & a very revealing political 'laboratory' for the entire West. Let's have a quick thread on that. Ireland came into this century on foot of being a failed state in the 1980s. As such, its younger generations grew up in an environment of rapid+ + and largely positive dynamic change, anchored to expectations - perfectly reasonable - that such changes will continue into the future. This is not a form of 'exuberant' expectations, but, crucially, a form of anchored expectations. Anchored in reality. So as the result, we +
Mar 9 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
I might not earn myself any new friends and might even lose some old friends, but, as a person who spent now good part of 15 years in senior non-exec roles in Irish non-profit sector, I believe NGOs should stop issuing recommendation on how people should vote. Bear with me for + + a second here. NGOs have expertise & knowledge of many social & economic conditions first hand. As such they can and should provide a clear & valuable informational advice to the public. Share knowledge, experiences, voices etc. But NGOs - and ALL other organizations - should+
Mar 8 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
Few lessons from American 'corporatism' of recent decades. Bear with me for a thread. | There is a lot that is rotten in the theoretically-perfected system of US (&, increasingly, European) fetishizing of 'shareholders value' (SV) as being the core objective of corporations. + + 1. SV can be optimized by fraud. This fraud would be detectable, were data providers (e.g. auditors) were not maximizing their own SV - Enron was the example to rest our reforms on, but we blew that opportunity. Auditors continue to trade in non-transparent, non-verifiable +
Dec 20, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
This is an absolute must-read on #vultures in #Ireland: . Now, I am not a legal expert. So will focus just one - major one - aspect of Ed Honohan's testimony: THIS ONE... +oireachtas.ie/en/debates/deb… "Does the Central Bank know, or is it a RINO, a regulator in name only? Here is a question... What reason do they consider valid for the purposes of ... terms referred to in Article 3(3) of the 1993 directive...? Perhaps it could be put more succinctly thus: +
Jun 24, 2023 • 24 tweets • 4 min read
A bit of a thread on my thinking about Progozhin's bizarre March on Moscow: + A lot of Western media are interpreting Prigozhin's actions as either a regime change / coup or a rebellion against Moscow. So far, I do not see any evidence of this. Prigozhin clearly defined his objective as forcing removal of Army command/leadership. Not regime change(Putin)+
May 30, 2023 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
So... ca 39% of U.S. adults have a side hustle, according to Bankrate survey. A side hustle/gig supplements regular income, & can be delivery driving, dog walking, babysitting, consulting or even building a new business. Which is a bit of a problem (later). + + An average gig brings in $810/mo, which is a necessary income for ~ 1/3 of side hustlers who say they need it for day-to-day living expenses. 27% want it for discretionary spending, 25% use the earnings for savings & 12% are using the cash flow to pay down debt. This is an +
May 29, 2023 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
These are important questions to ask. The problem is - there are no ready answers available. There is no singular & 'perfect' democratic model. And there is no longer a singular & 'perfect' authoritarian one. The questions @FareedZakaria asking about Turkey's electoral system + + also can & should be asked about the US system, & about many European systems. The core question is what constitutes genuine democratic choice? And whilst we think it is an easy answer that can follow it, e.g. "a choice absent coercion", because it is harder & harder for us +
Oct 8, 2022 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Humor aside, this is a big #PSYOP win for #Ukraine. Logistically, as I understand it, traffic can be re-routed & rail operations are restored. This isn't the main issue. The main issue is reinforcement of perception of vulnerability that anyone in any Ukrainian area occupied + + by Russia is now experiencing. 1. Kerch bridge is in the geographical rearguard of the occupied territories. 2. Kerch bridge is the Number 1 strategic piece of infrastructure associated with Russian control of Ukrainian territories. 3. Kerch bridge has been identified on +
Mar 12, 2022 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
@LorcanRK I am not sure I made that point as a central one. In fact, I clearly stated - sin BBC program and in two podcasts I was interviewed on that there is no real alternative to sanctions, Lorcan. + @LorcanRK + I am a bit worn out by some folks not being satisfied with my ideological purity on the matter, but my view should be very very clear. So here it comes:
Mar 12, 2022 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Now, if anyone were to imagineer a more incompetent move than 'rushing someone to Moscow hotel to hide them from FSB', you'd be hard pressed to come up with one. @Googleorg are complete failure. @Googleorg + Joking aside (times are serious enough), here is what this tells us about Western organizations - including most powerful corporates in the world - intentions. None of these involve protecting people from harm, as long as harm is associated with any sort of a gain. +
Mar 11, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
A pipe dream, given politics involved. To replace Russian gas and oil, the EU will need hundreds of billions in investments into fossil fuels infrastructure & nuclear. And much of this will be (1) in pretty / pricey coastal areas (NIMBYISM thoughts...) and + + (2) will require years of planning, approvals, and construction. Worse. Once built, the entire thing will be a giant pile of captive assets (assets that are not going to yield ROI or ROA recovery because climate change will make them obsolete before they can pay back). +
Mar 7, 2021 • 14 tweets • 8 min read
The resignations DID NOT come 'after CB fine', @Independent_ie. They came following a public exposure by the likes of @thecurrency journalists of the systemic nature of Davy & its governance failures. @centralbank_ie did its job. But it is public outcry that got the job done. @Independent_ie @thecurrency @centralbank_ie Let's give this a thought: Davy board and management knew for months that the investigation was underway. They also knew they were in the wrong. No one resigned for all that time. The fine was announced, publicly on March 2. No one resigned that day. In fact, Davy leadership +
Nov 4, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
#Election2020 will be dragging on as counts continue, but one thing is clear: there is no 'Blue Wave'. It did not happen. Not to claim any forecaster who predicted one (many did) has been useless - the art of predicting is just that, the art, not an exact science. But... and + + there is a major 'but' here: #Election2020 was supposed to be a pivotal vote against Trumpism, populism & sectarian nature of the two-party system. It turned out to be exact opposite of that, confirming & reinforcing the massive canyons that divide the nation voters. +
Nov 3, 2020 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
The degree of delusion gripping Academia via @chronicle The folks who SHOULD know that no one in the Universities sector gives a damn about academic staff, and that 99% of universities are exploiting adjunct staff while paying lip service to the need for stronger protection. My F&SKING physical technology is breaking down under the weight of videos, platforms, tools, discussions, modules, email accounts. Has ANYONE ever bothered to explain to the students complaining about our 'low engagement' levels what we are dealing with? Nopeee, not @chronicle.+
Apr 11, 2020 • 23 tweets • 4 min read
There is a common idiocy going on w the #COVID__19 narratives that resurfaces every few days, whereby 2-3 days decreases/dips in cases or death counts are interpreted as 'pass the peak' signs and extrapolated to the symmetric 'bell-shaped curve' expectation of future declines. + + So far, I am not seeing it. Around the peak in a number of EU countries (earlier onset counts, so longer data), there is some volatility and downside, but not an 'exponential' decline. In other words, there is no 'sharp fall-off'. This #COVID__19 pandemic ain't going away.+
Dec 18, 2019 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
We are in a New Age of #risk. Bear with me, folks. We have lived through an unprecedented decade of #monetary experimentation on a scale unknown in modern times and, certainly, never seen since the end of the #gold standard. Cash - traditionally a cornerstone of risk management + + Is now generating zero-to-negative returns. The only way to hold it is to make a bet on a massive decline in risky assets valuations going forward. As uncertainty (and risk) of negative and more deeply-negative yields on deposits rises (and it is rising), we've converted cash +
May 25, 2019 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
What the article does not say: Russia currently has 9 nuclear icebreakers. Of these, FIVE are Soviet era construction, only ONE is Putin era built (2007 replacement for the decommissioned ship that 1st sailed in 1955). Adding three to the fleet will allow Russia to decommission)+ + at least two that are still operating, but were launched in 1975 and 1977. Russia/USSR operated nuclear icebreakers since 1955 - well before anyone saw Russians in the Arctic as a New Existential Threat to Liberty and Democracy of the Free Western Society of Walruses. +
Apr 13, 2019 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
Kelleher v Nama case in Chicago is an embodiment of two key aspects of Irish-styled ‘governance’. (1) Nama argument that it is a state agency (not even state owned) is obviously flying the face of thousands of Nama, Irish Government, ECB, Eurostat etc statements claiming + + or agreeing with the claim that Nama is a ‘privately-owned’ ‘arms-length’ agency, with 51% ownership by private investment funds, albeit with State veto. (2) Kelleher case is about fire sale that Nama carried out at a massive loss to the taxpayers of his Chicago Spire site +
Oct 13, 2018 • 24 tweets • 5 min read
Meanwhile in #Ireland, democracy completed its circle of evolution, with the largest opposition party begging its competitors who currently lead the Government to remain in power. In light of my previous tweet (a quip) a more serious question: Is #Ireland likely to become the next European domino to fall to the growing pressure toward populism in politics? + 1/17
Sep 30, 2018 • 19 tweets • 7 min read
Why GDP and GNP should NOT be used as reference points for measuring the size of #Ireland economy? Two charts: 1) The two measures are not even on-trend with the real demand, 2) The gap between MNCs-shenanigans in Irish Nat. Accounts & the real domestic demand is MASSIVE 82% + + So for all my learned friends, esp in the likes of @CatoInstitute @FraserInstitute @danieljmitchell et al: what your Indices of Economic Freedom rankings for #Ireland reflect is the vast transfer of economic power from the residents of Ireland to Multinational Corporates. +