Copper industry may deliver 1.5 million tons from greenfield capacity in the period 2025-30, with +50% of the potential identified supply likely to hit the market after 2030. This is not on time for a green transition.
We think there is greenfield copper projects with more than 285 million tons of resources, with the ability to produce more than 6 million tons a year in some stage of development. Bloomberg and GS research supports similar type numbers.
About 30% of projects are either being ramped up or are in the late stages of construction, and could deliver 1.9 million tons of copper annually by 2025. Beyond 2025 S/D balance probably requires ~500,000 tons of new capacity each year, by our calculations.
Good copper investments are few and far between. The potential asymmetry in copper bets in the 2025-2030 era is dramatic. Going to be ramping my copper discussion on Twitter going forward, it’s a gap in #mintwit coverage.
Inspired by @NeckarValue recent interview with @alixpasquet, going to deliberately use Twitter to try and learn and share copper insights and trade opportunities #copper
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