Massif Capital Founder/PM. Real asset investing in materials, energy and industrials. RT are not endorsement.
Apr 11 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
A thread on DRC and Alphamin. I am seeing lots of random people concerned about M23 and potential violence at $AFM. 1/N
First, remember that this is a long-standing conflict in the perpetually restive eastern provinces. There is nothing new in the news, and most of the news I see is months out of date. 2/n
May 12, 2023 • 15 tweets • 4 min read
1/ I went searching for a short today and this is what I found...this thread is not investment advice, it is not a full analysis, this is a first cut during the first stage of research and as such represents unsophisticated thoughts and untested hypothesis on $CMI...
2/ There has been a significant decline in used heavy truck values this year:
Oct 11, 2022 • 20 tweets • 4 min read
1/20 South American Copper 🧵1: Traditional stomping grounds of Chile and Peru appear increasingly difficult jurisdictions for big copper mines. Grades are declining and the PolRisk arising from fiscal uncertainty in both Chile and Peru are problematic. #mintwit#copper#PolRisk
2/20 I don't think searching for copper equity opportunities in the region makes sense at the current prices we see. You might be paying up for quality in a few cases ($FIL comes to mind) but I expect the next few years to be difficult ones for Chile and Peru.
Oct 9, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Copper industry may deliver 1.5 million tons from greenfield capacity in the period 2025-30, with +50% of the potential identified supply likely to hit the market after 2030. This is not on time for a green transition.
We think there is greenfield copper projects with more than 285 million tons of resources, with the ability to produce more than 6 million tons a year in some stage of development. Bloomberg and GS research supports similar type numbers.
Jun 15, 2022 • 30 tweets • 6 min read
1/30 @CathieDWood Interview in the latest GS Top of Mind Report focused on Equity Bear Markets...I am always interested to hear what she has to say about oil as she comes to all these questions from a perspective completely foreign to me
2/30 I am also always interested in trying to unpack the underlying assumptions, so I will start with the EV growth rate assumption, which is the driver of her oil demand destruction thesis.