One of the reasons why Bernanke was chosen to run the Fed back in the day was his contribution to studying the Great Depression and the failures of central banks.
An error he did not repeat during his tenure..
Very interesting timing on this one:
as the BoE is intervening heavily in the UK gilt market,
as US banks are facing $4bn of losses on bad loans,
as Credit Suisse is fighting its own liquidity crisis,
...
...the message from the Nobel Committee is: "their research helped make the banking system less vulnerable."
And
"The laureates’ insights have improved our ability to avoid both serious crises and expensive bailouts,"
Cool. Let's see if it holds :)
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This year's econ #Nobel Prize was awarded to three professors for their research on banks and financial crises.
What struck me is this: "The laureates’ insights have improved our ability to avoid both serious crises and expensive bailouts,"
Did it though? 🧵 👇
1/ First of all, let me be clear that I do not express any doubts towards the academic contributions of profs. Bernanke, Diamond, or Dybvig.
I read Bernanke's pre-Fed work on the Great Depression & am familiar with their work.
In a purely academic sense - kudos to the winners!
2/ It's the policy implications that I find problematic.
Three points to be made here:
1 - QE arguably made the system more vulnerable, not less.
2 - systemic risk was amplified, not reduced
3 - the bailouts *were* expensive (and politically driven)
The best thing about reading a book is when you can apply its lessons almost immediately.
And @donnelly_brent's book Alpha Trader is full of great practical advice!
Things I used this week: 1. Avoid gap risk! 2. Pre-mortem for each trade 3. Be tight/aggressive
The set-up:
I had a SPY 408c Sep30 position opened last Thu.
Mainly to act as a new hedge for my (larger) SPY short position.
Yesterday I opened a QQQ 310c Sep30 to take advantage of the rally a bit further
Overall, I'm net long going into the week. And it's going well.
Today is the CPI report.
The old me would have done the following:
"all signs are pointing to inflation going down, consensus estimates suggest the same, in July it surprised on the downside and the markets rallied - so I'll keep my calls overnight, and ride em all the way up."