Vuk Vukovic Profile picture
Oct 10 4 tweets 1 min read
Well, this is interesting - a #Nobel to the man who brought us QE :)
One of the reasons why Bernanke was chosen to run the Fed back in the day was his contribution to studying the Great Depression and the failures of central banks.

An error he did not repeat during his tenure..
Very interesting timing on this one:
as the BoE is intervening heavily in the UK gilt market,

as US banks are facing $4bn of losses on bad loans,

as Credit Suisse is fighting its own liquidity crisis,
...
...the message from the Nobel Committee is: "their research helped make the banking system less vulnerable."

And

"The laureates’ insights have improved our ability to avoid both serious crises and expensive bailouts,"

Cool. Let's see if it holds :)

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More from @wolf_vukovic

Oct 10
This year's econ #Nobel Prize was awarded to three professors for their research on banks and financial crises.

What struck me is this: "The laureates’ insights have improved our ability to avoid both serious crises and expensive bailouts,"

Did it though? 🧵 👇
1/
First of all, let me be clear that I do not express any doubts towards the academic contributions of profs. Bernanke, Diamond, or Dybvig.

I read Bernanke's pre-Fed work on the Great Depression & am familiar with their work.

In a purely academic sense - kudos to the winners! Image
2/
It's the policy implications that I find problematic.

Three points to be made here:

1 - QE arguably made the system more vulnerable, not less.
2 - systemic risk was amplified, not reduced
3 - the bailouts *were* expensive (and politically driven)
Read 17 tweets
Oct 4
It’s been 15 months of doing #BASON predictions @OraclumIS and live trading them using our options strategy

I've shared the results with you every week, during good times and bad.

Now I wanna show you how a BASON-led full portfolio performed during this year's bear run 🧵
1/
First, about the unusually good results (+155% CAGR, 10.6 Sharpe)

Basically, it's about (1) asymmetric skew - when we're wrong, we lose very little (up to 5%), and when we're right we can make considerably more.

and (2) profits are taken weekly (each Fri) and are compounded.
2/
This return (and the weekly volatility in the graph above) is for the *whole* portfolio, where options were only 10% of it.

If we just look at the options part, its return was >1400%

But I'm not gonna place so much risk on only one strategy, ofc Hence the diversification 👇
Read 14 tweets
Sep 23
Recommendation: Investing courses on @MavenHQ you might be interested in

👇 🧵
Learning all about macro is just the first important step towards becoming a better investor and increasing your knowledge on the subject

The next steps - understanding how to build a portfolio or trade successfully - are just as crucial for success
To that end, I'm very happy to personally recommend a few great courses,

each of which is also ran as a cohort-based course on Maven 👇
Read 8 tweets
Sep 13
The best thing about reading a book is when you can apply its lessons almost immediately.

And @donnelly_brent's book Alpha Trader is full of great practical advice!

Things I used this week:
1. Avoid gap risk!
2. Pre-mortem for each trade
3. Be tight/aggressive
The set-up:

I had a SPY 408c Sep30 position opened last Thu.

Mainly to act as a new hedge for my (larger) SPY short position.

Yesterday I opened a QQQ 310c Sep30 to take advantage of the rally a bit further

Overall, I'm net long going into the week. And it's going well.
Today is the CPI report.

The old me would have done the following:
"all signs are pointing to inflation going down, consensus estimates suggest the same, in July it surprised on the downside and the markets rallied - so I'll keep my calls overnight, and ride em all the way up."
Read 11 tweets
Aug 9
Yes, we're back with our competition today.

So let's go through a quick thread of what's been going on in the markets during the past few weeks,

and whether the 10% 🐻 rally is over or not...

+ some cool new stats from the #BASON

🧵👇
1/
Despite having yet another high inflation print on July 13th (9.1% CPI),

and the Fed hiking another 75bps two weeks later bringing the FOMC rate to 2.5%,

the markets rallied to over 10% the past 4 weeks.

Why?
2/
Well, investors were hooked on a so-called Fed pivot (and a potential ‘soft landing’)

Powell said that by raising rates to 2.5% they’ve reached a neutral level of interest rates.

This was seen as a clear sign of relief.
Read 19 tweets
Jul 1
You might have missed @michaeljburry's tweet mentioning the so-called Bullwhip Effect.

What is that?

And why it matters for anticipating #inflation?

🧵 👇 Image
@michaeljburry 1/
When retailers have too much inventories stockpiled,

because of earlier supply chain issues,

they will eventually be forced to drop prices to get rid of all the excess inventory.

This is happening because of the Bullwhip Effect. Image
@michaeljburry 2/
Basically, the Bullwhip Effect was what caused the supply chain inventory problem in the first place.

This illustration sums it up nicely: Image
Read 19 tweets

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