US National Security Strategy is out. "PRC presents America’s most consequential geopolitical
challenge. Although the Indo-Pacific is where its outcomes will be most acutely shaped, there are
significant global dimensions to this challenge." #strategy whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…
"Russia poses an immediate and ongoing threat to
the regional security order in Europe and it is a source of disruption and instability globally but it lacks the across the spectrum capabilities of the PRC." p. 11
"The PRC and Russia are increasingly aligned with each other but the challenges they pose are, in important ways, distinct. We will prioritize maintaining an enduring competitive edge over the PRC while constraining a still profoundly dangerous Russia." p. 23 #DragonBear
"Competition with the PRC is most pronounced in the Indo-Pacific, but it is also increasingly global. Around the world, the contest to write the rules of the road and shape the relationships that govern global affairs is playing out in every region.." p. 24
"Over the past decade, the 🇷🇺government has chosen to pursue an imperialist foreign policy with the goal of overturning key elements of the international order. This culminated in a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in an attempt to topple its government & bring it under 🇷🇺control."
"More broadly, Putin’s war has profoundly diminished Russia’s status vis-a-vis China and other Asian powers such as India and Japan. Moscow’s soft power and diplomatic influence have waned, while its efforts to weaponize energy have backfired." p. 26
"Europe has been, and will continue to be, our foundational partner in addressing the full range of global challenges. To effectively pursue a common global agenda, we are broadening and deepening the transatlantic bond." p. 38

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Velina Tchakarova

Velina Tchakarova Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @vtchakarova

Sep 25
It's time for a big thread 🧵 about the global triple crisis in fuel, food and fertilizers.
When it started, how it continues, and what lies ahead amid Russia's war on Ukraine in Europe and the growing Sino-American bifurcation of the global system. #realpolitik #geoeconomics
Food comes first.
@yaneerbaryam is the complex systems scientist who predicted the Arab Spring by indicating in his research in early 2011 that widespread violence would occur if skyrocketing global food prices (surging Food Price Index) were not reduced. vice.com/en/article/43y… Image
US policies on ethanol which means a huge amount of US corn is used to power cars rather than food & commodity market deregulation in late 90s were major cause of skyrocketing food prices. The peaks in the Food Price Index were the triggers of the food riots and the Arab Spring.
Read 68 tweets
Sep 15
Against the backdrop of China-Russia meeting between Xi Jinping and Putin, what are the real motives and geopolitical interests of the two leaders and their countries to enter a modus vivendi of systemic coordination?
My thread 🧵on the #DragonBear from #realpolitik perspective.
First and foremost, it's about a matter of survival in a highly volatile global system. Russia's political, economic, and financial survival will depend on China amid the country's worst isolation by the West and following the military failures on the battle fields in Ukraine.
The international order is in a transitional phase in which two centres of power are emerging—the US and China. In this context, China needs to avoid any scenarios of domestic instability following the pandemic and at the same time face global system bifurcation.
Read 21 tweets
Sep 7
Putin claimed that, if Turkey is excluded as an intermediary, almost all grain exported from Ukraine is sent not to developing & poorest countries, but to EU countries. Only 2 out of 87 ships were loaded w/ 60,000t of food out of 2 million tons were transported under UN WFP. 1/
As of 4 September, the total tonnage of grain and other foodstuffs exported from the three Ukrainian ports has been 2,076,280 metric tons. A total of 187 voyages (100 inbound and 87 outbound) have been enabled so far. 2/
What Putin didn't tell is that out of 77 ships, 155,240t #wheat went to Kenya, Egypt, Sudan, & Somalia.
82,100t grain went to India.
126,234t to Iran.
138,720t to Korea.
156,840t to China.
456,508t to Türkiye.
"Almost all" is not even half of it - 842,040t went to the EU. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Aug 3
Repositioning the global supply chains away from China is already becoming a reality following the COVID-19, and the Indo-Pacific region is about to become a forefront of this geoeconomic reconfiguration, due to the withdrawal of American & international capital from Beijing. 1/
Major geoeconomic opportunities and challenges will appear following the diversification of the global supply chains. A global disruption of supply chains is coupled with the imperilled rules-based global order caused by eroding international structures. 2/
The reconfiguration will be initiated by the US to bring manufacturing and supply chains back home or to branch out to American allies and partners from the Anglosphere of influence such as UK, Australia, Japan, and increasingly India. 3/
Read 10 tweets
Jul 19
Gazprom's announcement that it cannot guarantee gas supplies due to "extraordinary" circumstances must be seen in the context of ongoing war against 🇺🇦.
🇷🇺 is intensifying attacks "in all operational sectors" of the war, signaling that it’s working toward unilateral ceasefire.1/
This move will help 🇷🇺 consolidate its territorial gains in eastern & southern 🇺🇦, replenish its troops, & freeze military operations until the next phase of the war. In the meantime, Russia is intensifying its commodities war vs Europe by freezing gas supplies through NS1. 2/
This move has a double meaning in the current context. It must be seen as a harbinger of a total gas embargo ahead of the winter season, as European storage capacities are not filled to the required extent, 3/
Read 7 tweets
May 29
Not all realists share #Mearsheimer views on Russia's war against Ukraine. I am positioned in the #realpolitik corner while using #geopolitics and #geoeconomics as the main pillars of #foresight.This is my assessment since Dec 2021 (see pinned tweet) on Russia's plan.
Thread🧵👇
There won't be any peace negotiations no matter how often Germany & France (small-size countries in Europe have no geopolitical weight) call Putin. Once Russia establishes control over Donbas & reaches its war goals in the this phase, Moscow will unilaterally declare ceasefire.
Preventing Russia from winning in this critical phase of the war requires the heavy weapons deliveries to Ukraine to sustain the Russian attacks. If Ukraine has to give up on territories in Donbas for the sake of Western appeasement, this won't stop the war. On the opposite.
Read 26 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(