Thread by @JBelcourt73

Since T-62 tanks are trending this is one bandwagon I don't mind jumping on. By now most of you have seen this video. Most of the comments are about how Russia is running out of better tanks.

https://twitter.com/ian_matveev/status/1580216195546243072?s=20&t=ZzXMSxs4Fo9XWnWyZzXMGw

After all why put in an order for 800 T-62M/MV or whatever M? ends up coming out of these workshops if you still had plenty of T-64/72/80/90's laying around. I think it is probably more subtle than that. First, Russia was supposed to have had around 10,000 of so 64+ series

T tanks in storage plus an active fleet somewhere between 23-2800. We have not seen losses high enough to seriously threaten a running out of hulls. Plus if Russian tank losses were in the mid to high thousands, real WWII 1943 on the Eastern front type losses a paltry 800 T-62's

would not last long. So it's something else. Digging in to that question is today's topic. Lets dig in, the T-62 presents several problems for the Russians. 1. 25% higher manning costs 2. reduced survivability 3. increased logistical burdens 4. reduced fight-ability and 5.

reduced gun power. I am going to go point by point. ON number 1: 25% increased manning costs. The T-62 requires a human loader so each tank platoon will require the equivalent of an extra tanks crew to properly man. While this will have the upside of letting each crew get more

rest and do more PM because they have gone backwards in other areas this important benefit of 4 man crews is muted and all you are really left with is more mouths to feed. It also means that when dealing with number 2 that you have to buy more Ladas. Even with applique armor and

ERA panels the T-62 is just not set up to survive on a battlefield equipped with NLAWS and javelins. Granted this is not news, nithing except maybe the newest T-90M has really done all that well against modern NATO provided AT weapons. But the point remains that grandpa's tanks

are not going to do any better and don't add to the sustainable combat power of a BTG being assaulted by the Ukrainians. What they do add to the BTG is increased logistical burdens. especially if they are sent as 1 for 1 replacement for more modern tanks that get knocked out.

they have different ammo, require more food for the crew, different spares, possibly different POL all adding up to needing even more scarce and highly valuable trucks. Best bet is a platoon for platoon or company for company swap. Something I suggested back when we first saw the

T-62's heading to the front. Those were foreign sale models and likely went to LNR/DPR units, these new-old ones though are being built for the Russian army itself. An army that is now going to have to use a very complex machine in a high intensity war which brings up

number 5, reduced fight-ability. From its super complex range finder, lack of any real night vision aside from a highly visible short ranged IR search light, old radios everything about this tank is less capable especially number 6 reduced gun power. The 2A20 isn't a bad gun.

When the tanks were built it had very good performance against peer opponents but this isn't an Arab-Israeli war in the 1970's or a face off along the Inter-German frontier in the 1960-80's. This is a high-tech high intensity war in Ukraine in 2022. The 115mm will struggle to

deliver knock out blows against more modern designs even if the crew can gel together, get the range finder figured out and properly bore sight the gun and get in a shot at the enemy in the first place. So why use it, why use a tank that stopped production 50 years ago given all

draw backs and a depot stock of thousands of more modern designs? I can't prove it, but I think the answer is in the ammo. Back during the First Gulf War Iraqi T-72's got slaughtered for among many reasons trying to shoot Abrams with 3VBM-8 APDS rounds that were steel and they

tended to deform and ricochet or pancake when they hit Abram's armor. The round was basically a practice round but was sold to export customers as a war shot. I can't prove this but production of more modern rounds was probably lagging, and the Soviets were trying to build up

war stocks in Eastern Europe and could not divert more modern rounds to foreign sales. Then the Soviet Union fell apart and the Russian economy collapsed. I am guessing that production of 125mm ammunition likely stalled out and the build up of stocks was further hit by needing

to export real war shots to export customers after the horrible showing in Iraq leading to a situation where ammunition levels were big but not growing. Not that big of an issue if all you are going to do is support foreign sales and have occasional 3 day SMO's. However,

7 months of high intensity way while under sanctions is a different matter. I really think an ammunition shortage, or fears of one is a big factor in bringing the T-62's back on-line. There are likely warehouses full of 115mm ammunition and at 6 past Sunday a tank is better than

no tank. To me, an ammunition shortage is my suspect number 1. So I've put my marker down. I will also note that Ukraine may also feel the bite at some point, but stocks in former Warsaw Pact countries may well be enough to keep her guns fed for far longer. and a final note it

might not even be a shortage of 125mm ammo in general but of a specific type of 125mm ammo that is critical to combat operations APDS or HEAT not necessarily APDS AND HEAT. I will also admit, that talking about Russia running out of tank ammo was not on my 2022 Bingo card.

Yet here we are. More evidence of what Ukrainian valor combined with NATO tech can do. T-62's getting sent to combat are a direct result of what the votes by my leadership @JohnBoozman, @SenTomCotton and @RepFrenchHill has enabled. #Putin is too prideful and stupid too admit

defeat but we can all see it now. But impending defeat is not the same as the war is over. The dying continues apace, Russia is still trying to achieve her goal of a #GenocideOfUkrainians as the last act of #russiaisaterrorisstate. So our duty has not ended. We must keep giving.

NVG's and drones we fund are just as crucial as any other system, the medical aid helps Ukrainians survive so the need continues. Charites like @MriyaAid are worthy of your support. We must also keep bonking vatniks and trolls. That of course requires good information and my go

to is @MriyaReport. So a couple of closing notes. My essays from tomorrow through Sunday may be missing, late or short. I am headed to the hills to go to Rendezvous in the Ozarks at Mullberry Mountain. Second I have a standing challenge to @mtracey $100 donation to a pro-Ukraine

charity if he can cite a law of war prohibiting manned weapons or protecting bridges used by the military. Until Ukraine wins on Ukraine's terms: Slava Ukraini! @mfa_russia <--- still losing and not even the ghosts of Khrushchev's army can save you.

@threadreaderapp unroll please