When will Russian elites finally #split over war in Ukraine, western pressure and Putin's growing incompetence to provide at least some hope for the future?
Will it bring down the Putin's regime?
1/12
Will it bring down the Putin's regime?
1/12
First of all the idea of elite split comes from Latin America and South of Europe examples where based on ideological divided we saw a confrontation of hard-liners and pro-reform groups. Ideally a compromise between the two guarantees a way to democracy.
2/12
2/12
Soviet Union saw such a split in the last 1980s during perestroika but there was no compromise that eventually led to failed coup and dissolution of the state. Moreover, ideology as such was secondary.
Most post-soviet states resolved their conflicts differently altogether
3/12
Most post-soviet states resolved their conflicts differently altogether
3/12
In order for be "proper" split you should ideally have a rather collective body that governs the country so that there are stable competing fractions within. At very least - something like Politburo.
So they could resolve at least some issues through informal negotiations
4/12
So they could resolve at least some issues through informal negotiations
4/12
The problem with Putin's Russia is that there is nothing of this kind. There is a key decision-maker who's decisions other demonstratively approve.
Each member of the elite is tied to Putin individually - not through a collective body
5/12
Each member of the elite is tied to Putin individually - not through a collective body
5/12
In order to have a split you want members of the elite to be engaged in regular cooperation. In Russia - elites are individually hand-picked by Putin. Members of the elite some times cooperate but mostly about a bit of influence and money
6/12
6/12
Cooperation is almost exclusively ad hoc and never led to formation of fractions or cliques. The more infighting and chaos the better for the man on top who acts like a judge and provider of "peace"
Even "Kadyrov vs. MOD"- is more about rent and power than elite split
7/12
Even "Kadyrov vs. MOD"- is more about rent and power than elite split
7/12
What is crucial - it doesn't mean all of the elite supports the war Putin started. Data indicates that there is a lot of individual discontent but none of the collective.
It kind of resembles how individual Russians who oppose war act
8/12
It kind of resembles how individual Russians who oppose war act
8/12
they do not protest because of fear of repression and lack of faith that it could actually change anything.
So we have a "negative consensus" present - an alternative to present is unrealistic/undesirable.
9/12
So we have a "negative consensus" present - an alternative to present is unrealistic/undesirable.
9/12
So far we've seen very localized protests against mobilization with no response among the elites.
Military failures so far lead to pro-war group consolidation only.
Defeatists within or from abroad do not offer behavior pattern that Russian elites can follow.
10/12
Military failures so far lead to pro-war group consolidation only.
Defeatists within or from abroad do not offer behavior pattern that Russian elites can follow.
10/12
"What could shake the current equilibrium and encourage the Russian elites to act collectively?"
@Vladimir_Gelman in this piece for @RiddleRussia argues that chances for organized split at this moment are slim.
For details reasons and examples see
ridl.io/there-will-be-…
11/12
@Vladimir_Gelman in this piece for @RiddleRussia argues that chances for organized split at this moment are slim.
For details reasons and examples see
ridl.io/there-will-be-…
11/12
Personal speculation: Increase of mil defeats and radically increasing costs of human lives (due to mobilization) will lead to sporadic protests across Russia and bring emergence of ad-hoc elite coalitions.
When fear of Putin will become less than fear of total collapse
12/12
When fear of Putin will become less than fear of total collapse
12/12
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