In the animation above you can see the end of #TSKarl#Karl as it, like its parent storm #HurricaneJulia was pushed through the Tehuantepec wind gap into the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the Pacific.
This animation pics up the story over southern Mexico's Pacific coast this afternoon and evening and shows several convective bursts over land. The one at the end on the bottom left hand side is directly over Acapulco.
Acapulco has been experiencing spectacular flooding for the past five days. And it looks like they are getting some more now. [Twitter Search link for coverage >> twitter.com/search?q=%23ac…]
This animation shows the latest convective burst over the city which appears to be be too recent to account for the events seen in the tweet above. But this won't help.
And there is potentially something much worse heading #Acapulco#Mexico's way..
A third Tehuantepec Wind Gap event involving significant amounts of atmospheric water is forecast to begin in roughly 48 hours - a week after the event that ended #HurricaneJulia October 11th.
This view from the same model run shows the cause of this third #TehuantepecWindGap event - which is the same as that for the events that ended #HurricaneJuliua and #TSKarl - a northerly dry air arctic sourced blast.
In this simulation it looks as if the smaller cyclonic vortex closer to the Mexico Coast is responsible for making the larger hurricane suddenly turn right and make a landfall on the South Mexico Coast.
The result will be extreme winds and heavy rains over Mexico into Sth Texas.
What happens next in the GFS3 Simulation is possibly even worse - albeit completely dependant on the consequences of the 3rd Tehuantepec Wind Gap outcome resulting in the Pacific Hurricane turning right over Mexico - possibly over Mexico City.
And it includes a 4th #TehuantepecWindGap event - and the creation of yet another Pacific Hurricane - and flooding in Texas.
In ^^ the PWAT animation you can see the initiation of a tropical atmospheric river- a strong one - led by transit of the hurricane over Mexico.
Below is GFS Forecast for 6hrly rainfall totals from 22nd to 26th October.
Here you can see what is happening over the United States thrroughout the 16 period of this simulation forecast. From before the formation of Pacific Hurricane through to the presentation of the atmospheric river which it helps form.
And here you can see the total forecast rains expected from this over 16 days in the US. And 10 days in Mexico.
This interview with working class Uk financial markets savant Gary Stevenson - who has just published an autobiography - is seriously terrifying. He now has a @YouTube channel it seems and I’ll post a link shortly.
James O'Brien meets Gary Stevenson | LBC via @YouTube
His prognosis for the collapse of social democratic nation state finances due to the very sharp rise in income distribution inequality in the UK is horrific.
The consequences of unfettered transfers of money over decades due to neoliberal economics initially and more recently quantitative easing driven transfers of wealth from the middle class to the top 5% of the population is the cause of his concern.
It’s very hard to imagine what can be done politically to rebalance this.
Thomas Piketty’s thesis which among other things warned about all of this based on long term historical analysis of wealth inequality appears to be colliding with Western Civilisation in a manner that threatens the very foundations of that civilisation.
Gary’s YouTube channel which addresses all this is here.
Well this was actually pretty good… very little crazy right wing stuff - none in fact - some light criticism of wokeness and a consensus that Hitler was a socialist or communist dictator not a rightwing liberal fascist - mercifully no discussion of Greenland Panama or Canada
The bit at the end was actually quite nice and agreement about ending the wars in Gaza and Ukraine.
Importantly and probably deliberately there was very little to zero overt electioneering - a little bit of criticism of Weidel’s Spitzencandidat competition from Weidle but nothing extreme.
So nothing imo that could be seen as being election interference IMO - nor any reason for the DSA to be concerned or to get involved.
I didn’t even hear any particularly overt endorsement that went beyond that you might hear in passing in a podcast interview.
It ended with a discussion of mars - Elon’s favourite subject of conversation - which was quite interesting including a reference to the Hitchhikers guide to the Galaxy series and Douglas Adams.
From Weidel’s point of view though there was a lot of positive moderate exposure of her party and probably around 200k + listeners. Which may give her a bounce in the polls.
Also the final segment talking about space was quite delightful and genuine and portrayed the AFD Leader in a positive light.
And I’d say the two of them have both found a new friend.
This is an update thread on this OCCRP story on @StateDept and @USAID funding for several large investigative journalism projects which has had a lot of downstream impacts it seems. Especially in Europe,
The underlying original story about govt funding for investigative journalism projects was initially flagged by @ryangrim.
This organisation - OCCRP that not many people seemed to have been aware of - was responsible for a series of outstanding investigative journalism consortia projects including the Panama papers.
This is a leaked rough cut of the NDR (German public broadcaster north west Germany) investigation into what happened With the OCCRP story.
It was never officially published but was recently leaked publicly by Wikileaks.
With the benefit of hindsight arguably Wikileaks ought to be the international organisation that coordinates these large investigative consortia, though it’s not clear that they want to do so.
What is clear from the fallout from all of this is that the system that was in place for running these consortia is no longer fit for purpose.
This video is about the work done by the “terrorist” who drove through the Magdeburg Christmas Market tonight at high speed killing injuring around 100 people.
How does a doctor practicing as a psychiatrist go from being a women’s rights defender focussed on Assisting Islamic women to escape an oppressive culture to being a multi murderer in his adopted country.
Meet @DrTalebJawad
A very unusual terrorist.
A good starting point for those interested in getting closer to the truth about what happened tonight is to visit @DrTalebJawad ‘s Twitter profile and look at his recent messages before the account gets locked.
It is immediately apparent that this is not your normal Islamic terrorist, in fact it quickly becomes apparent from his tweets that he was likely suffering from a psychotic break or something similar before he committed the horrific act of terrorism in Magdeburg.
This incident took place in Magdeburg a city relatively near to where I am currently in Eastern Germany. It was fairly late evening. But the news exploded locally very quickly on Twitter.
And the initial speculation was of course that the terrorist was Islamic and that it was another planned terror attack.
At this point several hours later however it looks like the perpetrator was having an accrue psychological break.