The situation remains complex and unpredictable with many significant variables at play which could alter the outcome. The latest complete GFS run shows the next hurricane landfalling in Mexico 24 Oct. & remnants forming into a Gulf cyclone on 26 Oct.
The latest GFS run (incomplete) does not see the storm reforming into a tropical storm in the Gulf, but the synoptic scenario here - with this storm forming and crossing Mexico has been fairly stable for some time - as indicated in previous #KARL#TSKarl updates.
Sticking with the 18.00 GFS run here in the PWAT presentation the variables become apparent. 1. The strength of a 3rd Tehuantepec wind gap event 2. The formation and development of #roslyn 3. The strength & timing of an Arctic air blast sth ove the US.
Given these complex variables the latest GFS run understandably has a different outcome - and a much stronger impact from a southerly arctic blast.
Ominously it also shows the development of a new tropical storm off the northern Coast of South America heading into the Carribean.
Here is a 24 hour animation over Southern Mexico and the Eastern Pacific where this stituation is currently developing. Yesterday and overnight it shows spectacular convection over Southern Mexico - which is presumably causing flash flooding.
The convective storms are developing along the coastal and inland mountain ranges of Mexico. and extend up the East coast of Mexico up to the US Border.
Here is a closeup 12 hour animation of these #Mexico rain storms which shows the development so far. This extreme weather rain event is ongoing.
This is providing another variable to the complex #ExtremeWeather synoptic situation - introducing mass water vapour to the Gulf.
Here is the full 18-06 IWVT run from GFS3 which provides additional perspective on this ongoing #ExtremeWeather event. In particular revealing the simulated origin of the storm which we can see in the forecast forming over the Carribean towards the end of the 16 day period.
This storm is simulated to form in the Pacific off the coast of Panama around 22nd-24th October. This clip of part of the full GFS IWVT forecast begins on the 24th and runs till the end on November 3rd.
At this point probably distraction - but it illustrates the complexity.
Completing this long range set up picture of the evolution of this #ExtremeWeather event, here is a North America PWAT simulation from the 18.06 run for the next 16 days.
It appears this persistent pattern over the US may be weakening at long last which, accompanied by the southwards progression of the ICTZ (Equatorial Tropical Water flow) ought to eventually bring an end to this.
The overall causes of this #CentralAmerica#ExtremeWeather event are this pattern of southerly arctic blasts (originating over Canada) and an equinox (sun crossing the equator) boost of tropical water flow from the West African/Tropical Atlantic Monsoon through the Carribean.
I attended the Bonn climate talks. They were very disappointing to everyone. The elephant in the room was (of course) the U.S. decision to withdraw from the talks altogether.
Unfortunately.. perhaps intentionally in advance of the continuation of climate talks regardless of #US_Disintigration the talks were also very sparsely attended particularly by activists and NGOs. The reason for this was @elonmusk destroying @-USAID.
@elonmusk As you can see the USAID Twitter account is now dead - deleted which is an appalling act of vandalism executed by Elon and his tech-bro team of teenagers.
This article is deeply depressing. For my part at Scoop.co.nz it is clear to me that:
1. The Govt has a deliberate strategy - probably not official but nevertheless operative to destroy NZ media. 2. This is not going to change any time soon. thespinoff.co.nz/politics/02-07…
& Sadly from what I discerned last year the @nzlabour opposition is both apathetic and indifferent to the plight of media. Also the @NZGreens. And have always been so for as long as I can remember.
This is extremely disappointing
@nzlabour @NZGreens I will be returning to NZ in August to ensure continues to function in these very difficult times for NZ media. We have faced numerous big challenges recently and thank our supporters and readers for their support.Scoop.co.nz
Ok so this is a bit weird, but in a kinda chill way so do bare with me and and I will be happy to answer questions afterwards. It’s about a castle on a virtual island in a massive online role playing game called Evony and it involves a possible but speculative discussion about @elonmusk and @X.
All will be revealed but first a picture or four actually from the game. More will come.
Ok. So here’s what I think is going on in a nutshell. I think elonmusk has invested in a MMORPG: a “Massive Multimedia Online Role Playing Game” which is a bit of a mouthful, called EVONY.
I liked its Twitter ads and finally clicked. It’s huge. Someone else can do the business story here which I am sure is interesting too.
But the this bit is weird.
The mysterious knight on the red horse arrived this morning beside my castle and he had some treasure.
I hadn’t a clue who it was so I grabbed the treasure and tried to kill the horse and rider as that’s what you do. But we got smashed badly.
This interview with working class Uk financial markets savant Gary Stevenson - who has just published an autobiography - is seriously terrifying. He now has a @YouTube channel it seems and I’ll post a link shortly.
James O'Brien meets Gary Stevenson | LBC via @YouTube
His prognosis for the collapse of social democratic nation state finances due to the very sharp rise in income distribution inequality in the UK is horrific.
The consequences of unfettered transfers of money over decades due to neoliberal economics initially and more recently quantitative easing driven transfers of wealth from the middle class to the top 5% of the population is the cause of his concern.
It’s very hard to imagine what can be done politically to rebalance this.
Thomas Piketty’s thesis which among other things warned about all of this based on long term historical analysis of wealth inequality appears to be colliding with Western Civilisation in a manner that threatens the very foundations of that civilisation.
Gary’s YouTube channel which addresses all this is here.
Well this was actually pretty good… very little crazy right wing stuff - none in fact - some light criticism of wokeness and a consensus that Hitler was a socialist or communist dictator not a rightwing liberal fascist - mercifully no discussion of Greenland Panama or Canada
The bit at the end was actually quite nice and agreement about ending the wars in Gaza and Ukraine.
Importantly and probably deliberately there was very little to zero overt electioneering - a little bit of criticism of Weidel’s Spitzencandidat competition from Weidle but nothing extreme.
So nothing imo that could be seen as being election interference IMO - nor any reason for the DSA to be concerned or to get involved.
I didn’t even hear any particularly overt endorsement that went beyond that you might hear in passing in a podcast interview.
It ended with a discussion of mars - Elon’s favourite subject of conversation - which was quite interesting including a reference to the Hitchhikers guide to the Galaxy series and Douglas Adams.
From Weidel’s point of view though there was a lot of positive moderate exposure of her party and probably around 200k + listeners. Which may give her a bounce in the polls.
Also the final segment talking about space was quite delightful and genuine and portrayed the AFD Leader in a positive light.
And I’d say the two of them have both found a new friend.