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QF Research Profile picture
@ResearchQf
Oct 18, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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1) BofA Oct Global Fund Manager Survey released today.

Most charts are saying similar things and are at/near '08 extremes. But here's a sample.

Net fund managers % saying overweight cash and underweight equities beyond peak '08 levels.

$SPY $NDX $TLT $GLD #Commodities
2) Close to record levels of investors expect a weaker economy next 12M.

#Inflation expectations at Dec '08 level.
3) Lowest % on record saying taking higher than normal risk.

Lowest % saying global profits will improve.
4) Long $DXY is considered the most crowded trade. Yet record % believe $USD is overvalued.
5) Record low for FMS Financial Market Stability Risk Indicator.

Etc etc you get the idea.

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More from @ResearchQf

QF Research Profile picture
May 14
1) Maybe $MP did bottom. May buy more if close at this level.

One of many examples with potentially huge secular story. And is cyclicality reversing to tailwind?

Cyclical. Rare earth prices still edging up from Mar lows after -70% from '22 high (EVs renewables industrial etc).
Image
2) Now the interesting part. There's a chance MP is a robotic+ beneficiary.

What's Neodymium used for? Many applications e.g. Nd:YAG pump lasers. Nd has 1064 nm transition in Yttrium crystal.

More importantly Nd magnets are strongest rare earth magnets. Super important for ... Image
3) well, critical electromechanical tech, including EVs, turbines but now coming AI robots and military hardware (e.g. actuators as mentioned earlier).

"Humanoid robots accelerated into reality with AI are likely to utilize multiple per unit magnetic ...
Read 4 tweets
QF Research Profile picture
May 11
1) $AAPL has closed in on an agreement with @OpenAI to use the startup's technology on the iPhone, part of a broader push to bring AI features to its devices (BN).

Via @theinformation: OpenAI sees assistants with voice and visual capabilities as potentially transformative as ...
Image
2) the smartphone.

"The technology is another step in @sama's quest to ultimately develop a highly responsive AI akin to the virtual assistant in the film "Her," and enable existing voice assistants like Apple's Siri to be more useful."

OpenAI may preview upgraded AI "at an ... Image
3) "event as soon as Monday, which would help it get ahead of a slew of AI announcements from its rival $GOOGL later in the week, one of the people said."

Exponential again. What will gen 2 (or 5) agents do?

Number of other products under development ...
Read 5 tweets
QF Research Profile picture
Jan 25, 2023
1) $324M of $3.9B of $TSLA OI was FSD recognition.

Most didn't model. +1.5% GM impact. And there goes EPS beat vs "company compiled" consensus.

Inventory $12.8B vs $10.3B Q3 and $5.8B Q4 '21. Big jump Q/Q and huge jump Y/Y in days.

Many ...

$SPY $QQQ $TLT $GLD #Commodities
2) more details ... forward comments usually don't matter much. Especially if Elon says bullish things (just calibrate his past comments).

If he concedes any downside metrics? Pay attention.

Independent analysis with incoming data by far most relevant.
3) Non-GAAP EPS $1.19 (includes FSD) vs "company compiled" cons $1.10 and Bberg cons $1.12.

Ex-FSD just meets company compiled and misses Bloomberg.

Taxes only $276M so several ¢. Ex-lower taxes misses both.

Not too important.

Where do margins and volumes meet going forward?
Read 5 tweets
QF Research Profile picture
Jan 25, 2023
1) Total global ETF holdings of #gold has gone sideways despite gold +19% since early Nov.

System akin to compressed spring. Less pressure?
Spring bounces.

Δ largely $GLD driven. What if US investors traders actually buy?

1 more chart today.

$SPY $QQQ $TLT $GDX #Commodities
2) Cost of $SLV puts vs calls (3M 25 delta) 10D MA not budging despite #silver +33% in several M.

Incredible (to me). And never happened in history of this data.

Whenever silver rose as much since '15 secular low, cost of calls shifted ~8-10 (implied ...
3) vol) points higher than cost of puts.

Even smaller rallies (Mar '16 Apr '20 Nov '21 etc) produced a big shift of > 4 points wrt cost of calls vs puts.

So this one time we (options traders) refuse to fall for it and pay up for calls.

Anyways physical analogies are not ...
Read 5 tweets
QF Research Profile picture
Jan 24, 2023
1) Largest day of $SLV inflows (+20M oz) by far since #silver squeeze!

Positioning was more bearish despite #gold +19% #silver +31% in few months.

Little buying power was used. If anything there was large selling vs price reference points ...

$SPY $QQQ $TLT $GLD #Commodities
2) over last few Y, as well as variety of unusual technical readings that just don't occur after significant rallies.

"Yes there WILL be pullbacks, but I've mumbled could be shorter and shallower than one might usually expect."

Data implies unusually ...
3) high number of sidelined bulls waiting for that correction that might not come. Or happen from much higher levels. This matched broad sentiment that many wanted/expected a correction.

SLV flow today supportive of data. Could barely wait a few hours and few % to buy.

Will ...
Read 7 tweets
QF Research Profile picture
Jan 23, 2023
1) Leading economic indicators down 10M in a row and -7.4% Y/Y.

In or entering recession (Mar '01) every time since '60.

"Cliché but true - every cycle is different. A few bad job prints would seal the deal."

"This time is different" often ...

$SPY $QQQ $TLT $GLD #Commodities Image
2) dangerous but we're prob not in recession now or entering within a M(?).

Consider LEI components. Shown is 6M change.

Soft component (consumer expectation) largest negative contribution. Employment component almost flat.

I've been watching for sudden weakness in high ... Image
3) frequency economic data since last summer.

While some data weakened, if I were told last summer that jobless claims would be near lows and there wasn't a big downside NFP next 6M, I would've said very unlikely.

Still "a few bad job prints would seal the deal?" I think yes.
Read 4 tweets

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