Thread by @Napalm_1_

Utility:Dear producer,could you restart your production to sell us your #uranium at 50USD/lb so that we can extend our operations
Producer:I need 75+USD/lb to make a profit, labour &material cost went up 15%
Utility:Please,it’s urgent.
Producer:NO,this isn’t charity!
-> $U.UN 🚀

https://twitter.com/808sandu3o8/status/1582560965081460736

Can $URG $UEC $UUUU US assets of $CCJ,… make profit if they sell #uranium at 50USD/lb? NO
Will they restart those prod for 55USD/lb? NO
URG has 1st supply contract 200,000lb/y starting 2H2023,but has >300,000lb inventory => can postpone prod start.
Same for UUUU, UEC,…
(2/n)

$UUUU has ~120,000lb #uranium prod from Monazite Sand process into RE Carbonate, & has >750,000lb U3O8 inventory=> can postpone prod start
$UEC has ~2Mlbs U3O8 inventory today from 5Mlbs bought (~3Mlbs delivered to UEC between today & 2026)=> can postpone prod start
(3/n)
$U.UN

& if #uranium remains ~50USD/lb in 2H2022 $URG $UEC $UUUU could honor 1st deliveries to utilities in 2024 by buying U3O8 from Olympic Dam (-> less for spotmarket) or $PDN (->less for PDN contracts to utilities) for delivery in 2024 &postpone their own restart further
(4/n)
$U.UN

Conclusion:if #uranium price doesn’t go significantly⬆️ than 50USD/lb SOON, than many small producers with mines in care-and-maintenance will NOT restart production, even if they already have sale contracts with utilities.
(5/n)

Instead those producers will buy #uranium in spot to sell to their customers,like $PEN
Peninsula has U3O8 supply to them from another producer X at the moment.But this means that producer X has less U3O8 to sell to other customers
=>small U3O8 producers become buyers
$U.UN
(6/n)