Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #commodities

Most recents (24)

China's premier Li Keqiang: China's economy is facing new downward pressure. China to make cross-cyclical adjustments and formulate a new combination of tax and fee reduction policies.
#China $CNY
China's premier Li Keqiang: China to crack down on monopoly, unfair competition, hoarding, and price gouging.
#China $CNY #commodities
China's vice premier Han Zheng urges ensuring energy supply, restoring power generation capacity to normal ASAP.
#China #coal #energycrunch
Read 4 tweets
The most-traded #ironore contract fell below 600 yuan per ton, down 5.65%, for the first time since May 2020.
SGX #ironore index futures due December fells more than 3%.
#China #future Image
The most-traded #ironore contract extended its decline to 8.04% at 577.5 yuan/ton. Image
The most-traded #ironore contract in #China dives to the limit down.
SGX #ironore future plunges 7%.
Iron ore stockpiles in 7 major ports from Australia and Brazil recorded 12.92 mln tons from Oct.25-31, rosed by 0.33 mln tons w/w, slightly above 2021 average, data shows. Image
Read 5 tweets
China's most-traded thermal coal futures open down 4.6% in night session on increasing coal stocks and improving supply and demand conditions.
#Commodities #China #coal #coke
China's most active coking coal futures, coke futures fall about 2.4%.
#Commodities #China #coal #coke
Shanghai INE's crude oil futures rise 1.75%, low sulfur fuel oil futures up 1.5% as global benchmarks rally. DCE's LPG futures rise more than 3.2%.
#OOTT #Shanghai #China
Read 4 tweets
Cycle emotional considerations:

Bottom: actually the best point for maximum greed, often though the point of maximum fear (point of maximum loss)

Top: actually the best point for maximum fear, often though the point of maximum greed (the point of maximum gain)

In sink?
We had our first attack for discussing the concept that our fear gage is gaining momentum, the attack is a further contrarian indicator that we are on the correct track. Denial is a response most have to their greed thesis being questioned, 90% don't handle well this reality.
Wishing and hoping are not rational mechanisms for wealth building.

Understanding the risk one is taking at a given point of the cycle allows one to control and manage the wealth building process.

How many of you have compounded your wealth at 25% pa + over the last 10yrs?
Read 5 tweets
JUST IN:
China commodities jump in night session as global benchmarks surge, #zinc futures rise more than 7%, thermal #coal futures up 5%, #coke futures, #cotton futures up 4%, aluminum futures up 3%.
#China #commodities #futures
#China's most active #zinc futures hit limit up shortly after beginning of night trading session, last up 7.99%.
China's most-traded #nickel futures, #cotton yarn futures open up more than 2%.
Read 4 tweets
#China's most traded thermal #coal futures up 5%, coking coal futures up 3.96%, #coke futures up 4.11% in the Friday morning.
#China #commodities #futures
Most active #manganese-silicon futures and #ferrosilicon futures in China Zhengzhou up 3.97% and 2.44% respectively in early trade.
#China #futures #Commodities #Ferro
@nid_rockz
Most traded Shanghai #pulp futures contract falls 5.14% in early trade.
#China #commodities #futures
Read 6 tweets
Most active #manganese-silicon futures and #ferrosilicon futures in China Zhengzhou slump 5% and 5.34% respectively in early trade.
#China #futures #Commodities
@nid_rockz ImageImage
China's most traded #PVC (polyvinyl chloride) futures contract hit the limit down at open.
#China #futures #Commodities Image
Thermal #coal futures in Zhengzhou, China, open 1.15% lower on Thursday, off Wednesday's record high, the authority said to boost 220 million tons of additional coal capacity per year.
Coking coal futures down about 4% and coke futures down 3% in Dalian
ImageImageImage
Read 4 tweets
📈Hedge de #commodities usando posições sintéticas

Posições sintéticas de proteção, combinam futuros e opções, replicando uma operação em futuros ou opções. Assim, se alguém compra uma CALL e vende uma PUT, estará fazendo uma posição similar a uma compra de contrato futuro...
(muito usado quando você está exposto em um futuros e o contrato trava no limite diário; está posição limita sua perda). Diz-se então, que é uma operação sintética comprada em futuros
Posições sintéticas podem, também, ser tomadas como arbitragem, no intuito de tirar proveito de eventual distorção no mercado de futuros em relação ao mercado de opções, ou vice-versa. A compreensão do funcionamento das posições sintéticas é importante para o trader e aumenta o
Read 9 tweets
#China Jan -Sept. imports rise 22.6% y/y and Jan.-Sept. exports +22.7% y/y in yuan terms.
#trade #import #export #economy 🇨🇳
China's General Customs' Jan-Sept Import Data: (YoY)
#crude oil imports fall 6.8% y/y to 387 mln tonnes;
#natgas imports rise 22. 2% y/y to 89.85 mln tonnes;
#ironore imports fall 3% y/y to 842 mln tonnes;
#copper imports 4.02 mln tonnes, down 19.5% y/y.
#OOTT #trade #import🇨🇳 🇺🇸
In the first three quarters of this year, #China's #exports reached 15.55 trillion yuan, up 22.7% y/y and #imports reached 12.78 trillion yuan, up 22.6% y/y.

Foreign trade imports and exports have achieved positive year-on-year growth for five consecutive quarters.
#commodities
Read 4 tweets
#China's most active thermal #coal up 8.15%, coking coal up 3.66%, #coke up 4.12% in the Wednesday morning.
#China #commodities #futures ImageImage
Most-active Shanghai steel #rebar contract falls 3% in early trade.
#China #commodities #futures Image
#Manganese-silicon futures drops about 1.70%;
#Ferrosilicon futures down 0.39% on Wednesday.
#China #commodities #futures
@nid_rockz ImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
⚡️Energia: O Rally Continua

As #commodities energéticas estavam sob cerco durante o auge do impacto da pandemia, em todos os mercados. Em abril de 2020, o #carvão Rotterdam caiu para uma baixa de $38,45/t. O #crudeoil foi ainda pior, com o contrato spot operando a (-)$40,2...
Os futuros do #brent caíram para o valor mais baixo desde século, a $ 16,00 por barril. Enquanto isso, o #NaturalGas despencou para ao menor nível em 25 anos, a $1,44 MMbtu. Os combustíveis fósseis foram vítimas do desaparecimento da demanda, à medida que o vírus se espalhava..
A cura para os preços baixos das #Commodities são sempre os preços baixos, à medida que os produtores reduzem a produção, os estoques diminuem e os preços aumentam. Uma mudança dramática na política de energia dos EUA em 2021, sob a gestão Biden, alimentou a ascensão dos...
Read 7 tweets
Buona parte delle risorse di cui necessita l’industria della #transizioneenergetica è situata in paesi che presentano un elevato #ResourceNationalismIndex (RNI)

un fenomeno che rischia di far deragliare il treno della transizione

di @gbrussato

1/11
rivistaenergia.it/2021/10/cresce… Image
elaborato da @MaplecroftRisk, il Resource Nationalism Index 2021 certifica come 66 paesi su 198 nell’indice, ovvero il 33%, hanno rafforzato la presa sulla ricchezza delle risorse dal 2017.

2/
rivistaenergia.it/2021/10/cresce… Image
Con impennata #commodities e difficoltà della #pandemia aumenta il nazionalismo delle risorse

la tendenza dei governi ad affermare il controllo sulle risorse per accrescere le entrate statali e migliorare (magari) l’assistenza sociosanitaria

3/
rivistaenergia.it/2021/10/cresce…
Read 11 tweets
1) "Buy the dip (ex high-multiple tech), markets would be fine with $130 #oil and 250bp yields, #coal: canary in a coal mine?" Marko Kolanovic (JPM)

- adjusting for inflation etc. we think even with oil at $130 or $150 equity markets and ...

$SPY $QQQ $TLT $GDX #Commodities Image
2) - we think markets can absorb higher rates, and we don’t expect a broad market selloff unless yields were to rise above 250-300 bps (US 10y), which we don’t foresee in the near term

Who am I do comment but bursting of the dotcom bubble was preceded by 6.8% 10Y, GFC was ... Image
3) preceded by 5.3%, and 3.2% caused a short but sharp bear market Q4 '18 (Powell panicked in just a few months).

Given leverage, duration, sensitivity to equities and populism today vs even a few years ago, not sure the box within which the Fed is "trapped" is as big as 2.5%.
Read 3 tweets
1) % of $XAU stocks > their 200D MAs has been 0% 10D in a row (went to 3% for 2D after this tweet). $GDX $GDXJ

So 10D MA of % of XAU stocks > 200D MA is also 0%.

Here are the days since '02 when this first occurred ...

$SPY $QQQ $TLT $GLD #Commodities
2) (or came very very close).

9/17/18 (0% 10D MA)
8/5/15 (1%)
11/10/14 (0%)
3/5/13 (0%)
5/16/12 (0%)
10/29/08 (0%)
5/24/05 (2%)
5/18/04 (0%)

Every date not far from a major IT or LT low with that BIG exception in '13 (see posts about '13 last 6M).

10D stayed at 0% in '13 ...
3) for 5M and XAU fell 36% more before an IT low.

Besides '13 the low was usually a few days before these dates.

Different info in 10D charts. Fidelity is lost. E.g. Mar '20 doesn't show as selloff was so sharp.

Doesn't hurt GDXJ up > 1% while GLD down > 0.4% today. That's ...
Read 8 tweets
Comecei a trabalhar com #Commodities em fevereiro de 2000; vivi na pele o caos do superciclo chinês, quando não conseguíamos atender a absurda demanda vinda da Ásia; neste período as cotações nas bolsas decolaram, #petroleo acima de $145, #soja 1800 c/bu, #milho 850 c/bu..
#naturalgas acima de 15000 $/btu e, não foram só as cotações na bolsa que subiram, mas os basis do mercado físico também decolaram; não conseguíamos entender como que a 🇨🇳 conseguia compra os produtos, com o custo de reposição absurdamente alta e margens incrivelmente negativas
O frete marítimo foi uma loucura, não havia oferta de navios, o combustível absurdamente alto; neste período fiz minhas primeiras visitas aos navios e os capitães nos alertavam que a situação era insustentável, pois o mundo estava avançado a base de crédito avalancado
Read 7 tweets
1/ #COMMODITIES will explode into 2022!

Grinding slowly higher every month, then all at once.

61% of the GSCI is Energy. Energy Crisis will be severe!

We are just getting started, buckle up!

I will update his chart EVERY MONTH for my twitter followers!
2/ Shorter timeframe - the trend will accelerate in Q4 2021!

There is a dramatic rally on the horizon, an epic generational boom with currencies collapsing and commodities exploding higher!
3/ We also got the highest weekly close this week in the #ReutersCRB Index vs. SPX since January 2020!

We are breaking out guys, BIG inflation is coming, probably #Hyperinflation!

This is also the catalyst for precious metals wave 5 (Final wave in this bullmarket).
Read 3 tweets
. @michael_saylor on unregistered securities:

"It is a security. You are violating securities law, the law is black and white. The only people who think it's not a security are the people who don't know the law."
"If you look at everybody in the #crypto space outside of #bitcoin I think most of them have never taken a company public, they don't have general counsels, they don't understand securities laws at it stands."
"I can't go... It would be inappropriate, unethical and illegal for me to go and give a million shares of $MSTR to a quarterback, and then have him stand up and say " $MSTR Coin is the future" on Twitter. The whole point of securities laws is I have to disclose that via an 8-K."
Read 19 tweets
#China's most active manganese-silicon futures contract and ferrosilicon futures contract in Zhengzhou open 8% higher and hit the limit-up.
#Ferro #silicon
Iron ore futures in Dalian drop 3%, still on the downtrend.
Rubber and asphalt also drop 2.7%.
Live hogs down 4.5%.
#Iron #ironore #steel
Coke and coking #coal futures in Dalian DCE extend gain to 4%, thermal coal in CZCE gains 6.13%.
The coal shortage problem in China is yet to be solved.

#Tin futures in Shanghai up 3%.
Read 9 tweets
The Fed can't print oil, natural gas, coal, uranium, copper, cobalt, nickel, tin, ships, containers -- or food. #commodities #fintwit @Convertbond @RaoulGMI @HFI_Research @hkuppy @JKempEnergy @chigrl @acosgrove003
Exhibit B: The Fed can’t print ships… Great info @AllVentured
Read 4 tweets
Comparativo dos valores de #fretes para cargas a granel Santos x China e Golfo x China. Em 1 ano, as taxas triplicaram de preço; a #soja teve alta de 🧵 Image
A soja teve alta de 41%, saindo de 900 c/bu para 1275 c/bu…🧵 Image
Na #China, o leitão vivo acumula queda desde a inauguração do contrato em janeiro

Este é só um dia fatos que mostra o porquê o país asiático está reduzindo suas compras, usando estoques estratégicos tentando, ao máximo, reduzir os preços das #commodities Image
Read 5 tweets
#Commodities 🌽🛢️

🔹Para entender os fundamentos reais de um mercado (oferta e demanda), tudo o que precisamos fazer é olhar seus spreads futuros
🔹Isso permite que aqueles que desejam acompanhar seriamente os mercados se concentrem no que realmente está acontecendo

🧵
🔹Muitas vezes, isso refuta a frase de efeito de “oferta escassa” que está sendo usada em tantos mercados atualmente

Você se lembra dos dias em que os analistas usavam a frase “realização de lucros em fundos de commodities” para explicar cada movimento do mercado?
Bem, há algo novo na indústria agora para aqueles que gostam de inventar razões "por que" todos os dias, em vez de apenas olhar para o que aconteceu: "X-commodity tem uma situação de abastecimento insuficiente."
Read 10 tweets
China's Politburo held a meeting to analyze the current economic situation and economic work, presided over by General Secretary Xi Jinping.
#China #Economy
#China says economic recovery is not solid yet.
China to improve overseas listing supervision system.
#China #Didi
Read 10 tweets
Coking coal futures rise more than 4% in Dalian, while stainless steel and hot-rolled coil contracts in Shanghai up 2.5%.
#China #futures #steel #coal
China's most-traded iron ore futures fall over 3.5% in the morning trade.
#China #ironore #commodities #futures
Iron ore futures extend loss to 5%, back to 1066 yuan per ton, the lowest since May 31.
The steel capacity limitation set by the industrial department still has negative impacts on the iron ore demand.
#Iron #Ironore #steel
Read 8 tweets

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