Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #commodities

Most recents (24)

#China stocks roar on, with #CSI300 up ~20% in little more than a week as (official) #margin debt climbs Y150bln to touch Y1.3 trillion - levels only seen in the peak months of 2015's madness.
Worth noting a rejection here could mean the Jan'19 formation is complete.
As the money floods into #China #equities, #bonds bear the brunt. Wealth Managers are the MOMO traders de jour "Our company's mixed products can have 60% allocations to #stock, but now we're at 70-80%. This is a normal phenomenon [sic]," said one.

This latest burst has also spared #CNY the ignominy of setting a new 12-year high above 7.18, instead pushing it briefly back through the talismanic 7.00 parity. Ergo, either locals are repatriating to get in on the action or Johnny Foreigner is being sucked into the move.
Read 14 tweets
Reliance Jio is in "Technology Commodity Market". Design ripoff by JioMeet & JioChat affirms this underlying message in the market. Technology as a commodity is different from (1)(#JioMeet #JioChat #commodity #Commodities #RelianceJio #Jio #UX #Design #Market) ImageImage
Software as a commodity. White-label apps, framework & platform were in the market since a long time that are the example of Software as a commodity. Commodity trading is one of the oldest practice. Traditional companies environment are well equipped with (2)(#trading)
commodity legalities, so as India Trade & Legal Ecosystem. Reliance Jio have turn the table in their favor from bureaucracy, regulatory & legal perspective. It could also be possible that (3)(#trade #legal #bureaucracy #regulatory)
Read 32 tweets
1/Thanks very much to my old friend @steve_sedgwick @SquawkBoxEurope for the chat this morning
2/We looked at #Growth v #Value, the #US v ROW, we touched on #bonds and borrowing, #money supply, #inflation, #lockdown, #commodities & #gold - all in under 10 mins!
3/If that was all a bit rushed, here follow the notes I sent to accompany our chat:-

#macro, #markets
Read 12 tweets
A short coverage of CFD trading markets and how it all began. How Contracts For Difference managed to become so popular and now available in the most of the countries for retail traders and investors?
#cfds #investing #trading #cfdtrading…
(it is a thread) Image
As most would guess, CFD trading started in the City of London in the early 1990's as a type of margined equity swaps. At first, they were only available to institutional traders and investors such as hedge funds.
Leverage and no UK stamp duty made it happen.
Late 1990's and Contracts For Difference were finally introduced to the retail traders, first in the UK and in early 2000's to all retail traders around the world.
Once again the leverage played a vital role in growing popularity.
#Leverage #CFD…
Read 5 tweets
Boom, Got Silver? Historic move...

Thank You #ECB #Fed #BOJ #PBOC #BOE
Silver > Gold, the beating continues, or you could say, playing “catch up.”

Silver, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, ....
Read 4 tweets
World Economic Forum: "Lockdown is the world's biggest #psychological #experiment - & we will pay the price"

Apr 9 2020 "With some 2.6 billion people around the world in some kind of #lockdown, we are conducting arguably the largest psychological experiment ever"

"Unfortunately, we already have a good idea of its results. In late Feb 2020, right before EU countries mandated various forms of lockdowns, The Lancet published a review of 24 studies documenting the #psychological impact of quarantine."

"The findings offer a glimpse of what is brewing in hundreds of millions of households around the world...

people who are #quarantined are very likely to develop a wide range of symptoms of #psychological #stress and #disorder..."

Read 14 tweets
@AP No one is facing up to the scale of the demand crash.

We normally produce 80-million+ barrels a day, and half the world (the rich half, mostly) is under lockdown.

Do we need 3/4 of the oil we did? 1/2? 1/4?

20-million+, 40-million+ or 60-million+ barrels/day less?
@AP Does the lockdown end in several months?

A year or more from now, when we (hopefully) have a vaccine?

How much will our consumption habits have changed by then?

How much renewable power will have been installed?

How many vehicles will be hybrid or electric?
@AP How long will it take to recover from what is effectively a depression?

Then look at the underlying math for oil coming out of this era, which is even worse.
Read 47 tweets
#Gold is by end of the day and inflation gauge. See strong correlation below. Now - consider what happens to inflation as #Oil and #Commodities plummet! Then think - what may happen to #Gold... yes?!
an inflation gauge
Another perspective! The sharp decline in inflation is bad news for #Gold and #Silver
Read 4 tweets
No doubt in my mind, that current rally in #SP500 and #equities is a counter-trend move - and that we will soon see a major deflationary CRASH. I have updated my SP500 outlook - some changes! Stay tuned for #HZupdates this afternoon. First - 88 km bike ride to Helsingør 👍
Back - a little tired - but feeling good! 🚴💪 Stay tuned for some #HZupdates - my perspectives on markets.
#Deflation phase is not over and done. #CRB tells this story. The decline from w4 top must have 5 waves and throw-over. We still need last leg before SECULAR BOTTOM.
Read 12 tweets
Good morning! 😀Fed is all in (again!!) - and this time there is a great confidence among traders (again!!) that Fed can has stopped deflation and supplied enough liquidity to the system. But is that really the case? Stay tuned for my perspectives #HZupdates
Let me start an nontraditional way - with a zoom in. This is #SP500 1 hour chart. I look for corrections and main directional moves. This is a correctional move - and it may have finalized! So - the main wave will soon set in again. Now - lets zoom out #HZupdates
The zoom in was of wave 4. It is correctional in nature - and will hence be 100% (or way more) surpassed. Notice - it managed to retrace to 50% Fib. I think we are really close to the next strong decline. EW gives us ~1800 for bottom of wave A = the illiquid deflationary period
Read 17 tweets
#Deflation unfolding - but as in all moves - we will always see counter-moves or corrections. Last week was such a correction. We must not drop our guard! The economic situation is dire and we are not through the illiquid phase. Major developments ahead! Stay tuned for #HZupdates
It is all about #USD. Last week was a retracement in the new strong spike for #DXY = wave ii (blue). Within days, DXY will likely start strong rally higher - reaching min. 109 within weeks. End target will be reached later this year ~122 #HZupdates
The rally in #DXY is caused by extreme USD shortage. #EURUSD will feel the strength. In fact, it seems to me, that we are about to see a very strong decline in EURUSD within days/weeks to ~0.97-0.98 before a sideways bounce. LT-target remains the same: ~0.85 to be reached this yr
Read 20 tweets
Dear all. #Deflation is here as forecasted. #Oil and #Commodities etc. are declining rapidly towards targets I have put up here in #HZupdates. We are still to see the major fall-outs. The situation is dire! CBs are fully committed to sacrifice the currencies to save the economy!
#Oil has reach the target of ~20 USD. But - I don't think we have seen the bottom yet! Why? Technical. I think we will see a triangle forming as wave iv - before Oil plunges towards its final target ~10 USD. Deflation not done despite massive CB and fiscal intervention! Image
#CRB has also reached the target area. Still, I expect further lows - following some sideways consolidation. Throw-over is to be expected for a Ending Diagonal. The significance of the bottom cannot be over-emphasized. This is a SECULAR BOTTOM - and the final low for inflation! Image
Read 20 tweets
"Something is Breaking!" and we are going to see decades worth of developments in the span of few weeks or months. #Coronavirus has been the trigger of the #Deflation, I have been expecting for so long. It is now here! Stay tuned for #HZupdates to get my view on markets
"Something is Breaking" has been taken from…. We are observing an extreme USD Shortage developing fast and it is going to cause a wild #DXY rally the coming weeks & months. Chart of FRA/OIS provides overview of the severity of the developing USD shortage
My #DXY model supports this macro outlook exactly. Correction from late 2019 has concluded and DXY will now explode higher in 5 impulsive waves higher to target ~111. I expect this move to reach target ~Mid-2020. The consequences of a strong DXY will be wide-spread. #Deflation
Read 15 tweets
Another great discussion initiated by @lex_node based on a valuable piece on @coindesk written by @Frances_Coppola. As with many threads on Twitter, the tone quickly gets ... acerbic but it is a useful starting point to make a couple of important observations in both directions.
2/ As comments in the thread make clear, Coppola is focusing on “tokenizing” fungible and tangible assets. Her (spot on) point is that it is absurd to think that “blockchain“ can fix the trust issue when it comes to tangible IRL assets. However, I want to get to a deeper point.
3/ I spend quite a lot of time debating what is, and what is not a “security“. However, one thing is clear: in almost all cases, when you create a financial instrument backed by a pool of physical assets, under US law you have created a security.
Read 17 tweets
Good morning! Let's have an update on markets as it has now become very clear, that we are to see the #Deflation unfolding, which I have mentioned here for a long time. Why hasn't it really hurt yet - and what to expect? Stay tuned for some #HZupdates
I have shown my #Oil chart for a long time with Ending Diagonal. Since talks of oil >100USD - and during spikes in oil due to attacks in ME. All noise!! Structures drive price - and we are en route towards <20USD - perhaps as low as ~10USD for Oil. #Deflation unfolding!
I have shown #Deflation in #CRB chart. Broken lower trendline and now heading towards much lower levels to be reached this year! It will be a SECULAR BOTTOM - hence this is from where #STAGLFLATION will develop, as economy continues to plummet and prices begin to rise #HZupdates
Read 23 tweets
The #everythingbubble is in it’s first stage of popping. We expect sharp monetary and fiscal reactions to a slowing economy and eventually an overdose which brings inflation and finally the bursting of the debt bubble in a second stage:

A short thread.
In our @IGWTreport s we have been writing a lot about the #everythingbubble and various pins which may prick them. It seems, as if the #bubble finally found it’s needle last week.

Graph from IGWT Report 2017.
Last week’s market reaction priced in a highly deflationary scenario, which - all things being equal - seems quite rational as economic growth and velocity of money is plunging.
Read 7 tweets
#Deflation phase has started. Stocks will plummet in 5 waves down to ~1800 in #SP500. Wave 2 and 4 will be corrections. We have break of 200SMA and trendline from early 2019. I think we see a backtest of these (yellow area?). But - in general trend is down - and fast!
#USD #DXY is about to set off on a major move higher. The current correction is a wave 2 (blue) and hence next wave will take us to min. 103 - but more likely 106-107 in an impulsive move. Do not stand in front of the USD train coming months!
#EURUSD kissing 50SMA and pot. also 200SMA "Goodbye" - before turning down hard. Next wave will take down to - and likely below bottom from early 2017 - only for a short consolidation before EUR crash continues. LT-target remains ~0.85
Read 14 tweets
#MetaphysicsOfQuality iⁿtrade:

• Fixed #RiskManagement is Percentage #StopLoss.
• Such a StopLoss is -100% of the initial MarginLevel Percentage.
• So #netting may appear at -50% of MarginLevel Percentage.
• Any #LEVERAGE just offers #DrawDown
kind of limited LOSS.
• A #lever on #fulcrum is
better than leverage!
• My #BreadthScreener™ is
• The #BreadthScreener™ is a #non_forecasting,
#trading #system
#ConstantRisk #FixedRisk #Management SURVIVES!
• Since #practice precedes #theory,
#RiskManagement precedes #trading setups;
• Since theory doesn't make difference between theory & practice,
— Setups' forecasting don't forecast fail;
• Since practice makes the difference,
#FixedRisk precedes #TradingStrategy setups
Read 15 tweets
Good morning! #Equities continue to defy gravity. This has more to do with the insane monetary environment CBs have created. Macro economic reality says something completely different. The division (=the bubble) will come to haunt us all. Please stay tuned for #HZupdates
Why is it, that some analysts try to explain away the obvious? We have a major bubble in ...well almost all assets. #Schiller PE for #SP500 tells us, that the bubble is at 1929-level. Could it grow bigger? Sure!! But that does not make it a non-bubble #HZupdates
Amount of neg. yielding debt has skyrocketed. Remember, this is discount factor. If discount factor is closing in on 0 (or goes neg.) then value of any asset is going to infinity. But that has NOTHING to do with true value of any asset. This is "Bubble food"! #HZupdates
Read 23 tweets
Hey all! Attention if you are up for an update on my perspective on markets. Deflation and massive moves ahead! Stay tuned #HZupdates
Let's start with #CRB, which created a nice shooting star on weekly chart, and leaving gap open below. Wave "e" often overshoots trend-line only to turn hard the opposite direction. The likely coming decline in #CRB is deflationary #HZupdates
This week we had an #Oil crisis according to some analysts. It played out on Monday😄Like #CRB, #Oil is consolidating in a sideway-consolidation (wave B) before a strong move lower. Target in Ending Diagonal remains <20USD. This will be secular bottom. First #deflation #HZupdates
Read 14 tweets
@business .@business Very useful for Russia, Iran and the Saudi's Aramco IPO.

But just pointing out we could dump algae in biodigesters, produce unlimited natural gas & recycle the waste on 6/23/14 preceded oil prices peaking 6/24/14 & plummeting by 75%.
@business .@business To sum up:
Algae rotting in biodigesters can make all the methane (natural gas) that you need.

Conventional GTL (gas-to-liquid) technology converts NG to oil at $25/barrel *without* pricing in de facto free energy or feedstocks.…
@business .@business A biodigester is a covered trench lined with block, w/a slurry of waste & water decomposing inside. Not exactly the most difficulty engineering feat if you have the lined hole and a sheet of plastic.
Read 40 tweets
Good morning!😀Trust you are well and enjoying this Saturday morning. Deflation is developing in economy. Signs are very clear. Black swan will appear at some point. Stay tuned for a heads-up on my perspectives on market #HZupdates
#Copper sets the direction for real economy. My EW-model for Copper sets target A or more likely B to be reached some time in late 2021 or early 2022. Copper = Real economy. This is a pot. timeline for the total duration of the coming crisis (deflation & stagflation) #HZupdates
Zooming in on #Copper, we have seen the expected development this week. Break has been confirmed by small retest and acceleration. I think we will see further downside develop soon - but cannot rule out a pot. 2nd retest. The outlook for Copper is deflationary #HZupdates
Read 12 tweets
Good morning! 😁Deflationary phase is developing in economy. Stay tuned for my perspectives on coming developments in markets based on charts - technical and fundamental analysis #HZupdates thread coming up!
SP500 recovered some of the loses from early trading this week. Still, I think we have seen the top of the Expanding Diagonal, and we are currently in the Deflationary part of the crisis, where growth in economy is rolling over. Target ~2050 by Q1/Q2 2020 #HZupdates
#SP500 - will we see rally to 2950 for pot. top of wave 2 (black) before reversal and strong decline? That would close the gap in market from early Aug. #HZupdates
Read 16 tweets
Hope you enjoy the weekend! 😀Deflation unfolding in economy. Stay tuned for my view on market and coming macro developments #HZupdates
Short term we may see a bounce in #AUDUSD, as wave 2 develops - which sets us up for strong wave 3 down #HZupdates
#OIL develops in Ending Diagonal, which sets a target <20USD before LT-bottom. Again - we could pot. see that LT-bottom in around early Spring 2020. The period from now - until then is the #DEFLATIONARY phase of the crisis. This is where liquidity (USD) is scarce #HZupdates
Read 18 tweets

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