Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #commodities

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1) Statistics of household vs establishment surveys:

=> 169K +/- 91K (per M last 8M)

NFP 2.7M jobs vs household 12K last 8M!

BLS conf intervals +/- 500K (household) and +/- 120K (NFP) each M:

Household/M = 1.5K +/- 177K
NFP/M = 337K +/- 42K

$SPY $QQQ $TLT $GLD #Commodities Image
2) Using few simplifying assumptions but answers will be in ballpark.

Something is VERY off.

Jobs according to BLS using all data?

(1.5K +/- 177K + 337K +/- 42K)/2 = 169K +/- 91K

169K +/- 91K per M last 8M.

This applies household and NFP data using BLS confidence intervals.
3) Mentioned payrolls lag Challenger data.

Didn't post details but corr w NFP next 1-2M was high.

Also NFP subject to big revisions.

2M payroll revision was -23K. But latest revision Jan-Oct totaled -249K!

In '21 there were monthly revisions of ~400K.
Read 3 tweets
1) Posting often about $TSLA for a reason.

LT growth/share/margin assumptions required by valuation were outrageous.

But a LT expectation reset (i.e. blowup outside of lockdowns) seems likely within few Qs.

Book to bill will be << 1 in Q4 ...

$SPY $QQQ $TLT $GLD #Commodities
2) (also in Q3) at this rate.

Backlog = sales-orders. B:B = orders/sales.

I'd guess many TSLA bulls aren't familiar with cyclical risks as bull case is mostly secular.

Have discussed semis as a leading econ indicator for over 1Y. Requires cyclical ...
3) analysis. Orders, sales, backlog, inventory growth thru supply chain (if sales > end market consumption) etc.

If I saw a semi (or in another cyclical sector) stock with huge LT expectations, rising inventory, B:B << 1, rising competition, reduced ...
Read 9 tweets
1) Much to say but just a summary. Rates will go "somewhat" higher?

Peak Fed funds rate now 4.92% vs 5.15% in early Nov.

Or only ~20% prob of 2 more hikes vs Sep dot plot vs ~100% prob few W ago.

Taking under at 4.87% median still looks ok ...

$SPY $QQQ $TLT $GLD #Commodities
2) (btw ignore 4.331 hikes in table - distorted due to 3.83% effective rate vs 3.87% median).

And at least an IT 2Y yield peak on 11/3/22.

Also 3M/2Y inverted today! Correlates with recent 3M 18M forw - 3M "Powell curve" inversion.

Much better than ...
3) 3M/10Y inversion in timing recessions and Fed pauses/cuts.

Why? Shorter term inversions = ST rates likely to go below yields priced within ~1-2Y rather than many Y's.

E.g. 3M/2Y first inverted Aug '00 vs Apr '00 for 3M/10Y. 3M/2Y inverted Jul '06 ...
Read 4 tweets
Thought of the day: Fighting #commodity price tops will just result in 75% plus stockprice retracements, #cyclicality music always stops, grab a chair early to avoid serious regrets and portfolio destruction. Easy clue to follow, is 65-80% margins above cost curves are peakish.
Those #commodities that are currently near bottoming (0-20%) for the next up cycle 2H2023-2025....

#tin -65%
#ironore -66%
#nickel -60% (moving up)
#Lumber -72%
#zinc -40%
#HRCSteel -67%

Know where you are in the cycle....
1st Quartile candidates for the next cycle...
Read 8 tweets
This is why the usd is going to be in real trouble (vs #commodities) for the next 20 years and why we are on the cusp of a huge #resources bull/boom market
China makes actual products and sends them around the world running a fairly balance trade surplus/deficit. They’ve spent the last 20 years locking down supplies for their economy. Long term contracting. Company purchases. Cozying up to all sorts of regimes…politics free
At the peak of the last commodity bull China’s exports as a % of their GDP ran up to 30-35% making them very vulnerable to a global slow down and the USA which accounted for ~1/3 of their exports. (Going from memory)
Read 6 tweets
A Picture tells a 1,000 Stories: This one show how #China dominates the production of key #cleanenergy technologies such as #solar, #wind, #batteries as well as the key #commodities that go into them.
I am thankful for the #Chinese and their great entrepreneurs for ramping up production as they have helped bring the costs of these #technologies down substantially.
#China has understood early the huge growth opportunity with these technologies and thet have also understood the strategic importance of #cleanenergy and supported their companies along their growth paths. Meanwhile, back in the #US and #Europe….well the picture says everything
Read 3 tweets
🧵 Is the American Dream dead? - a tweetstorm

This is a brain dump of .@RaoulGMI's 30+ years of knowledge, how the world works, and how his macro framework fits into it all ⤵️
1/ There's no denying that we're in a mess!

By the Law of Unintended Consequences, every time we try to fix A, we create problems B, C, D, E, etc.

We hardly understand these new problems unless there's hindsight to connect the dots...

So, how the hell did we get here?

Let's start by looking at the peak of the #British Empire:

It was the world's largest realm. But as with every empire, trying to control so many people across the globe has its price & #debt weakened its structure...
Read 81 tweets

What is scandium (Sc)?

Why is it a game changer & EXTREMELY significant to $DBG.V / $DBLVF (imo)?

#StocksToBuy #stockstowatch #mining #stocks #scandium #Commodities #investments

It is on the Canadian & US lists of Critical Metals

"are the building blocks for the clean and digitized economy"

"play a significant role in our national security, economy, renewable energy development and infrastructure"……

Sc prices:

The price varies depending on which compound it is

Sc FL compound is said to be ~US$277/gram!

For comparison gold is only worth ~US$58/gram…
Read 23 tweets
Qual a importância da sazonalidade no mercado das #commodities? Possivelmente, este seja o fator mais importante na hora de analisar possíveis direção de preços, pois mostra os picos de oferta e de demanda e aqui há importantes diferenças entre agrícolas e energéticas⤵️
Energéticas possuem sazonalidade pelo lado da demanda, enquanto agrícolas pelo lado da oferta. Explico: a oferta de #petroleo é estável o ano todo, porém o consumo aumenta no verão da AMN e no fim de ano, agrícolas possuem demanda estável, mas a oferta aumenta nas safras⤵️
Dito isso, já sabemos quando os preços tem comportamentos de alta e de baixa. Vamos agora para o balanço entre a oferta e demanda, que é o principal driver de preços; no caso das energéticas, se os preços estão muito altos e nos encaminhamos para o período sazonal de alta⤵️
Read 8 tweets
Qual a importância dos fretes no mercado de #commodities?

Já sabemos que as cotações dos derivativos se movem de acordo com fundamentos de oferta e demanda, e de que estas cotações não são os preços da commodity no mercado físico! O frete ele pode ser um indutor da demanda ⤵️
Existem várias maneiras de se negociar uma commodity no mercado físico: diretamente entre vendedor/comprador, exchange for physical (EFP), exchange for swap (EFS).. mas todas as negociações, irão levar em conta, o custo de originação (replacement) ⤵️
E é aqui que os fretes passam a ser um ponto muito importante. Nos grãos, o replacement é calculado com CBOT + Basis FOB + Frete, assim, considerando os mesmos valores para o FOB, o frete irá indicar a origem mais competitiva, que levará a demanda; no do petróleo ⤵️
Read 6 tweets
1) BofA Oct Global Fund Manager Survey released today.

Most charts are saying similar things and are at/near '08 extremes. But here's a sample.

Net fund managers % saying overweight cash and underweight equities beyond peak '08 levels.

$SPY $NDX $TLT $GLD #Commodities
2) Close to record levels of investors expect a weaker economy next 12M.

#Inflation expectations at Dec '08 level.
3) Lowest % on record saying taking higher than normal risk.

Lowest % saying global profits will improve.
Read 5 tweets
1) SF Fed paper "finds national homeowners’ shelter prices rose 4.3% Y/Y in July 2022, compared with 5.8% in the CPI measure" based on actual payments.

- OER based on the “implied rent” that owners indirectly pay to ...

$SPY $NDX $TLT $GLD #Commodities…
2) live in their homes. Implied rent cannot be observed, so the CPI uses an estimate (i.e. very imperfect, lagged and difficult to model as I've discussed).

Magnitude of shelter #CPI has surprised most, including Nobel laureates, Harvard professors, GS economists (who today ...
3) adjusted their model and increased '23 shelter inflation estimate).

Here are a few threads/debates:

Then an empirical data set with what's actually being paid for shelter is ...…
Read 6 tweets
1) Bberg implies selling bills to buy back bonds, so has elements of Operation Twist.

"allowing Treasury bills to be sold in more consistent quantities, with proceeds used for buybacks of securities less in demand."

This would also help ...

$SPY $NDX $TLT $GLD #Commodities
2) release RRP liquidity.

But haven't seen any evidence that this is their intention (sell bills to buy back off-the-run-Treasuries). If Treasury matches tenor by selling on-the-run-Treasuries instead, liquidity of older bonds will improve but market impact is quite different.
3) If anyone has any insights here, would love to hear from you.
Read 4 tweets
Here my value/potential simulation of URNM by only using 50% (conservative approach) of EV/lb values of February 2007 on all URNM holdings +taking 1 rebalancing in March 2023 into account.
In 3 tweets

Result:2.7x from 66.9USD/sh Friday
$URA & $URNM 🚀imo
(1/3) - part1 ImageImage
(2/3) - part2 ImageImageImage
#uranium #commodities
(3/3) - part3
Note: important source of data: John Quakes
This isn’t financial advice. Do your own DD before investing
Cheers ImageImageImage
Read 4 tweets
1/17 En este hilo vamos a repasar la tesis de la #plata #silver y pensar porque podria ser unas #inversiones a tener en cuenta. Sobretodo porque puede ser una opción mas interesante que el #gold si pensamos en #preciousmetals 🧵
2/17 El #bear case esta soportado por un #dolar fuerte y unos #bonds yields altos gracias a las subidas de tipo de la #FED, ya que esta a dejado claro que va a subir tipos en noviembre y diciembre y mantenerlos en 2023 Image
3/17 Por otro lado, el #dolar hará peak pronto porque no puede si esta muy fuerte destruirá demanda ya que la mayoria de #commodities se compran en dolares Image
Read 17 tweets
What really causes inflation? 🧵

[a thread for normies - like me]
2/ The problem with #inflation is that it's a very personal experience.

As I always say, the wallet is the most sensitive organ in the body, so my inflation might not be your inflation.

In fact, my inflation could be seen as #disinflation by you... (more on that later)
3/ Price inflation and monetary inflation have different definitions:

* For many.- #inflation is the increased prices paid for goods & services.

** To others.- it's a decline in the purchasing power of your #money.

*** In layman's terms.- Too much money chasing too few goods.
Read 25 tweets
In response to DM’s:

Flights Investment Discord -
Please read 🧵 before joining:

$panr $ptal $btu $yca $pslv
#oil #uranium #Commodities
In ‘The most important thing' by Howard Mark, he say's....Large amounts of money are not made by buying what everybody likes, they're made by buying what everybody underestimates.
Disclaimer: Nothing in this Discord server is intended as investment advice. We are not your financial advisor, and this is not financial advise. Please, always do your own due diligence when it comes to investing and always take responsibility for your own choices.
Read 6 tweets
#commodities #uranium

To get in alignment with the incoming bottom, likely 1H 2023 (the pivot on monetary tightening and peak USD), several spots will decline by 30% & high beta related equities by up to 60%. Be prudent in ones scale in, we are using future return as a guide.
History indicates 90-95% stock decliners within #commodity sectors often offer interesting recovery returns of 15-20x (all being even), expect this to play out in many cases through 1H 2023.

Where are our bids?
A) where we can obverse Cap/CF <0.5x 3 yrs out
B) Cap < 5% of NPVs
How to use future returns as a scale in guide?

For us we are looking for 8x plus returns over 48 months, so to achieve this an ideal buy in is <5% of NPV and/or <0.5x Cap/CF 3yrs out

These often present themselves near cycle bottoms....

Read 6 tweets
Algo atípico está acontecendo no mercado de #commodities agrícolas: mesmo com DX em patamar elevadíssimo, fundos estão aumentando suas posições líquidas long, principalmente no #milho; sinal de que a oferta está muito preocupante! Avançando no tempo, como os custos de ⤵️
produção permanecem com tendência de alta, especialmente nos #fertilizantes nitrogenados, há um sério risco do produtor US reduzir, novamente, a área para o próximo ano, o que deixará a oferta apertada pelos próximos 2 anos, mesmo com o Brasil produzindo safras recordes ⤵️
A produção da #Ucrania, dificilmente se aproximará nos níveis pré guerra, antes de 2024 e isto se o conflito terminar logo; estamos nos encaminhado para o 3° ano de La Niña, ou seja, com os dados atuais, a perspectiva não é nada boa para os cereais!
Read 3 tweets
$GMTN heading towards negative EV

1m oz resource at high grade with positive drilling results

65koz low capex production ramp up, NPV 10x cap and expanding

Optimization issues on start up

Accummulation zone incoming 8-18c, below <12c 10x return potential

It's starting to tick the boxes
A) negative EV
B) free pounds in the ground
C) low capex ramp up
D) nice grade
E) 10x plus NPV upside
F) hated by the market
G) optimization could kick in 3-6 months time
H) cycle bottoming incoming over 4-9 months
I) low dilution risk Vs M&A
Please note any new bottoming theme over the next 3 to 9 months, one should have 5 candidates to mitigate stock specific risk.

If our #gold watchlist falls by 50% from here as the bottoming process kicks in, the average return will likely be 10-15x over the following 3-5 years.
Read 7 tweets
Um dos meus indicadores preferidos para monitorar o mercado de #commodities, é o BDI (Baltic Dry Index), pois ele reflete a realidade sobre o fluxo do mercado físico, não há manipulação nos dados, já que para opera-lo, na Baltic Exchange, você tem que ser uma cia marítima ⤵️
Assim, todos os negócios que acontecem, são fixações de fretes reais! Pois bem, há uns 3 meses atrás, eu comentava que este mês de setembro, poderia nos dar uma visão melhor de como o mercado poderá se comportar para os próximos meses, já que entramos da peak season dos fretes⤵️
A #China retoma sua atividade industrial após o período, sazonalmente, chuvoso de agosto e começam a acontecer as compras para o Black Friday e Natal no país. O que estamos vendo? Nas três últimas sessões, o indicador geral, subiu 30%, o #capesize (minério de ferro) 45% e de ⤵️
Read 9 tweets
DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach presents "Rehab."

Tune in Thursday, 9/15/2022 at 1:15 pm PT | 4:15 pm ET.

#macro #markets #commodities #Fed #inflation #growth #rates #stocks #bonds #EM #Europe #USD #FOMC #Powell #recession Image
.@DLineCap CEO Jeffrey Gundlach: I think the U.S. needs to go into rehab
Gundlach: There are 1,250 IRS agents who are not paying taxes. 87,00 new IRS agents coming.
Read 65 tweets
Esta semana terminando o mês de agosto! E o que isso tem de especial? Setembro é mudança de sazonalidade nas #commodities! Agrícolas chegam ao mercado nos EUA, #petroleo inicia o movimento de alta devido a demanda por heating oil, #China retoma a atividade industrial após as 🧵
Chuvas de agosto, demandando mais Minério de Ferro, #cobre, alumínio, etc. Também é a peak season dos fretes marítimos, com o início das compras de natal. Em 2.000, quando eu comecei a trabalhar com exportação, este era o período que eu mais recebia presentes, pois 🧵
Havia uma grande concorrência entre as cias marítimas, agentes de carga, despachantes e portos, mas, desde 2020 as coisas mudaram, é somos nós, “donos de carga” que temos que dar presentes para conseguir espaços nos navios 😂, enfim, com todos os problemas que conhecemos 🧵
Read 5 tweets
As previously noted, i really read everything that #ZoltanPozsar puts out...His Aug 24th piece was terrific again. In this #thread I summarize the most important takeaways: 🧵
"War means industry.
Global supply chains work only in peacetime, but not when the world is at war, be it a hot war or an economic war.
Read 25 tweets

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