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Oct 20 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
#Russia_Sanctions: Russian MinFin is asking for money from the National Welfare Fund (NWF) to finance the budget deficit. Two main expenses are causing this deficit: the failed aggression against Ukraine and the reduction in revenue due to Western sanctions. ⤵️
Therefore, the govt will earmark €16.5 billion (~1 trillion rubles) for budget needs at the end of 2022. The money will come from the NWF ($187.9 billion = 8.1% of GDP) and the govt can use up to 3.1 trillion rubles (52.1 billion euros) in 2022. At the same time, there is an ⤵️
avalanche of bad news for Russia: 1) The state has to subsidize the air transport sector with 1.6 billion euros; 2) Rusnefti's profits have been halved to ~600 million euros since the beginning of 2022;⤵️
3) Int. reserves fell by $4.3 billion for just one week in Oct (they now make up $544.4 billion, more than half of which is frozen in foreign jurisdictions).

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More from @DionisCenusa

Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Oct 21
#Moldova: The separatist region declared an economic emergency: 1) The region faces a gas deficit of 30%, which affects the functioning of the Transnistrian economy; 2) Rationing between the needs of the population and the companies will be used to ensure the supply of⤵️
public services (heating); 3) The largest gas consumers, the cement producer in Rybnitsya and the metal factory in the region will suspend economic activity, while the start of heating will be delayed. The administration of the separatist region reported that it has special⤵️
emergency funds to cover social expenses. In my opinion, the elites of the region want to force both the constitutional authorities and Moscow to react and provide concessions/assistance.
Read 4 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Oct 21
#EU_Gas: It is very likely that a temporary cap will be established on the price of gas. The EU and member states reiterated the following: 1) The gas price cap is manageable and the market reacts to changes in the EU energy market (which send political signals to other⤵️
buyers and sellers). Still, Japan and others should join the initiative (China and India will not do this); 2) The gas price for electricity production will be regulated (Spanish and Portuguese models); 3) The price of LNG will be influenced through a new index that⤵️
will reduce the price in the longer term. The EU and member states will present more detailed decisions later today. Bad news for Russia's efforts to weaponize gas leverage.
Read 5 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Oct 20
#Moldova_Russia: Further details on the ~50 million euro loan that the Moldovan government (through the state-owned company Energocom) is making to the Moldovan gas operator (50% owned by Gazprom) to pay off current Russian gas debts include the following:⤵️
1 ) The money will be disbursed today based on loan and pledge contracts; 2) The maturity of the loan is May 1, 2023, with an interest rate equal to the base rate of the National Bank of Moldova (currently - 21.5% per annum); 3) The guarantee for repayment of the loan and⤵️
interest is the pledge consisting in assigning in favor of the Moldovan government/Energocom 100% participation of Moldovagaz (Gazprom) of the capital in “Moldovatransgaz" and all movable property of the networks of natural gas transport.⤵️
Read 6 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Oct 20
#EU_Russia: The EU summit with 10 ASEAN countries scheduled for Brussels in December will adopt a declaration condemning Russian aggression against Ukraine. This will happen after the G-20 meeting that will take place in Indonesia (Bali) in November, with the participation of⤵️
Putin. It is worth mentioning that of the 10 member states of ASEAN, only Singapore has joined some of the Western sanctions against Russia in the financial sector (along with 30 other countries). ⤵️
Consequently, Singapore is the only one included in the list of ~50 “unfriendly states” established by Russia to apply counter-sanctions. Vietnam has an FTA with the Eurasian Union. ⤵️
Read 6 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Oct 19
#Moldova_Russia: Latest news: The Moldovan authorities decided not to risk it and will lend money to MoldovaGaz to pay the current debts to Gazprom - about 50 million euros. Therefore, the government decided to stay away from energy disruptions for 3 reasons:⤵️
1) Gas in the EU spot market is still high; 2) The government cannot cover the gas costs for the breakaway region to ensure the production of 70% of the electricity. This implies the risks of socio-economic shocks in the separatist region, as well as in the constitutional⤵️
territories, with implications for the security and stability of Moldova; 3) It is very likely that the Moldovan govt is not convinced that it can buy the full volumes of electricity at a discount from Romania (a strategic partner), potentially including gas.⤵️
Read 4 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Oct 19
#Russia_migration: The state concept of migration policy will be revised soon: 1) Russia wants to integrate ~ 5 million Ukrainian refugees (forced to move to Russia from the occupied territories of Ukraine); 2) The influx of foreign immigrants is increasing after pandemic⤵️
restrictions are lifted; 3) More Russians emigrated abroad since the war against Ukraine broke out. The MFA is supposed to increase activity abroad to protect the interests of Russian citizens. This somewhat contradicts recent statements by Lavrov, who announced that⤵️
diplomatic representation in the Baltic countries will be reduced due to the coldness in bilateral relations. Perhaps Russia will limit its diplomatic capacities in Western states that build an exigent, principled and restrictive policy against Russia (rightly termed as⤵️
Read 5 tweets

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