On its current track forecast it looks like its remnants will head into he Southern US, but much depends on the intensity #Roslyn develops and its speed of movement. Some model runs have shown remannts re-emerging in the Gulf - but this is unlikely,
Latest complete run of the GFS3 model IWVT - integrated water vapour transport via @weathermodels_
In the latest GFS3 run the low center survives passage over Mexico into Texas where it turns into a storm that runs up through the Mid-west into Canada.
rainfall solutions over 200 hours in North and Central America. ImageImage
Note that there is yet another #Tehuantepec wind gap event expected during this period which is clearly visible in the rain image over the Gulf of #Tehuantepec.
The PWAT version of the #roslyn texas mid-west transit event.

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More from @althecat

Oct 22
A thunderous riposte to IC players who continue to cling to the hope of somehow resurrecting the TPLF in planned peace talks in South Africa on Monday, whilst their remaining military force prepares for a final stand at historic Adwa.

counterpunch.org/2022/10/21/eth…
The protests today across Ethiopia and around the world have hopefully been noticed by the IC, which has steadfastly remained supportive or silent on the TPLF’s repeated aggressions and refusals to engage in peace efforts since May, culminating in the start of a new war on 24/8.
Ethiopia’s peoples at home and abroad have made it clear that they want peace, but not at the cost of continuing to have to co-exist with an armed terrorist group using the hashtags #DisarmTPF and #TPLFMustGo in recent weeks.
Read 11 tweets
Oct 22
Breaking news THREAD of english @YouTube videos from @sajid_nadeem78’s “My Views on News” channel, starting Friday night following failed UNSC Meeting. It has been a very busy 36 hours.

Adwa | Korem | UNSC meeting on Ethiopia fails | Massive protests 1/4
Journalist @sajid_nadeem78 has been ceaselessly following developments in the Ethiopian war for as long as I can remember back in early 2021.

His 1st video today:

Update from Shire | New party to Ethiopia-Tigray talks | Huge protests 2/4
Previous video has 2 interesting stories out of the US, AAA seeking to be a party to talks + Temporary Protected Status being granted to Ethiopians in the US. Allowing them to stay. 3/4

Ethiopian & Eritrean armies enter Tigray's historic city of Aksum
Read 6 tweets
Oct 22
This from Bisrat Lemessa Kabeta @BisratLKabeta is superb. It needs maximum exposure over the weekend before Monday's Peace Talks - or whatever else happens.

TPLF’s Exit: A Crucial Step towards a Post-Conflict Ethiopia Capable of Sustaining Peace. link.medium.com/aNa6GB1iiub
@BisratLKabeta The article contains a very clear and succinct response to the question: "Should TPLF be allowed to remain in some role in Tigray" to which the answer is a resounding NO!

Unfortunately, the TPLFs ask of Western Powers going into the talks in South Africa is exactly this.
@BisratLKabeta It is clear that any outcome which provided for a continued role for TPLF in the governance of Tigray and/or Ethiopia would be unacceptable to the people of Ethiopia, to the Govt. and in time most probably also to the people of Tigray.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 21
And now we have another new storm - heading the wrong way across the Atlantic. This storm has been visible in the models for a long time also. It looks like it will be named soon #Lisa.

October 2022 has been a very busy month in the Atlantic, and Central America for cyclones. Image
And there is a chance another storm may pop up here just south of Panama and cross back into the Atlantic.
If it does it could be either Seymour or Martin depending on where it is when it becomes a named storm. Most likely Martin, after it crosses back into the Atlantic.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 21
#Roslyn is shaping up to be another truly terrible Hurricane with massive size & widespread heavy rain (flooding) impacts, similar to #Julia & #Ian.
But with much more time to strengthen in favourable conditions #Roslyn also forecast to develop major major hurricane wind speed.
New NHC advice now predicts 95 Knot winds on landfall the threshold for Cat 3 Major Hurricane status, but strengthening beyond that is possible with Landfall not expected till 7pm Sunday. ImageImageImageImage
Current GFS model rainfall estimates at 24, 48, 72 & 96 hours. ImageImageImageImage
Read 5 tweets
Oct 21
"The situation [in Ethiopia] has never been that bad on the military and humanitarian side". @JosepBorrellF holds press conference on the outcomes of Foreign Affairs Council meeting Oct 17th - Direct link to passage discussing this (is brief) >>
Borrell was also asked a softball question on his "Jungle" "Garden" remarks and if he had been misunderstood for his "understandable" comments.
Direct link to question >>
And @JosepBorrellF's answer >>

He talks about the Good garden Europe is, because it has political freedoms & economic advantages. "I may not have expressed this properly." He says he was telling students in Bruges they should not take Europe for granted.
Read 5 tweets

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