๐Ÿงต@leone_hadavi and I have spotted what may be the first satellite image of a Myanmar Su-30 on the tarmac in Naypyidaw. These Russian-built planes have been elusive and kept quite secret but recent reports indicate regular training flights have commenced. #WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
A better view of it shows on timelapse (2 frames). The imagery surrounding this capture shows it is not there for long, suggesting the object is active. Dimensions roughly match Su-30 rather than Mig-29 (currently high margin of error due to low-res imagery)
Around the time of the alleged arrival of the Su-30, two new buildings were being constructed at Naypyidaw Airbase. It is notable that the known aircraft normally residing here (helicopters) do not have the blue livery seen in recent imagery.
Recent imagery showing the hangars and new building. Each of the three hangars appears large enough to hold two Su-30s, accommodating six in total. This conforms with our understanding that six have been ordered.
The light blue livery is typical of the camouflage used by combat planes used by the Myanmar Air Force including the Yak-130, K8, JF-17, and Mig-29s.
ENTIRELY UNVERIFIED: This image was posted across Telegram last week claiming to show an Su-30. It is impossible to verify date and location. But it does coincide with an increase in alleged sightings.

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More from @TomTomjarvis

Jun 12
LONG THREAD 1/many: What is in my #OSINT folder in my bookmarks? I'll list all the fun/cool tools that I'm willing to share and tell you a bit about them. Hopefully, I can share some less well-known ones, and maybe discover some from Twitter! Image
The first tool fotoforensics.com allows you to analyse photos for manipulation with approaches such as Error Level Analysis and metadata scraping.

It's far from the best tool but one that is good for double-checking your ELA's. Image
For better ELA, I recommend Forensically (29a.ch/photo-forensics) this also has much better features with more granular control of the results.
Read 23 tweets
Oct 30, 2021
Just deleted a tweet, since while the image wasn't altered, the unique context of it wasn't reflective of the norm. Happy to own up to this mistake!
I had forwarded on a claim that Scotrail was charging ยฃ12 for a short journey ticket in Glasgow. The image hadn't been photoshopped. What I had failed to do was verify deeper than cursory image analysis. ImageImage
The context that had been left out was that "A ยฃ12 minimum fare applies for journeys starting between 04.30-09.59 Monday to Friday" for 16-25 railcards. This means that this ticket was bought incorrectly and does not represent price inflation during COP26.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 26, 2021
THREAD: I've been doing a lot of reading on Error Level Analysis for image forensics and have tested various images out. It can be quite hit or miss, but one thing it is great at is detecting forged documents. (I faked my name onto this certificate image). #osint #verification ImageImage
Sadly, it is not perfect, and if an image is lightly edited with content of the same error level (eg things move around in the same image), then it is much harder to detect. ImageImageImage
A lot of contextual analysis is needed. For example, the lettering on the drone may appear fake, as does the tag blowing in the wind underneath, but they are real. Edges often light up due to the nature of image compression. ImageImage
Read 6 tweets

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