Assessing the survivability of #bitcoinminers
A) Understand the debt structure, particularly what falls due within the next 18 months
B) Assess the liquidity position today & over the next 18 months
C) Check on operating cashflow positivity at current #Bitcoin prices & lower
1/
A) Understand the debt structure, particularly what falls due within the next 18 months
B) Assess the liquidity position today & over the next 18 months
C) Check on operating cashflow positivity at current #Bitcoin prices & lower
1/
D) What is the end of 1H 2023 liquidity picture like.. (cash+coins-debtpayments-/+6 month cash margin less capex obligations)
...positive margin of safety is required otherwise material dilution and/or bankruptcy becomes a high risk.
....conduct the same exercise yr end 2023.
2/2
...positive margin of safety is required otherwise material dilution and/or bankruptcy becomes a high risk.
....conduct the same exercise yr end 2023.
2/2
Thoughts on potential cashflow recovery for #bitcoinminers
#Bitcoin pricing and sector operating CF margins:
1H 2024 $30,000 17%
2H 2024 $40,000 37%
1H 2025 $60,000 58%
2H 2025 $80,000 70%
1H 2026 $100,000 75%
2H 2026 $120,000 80%
Example: 20 #Bitcoin per day 2H 2025..
1/2
#Bitcoin pricing and sector operating CF margins:
1H 2024 $30,000 17%
2H 2024 $40,000 37%
1H 2025 $60,000 58%
2H 2025 $80,000 70%
1H 2026 $100,000 75%
2H 2026 $120,000 80%
Example: 20 #Bitcoin per day 2H 2025..
1/2
..equates to annualized operating CF US$400m.
So locating a market cap below $400m through 2023 that can deliver such a production rate would be trading on 1x CF multiple, $200m would be 0.5x.
Note the debt load of up to 1bn on the balance sheets which has funded the capacity
2
So locating a market cap below $400m through 2023 that can deliver such a production rate would be trading on 1x CF multiple, $200m would be 0.5x.
Note the debt load of up to 1bn on the balance sheets which has funded the capacity
2
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
