S.L. Kanthan Profile picture
Oct 25 5 tweets 2 min read
Sensational title that is contradicted by the article’s content. 😂 By 2025, “only” 75% of iPhones and 80% of iPads will be made in China.

OMG, the grand decoupling has began.

economist.com/business/2022/…
Forecast of Apple shifting manufacturing and assembly away from China — to Vietnam, India etc.

#iPhone #iPad #Macbook #AirPod
Three problems with facts and logic in this article:

1) China is getting richer and older. Naturally, it WANTS to move away from labor-intensive and low-wage jobs.

2) The shift is very very slow. Why? Nobody can match China in efficiency, logistics and infrastructure
3) A lot of the outsourcing is done by CHINESE companies!

So, similar toFoxconn, mainland China now has big manufacturing/assembly companies like Luxshare, Goertek and Wingtech.

Thus, many new manufacturing plants in India or Vietnam will still be a Chinese firm.
Bonus point #4: China is moving up the value chain.

Rather than just assembling, China is making expensive components that go into Apple’s products. Like the screen, battery, speakers, cameras, semiconductor chips etc.

That is China’s future — “high quality growth”.

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More from @Kanthan2030

Oct 26
China will surpass the US within 5-10 years — in terms of nominal GDP. Guaranteed.

Chinese economy grows faster than the US’ every year. It’s simple math.

But there’s more…(next tweet)

ft.com/content/cff42b…
Look at the IMF forecast for real GDP growth for China and US in 2022 and 2023:

USA: 1.6% and 1%

China: 3.2% and 4.4%

This trend will persist for at least a decade. Image
But here’s one factor that can super-accelerate China’s growth:

Strengthening of Yuan.

If and when $1 equals ¥6, China will be in parity with the US.

If it’s ¥5, China will be way ahead.

Can it happen?
Read 4 tweets
Oct 23
Breaking News💥. The seven most powerful men in China:

Xi Jinping, Li Qiang, Zhao Leji, Wang Huning, Cai Qi, Ding Xuexiang, and Li Xi.

The new leadership in the Politburo Standing Committee of CPC/CCP.
Here their ages:

Xi Jinping, 69
Li Qiang, 63
Zhao Leji, 65
Wang Huning, 67
Cai Qi, 66
Ding Xuexiang, 60
Li Xi, 66 Image
The #2 man is Li Qiang. He will be China’s new Premier. Image
Read 4 tweets
Oct 23
Elon Musk dreams of an open source Twitter that doesn’t allow trolls, shadow bans, censorship etc. But this is terrifying for the overlords of the American Empire.

Here’s why: 🧵
First, social media is a powerful and core enabler of America’s soft power, which in turn enables hard power.

As Americans love to say, “Perception is reality.”

Karl Rove — George W. Bush’s handler — famously said, “We (USA) have the power to define reality.”
The enormous success of the US is built upon its sophisticated propaganda and censorship, which is not even obvious to most people around the world.

For example, I can tweet this! How is it possible?? 🤔
Read 8 tweets
Oct 22
US economists are always talking about China’s “wasteful” spending on infrastructure. 🙄

I would rather the govt spend too much rather than too little on infrastructure.

An example: Autonomous Vehciles. 🧵
Like this robotaxi in Chongqing, China. Such driverless vehicles operated by AI is the future.

With a caveat... (in the next tweet)

#infrastructure
For self-driving vehicles, the roads, traffic lights, behavior of other vehicles etc. should be well regulated.

In the future, smart/rich countries will have roads and highways dedicated to driverless vehicles!

And these intelligent highways will also have full 5G access!
Read 5 tweets
Oct 17
Western media is universally negative about Xi Jinping. Not even close to being objective.

Looking at the last decade, here are some of Xi’s big achievements that I can think top off my head: 🧵
1. China’s GDP more than doubled (from $8.53 trillion in 2012 to $17.7 trillion in 2021).

Not an easy job to grow such a large economy.

Even India’s GDP grew only 77% during that time.
2. China’s manufacturing also kept growing in three ways:

1) Total output in value
2) Share of global output
3) Moving up the value chain (becoming more high-tech)
Read 14 tweets
Oct 16
Some stats on rural population of India:

🔹900 million (2/3rd of the population) still live in rural areas

🔹And they are distributed among 600,000 villages!

🔹Thus, an average of 1,500 people per village

This demographic situation is holding back India’s growth. Image
So, it’s just pure economies of scale (or lack thereof) that these villages don’t have good infrastructure, schools, hospitals etc.

For India to see growth, there needs to be major urbanisation — through consolidation of villages or migration to cities.
How to make that consolidation/migration happen in a democracy is a challenge. But someone needs to come up with creative incentives.

Empowering and raising the living standards of these 900 million people will tremendously boost India’s GDP and other metrics.
Read 5 tweets

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