Fatih Birol Profile picture
Oct 27 11 tweets 6 min read
World Energy Outlook 2022 is out!

It shows energy markets & policies are changing profoundly as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

Today’s crisis promises to be a historic turning point towards a cleaner & more secure energy system

Read more ⬇️ iea.li/3SOmGBW
The world is dealing with a crisis of unprecedented breadth & complexity

Oil & gas markets are facing major uncertainties amid today’s geopolitical upheaval

High energy prices have stoked inflation & created a looming risk of global recession

Read more: iea.li/3DwmvWj
Governments around the world are responding to the crisis by doubling down on clean energy – in the US, EU, Japan, China, India & elsewhere

Their new policies are set to help global clean energy investment rise above $2 trillion a year by 2030, an increase of over 50% from today
For the 1st time ever, today's policy settings are strong enough to deliver a distinct peak in fossil fuel use within this decade.

This isn't enough to avoid severe climate impacts, but it's progress from where we were a few years ago. Stronger policies can steepen the decline.
The rise in coal use this year has attracted a lot of attention, but it's small & our new analysis suggests it will be temporary.

Renewables are set to surge even higher, with their electricity generation rising 90% by 2030, eating into coal & gas's share of the power mix.
Progress in policies & technologies since 2015 has shaved 1°C off projected global warming, but much more is needed to reach the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement

Implementing announced climate pledges in full would lower warming to 1.7°C, moving us closer to safer ground
Limiting global warming to 1.5°C would mean a much faster scaling up of clean energy globally

What's encouraging is that the announced pipeline of clean energy manufacturing projects would, in several areas, approach the levels needed to put the world on track for #NetZeroby2050
One of the effects of the current crisis is that the era of rapid growth in global gas demand draws to a close.

In Europe, climate policies accelerate the shift away from gas. New supply brings prices down by the mid-2020s, and LNG becomes even more important to gas security.
This year's WEO makes clear the long-term impacts of Russia's actions on its energy exports.

Russian fossil fuel exports never return – in any of our scenarios – to their 2021 levels. Within 10 years, Russia’s share of internationally traded oil & gas is set to fall by half.
Amid these major changes, a new energy security paradigm is needed to ensure reliability & affordability while reducing emissions

That's why #WEO22 provides 10 principles to help guide policymakers through the period of declining fossil fuel & expanding clean energy systems
To learn more about the new analysis in @IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2022, explore the freely available report online ➡️ iea.li/3SOmGBW

And join lead authors @Laura_Cozzi_ & @tim_gould_ and me for our live launch event at 11am Paris time ➡️ iea.li/3U0cQ0F

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More from @fbirol

Sep 5
The global energy crisis is hurting households, businesses & economies worldwide, and it’s important to separate fact from fiction

In my new op-ed for @FT, I highlight 3 claims in particular that are wrong – in some cases dangerously so

A short thread:
ft.com/content/2c1338…
Myth 1: Russia is winning the energy battle

A short-term jump in energy export earnings can’t offset a permanent loss of trust & markets. Moscow is doing itself long-term harm by alienating the EU, its biggest customer. Its oil & gas sector will also struggle under sanctions.
Myth 2: Today’s crisis is a clean energy crisis

In fact, more low-carbon energy would have helped ease the crisis, & a faster transition is the best way out of it

When people blame clean energy, they are moving the spotlight away from the real culprits: the gas crunch & Russia
Read 4 tweets
Jul 7
The @IEA Special Report on Solar PV Global Supply Chains is out!

China has driven down solar panel manufacturing costs, helping spur solar’s success worldwide while at the same time resulting in a major concentration of global PV supplies

Read more ➡ iea.li/3amTtO7
China's industrial & innovation policies have been vital in solar PV's huge cost declines, benefitting clean energy transitions worldwide

At the same time, the level of concentration in global solar PV supply chains also poses potential challenges

More: iea.li/3ypLpUK
Accelerating clean energy transitions globally will put further strain on solar PV supply chains, with demand increasing massively in a #NetZero pathway

But this also offers opportunities for other countries to help diversify PV production, attract investment and create jobs
Read 6 tweets
Jun 30
Nuclear power has a unique opportunity to stage a comeback amid the global energy crisis, soaring fossil fuel prices, energy security challenges & increased climate ambitions

But whether this happens will depend on governments & industry

New from @IEA ⬇️ iea.li/3ywoMzt
A nuclear power comeback is far from guaranteed

In advanced economies that see a role for nuclear, governments need to enact policies to kick-start investment

And the nuclear industry has to overcome recent cost overruns & delays to deliver new projects on time & on budget
In @IEA’s #NetZero2050Roadmap, global nuclear power capacity doubles by mid-century in a system dominated by renewables

To fulfil this role, nuclear's costs in advanced economies must come down by 40% and world nuclear investment triple by 2030

More ➡️ iea.li/3a6v7bl
Read 7 tweets
Jun 20
Africa Energy Outlook is out!

Today 600 million Africans have no access to electricity & nearly 1 billion no access to clean cooking. Solving this requires $25 billion per year from now to 2030 – the same as building one new LNG terminal a year

More: iea.li/3mZkeea
Electricity is the backbone of Africa’s new energy systems, with scope for 80% of new capacity additions to come from renewables, notably solar

Africa is home to 60% of the best solar resources globally but it has only 1% of solar PV capacity today

More: iea.li/3HJEs5m
Africa’s energy needs are increasing fast, notably in industry

Natural gas may well be needed through 2030 to desalinate water, make fertiliser for food, and steel & cement for construction

But competitive renewables mean gas' share of modern energy doesn't rise in our scenario
Read 9 tweets
Dec 1, 2021
The world is set to add more renewable power capacity in 2021 than ever before

The record-breaking additions of 290 GW of solar, wind & other renewables are yet another sign that A New Global Energy Economy is emerging

Find out more in @IEA's new report: iea.li/3o7lltG
We expect renewables to account for almost 95% of the growth in global power capacity through 2026, with solar PV alone providing more than half

This is driven by stronger support from policies & more ambitious pledges made going into #COP26

Read more: iea.li/3E4wy3L
India is set for the fastest rate of renewable capacity growth among major economies in the next 5 years, doubling additions versus 2015-2020

This supports 🇮🇳’s new goal of 500 GW of renewable capacity by 2030 & highlights its potential to accelerate its clean energy transition
Read 7 tweets
Oct 13, 2021
#WEO2021 is out!

Before a crucial #COP26, it shows that while climate ambitions have never been higher, energy transitions have a long way to go

Governments must give the signal that they will drive a wave of investment in a #NetZero future

Our report: iea.li/3iXLxnx
The encouraging news is that a New Energy Economy Is Emerging

#WEO2021 shows that pursuing #NetZero can create a market opportunity for equipment like batteries & wind turbines worth over $1 trillion a year by 2050 – similar to today's oil market

More: iea.li/3oVAVJR
If governments fully deliver on the climate pledges they have announced so far, it would limit global warming to 2.1 C.

Not enough to solve the climate crisis, but enough to change energy markets, including oil – which would peak by 2025 – and solar & wind, whose output soars.
Read 9 tweets

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