Big Tech charts thread🧵🧵🧵visualizing fundamentals, less words, visuals say 1,000 words:
$META Free Cash Flow please, overview:
👉Price/Free Cash Flow
👉Free Cash Flow growth (year over year)
👉Free Cash Flow / share
👉Free Cash Flow absolute value
$SPY $QQQ #Stocks#Equities
$META Facebook capital allocation:
👉CAPEX fully deployed again: $27.6bn & 23.4% out of Revenues
👉Stock Buyback Yield at a crazy 15.2%
Food for thought ... thoughts ?
$SPY $QQQ #Stocks#Equities
$GOOG Google capital allocation:
👉CAPEX fully deployed: $30.2bn & 10.7% out of Revenues
👉Buyback Yield at a record 4.6%
Food for thought ... thoughts ?
$SPY $QQQ #Stocks#Equities
$GOOG total return & drawdown:
👉38.69% return since January 2020, still very good (Covid crash, war, energy issues, inflation, interest rates etc)
👉note: a higher current drawdown than $QQQ
Food for thought ... thoughts ?
$MSFT Microsoft capital allocation:
👉CAPEX deployed: $24.3bn & 12% out of Revenues
👉Buyback Yield not much as usual: 1.6%
Food for thought ... thoughts ?
$SPY $QQQ #Stocks#Equities
$NFLX Netflix Free Cash Flow please, overview:
👉Price/Free Cash Flow
👉Free Cash Flow growth (year over year)
👉Free Cash Flow / share
👉Free Cash Flow absolute value
Note for how long free cash flow was negative ...
$NFLX CAPEX aka capital spending:
👉CAPEX deployed: $462m & a small 1.47% out of Revenues ... food for thought ... thoughts ?
$SPY $QQQ #Stocks#Equities
$NFLX Total Return & Free Cash Flow / Share:
👉Note the crazy 7,646% parabolic run in price ... while free cash flow / share was still heavily negative ...
👉wasn't it all about free cash flow / share ? ...
$SPY $QQQ #Stocks#Equities
$NVDA NVIDIA capital allocation:
👉CAPEX deployed: $1.2bn & 4.3% out of Revenues
👉Stock Buyback Yield at 2.1%
Food for thought ... thoughts ?
$SPY $QQQ #Stocks#Equities
Big Tech
👉Operating Expenses & Free Cash Flow
🧐Growth firms need to spend to grow, right ?
How about internal clean-up/efficiencies ? Time for cost cutting? Then returns shall follow
🧐 Growth firms need also to deliver to investors Free Cash Flow $GOOG $MSFT $META $NVDA $NFLX
$V VISA capital allocation:
👉CAPEX deployed: $970m & 3.3% out of Revenues: light business, right ?
👉Stock Buyback Yield at 2.95%, shall grow: they just announced a new 12bn buyback program ... 5.1 buyback left from current program.
Thoughts ? $SPY $QQQ #Stocks#Equities
Bonus pick (2):
$TSLA Tesla Free Cash Flow please, overview:
👉Price/Free Cash Flow
👉Free Cash Flow growth (year over year)
👉Free Cash Flow / share
👉Free Cash Flow absolute value
Loads of years of negative free cash flow, yet all short sellers got burned ...
$TSLA CAPEX aka capital spending:
👉CAPEX fully deployed: $7.1bn & 9.5% out of Revenues ... decreasing given high revenue growth
$SPY $QQQ #Stocks#Equities
$TSLA Tesla price return & short interest: once free cash flow was on the horizon, all short sellers vanished ... hard to be a short seller in general: limited upside, unlimited downside ... $SPY $QQQ #Stocks#Equities
$AAPL Apple capital allocation:
👉CAPEX deployed again in abs terms $10bn & constant at 2.72% out of Revenues
👉Stock Buyback Yield at 3.86%
Food for thought ... thoughts ? @GeorgeC1953
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$KR 🧵on a name not popular and not covered cause boring ... but makes money: +96% since January 2020, +5% in 2022 a year when not much worked ...
$SPY #SPX $QQQ #Stocks#Equities
$PLTR Q3 earnings preview🧵7th Nov:
Valuation since DPO: Price, Actual & Estimated Sales with Free Cash Flow switching positive:
👉when PLTR was making 1bn Sales & Sales estimates were 1.3bn, price = 44
👉when PLTR is making 1.74bn in Sales & Sales est are 2.09bn, price = 8.61🧐
$PLTR Earnings History & Surprises:
👉actual EPS vs EPS surprise
👉1 day price % reaction ... if you feel like trading the stock and/or options during the Q3 earnings have this in mind ...
$PLTR Financials Actuals & Consensus:
Wall Street consensus expects:
👉$475m Q3 Revenues while for Q4 $507m with revenue growth just 21% and 17%
👉 1.9bn for 2022, 2.3bn for 2023 and 3bn for 2024 with revenue growth just 23%, 24% and 25% =🧐materially below management guidance?
👉Buffett bought more stock this quarter than in 2008 when he saw a lot of value at a discount
👉I remember like it was yesterday reading his 2008 piece from NYT 'Buy American. I Am.'
👉And yes, I did buy as well ... almost 15 years passed since then ... nytimes.com/2008/10/17/opi…
during 2020-2021 was great to talk with @TSOH_Investing and conclude that BRK would be a very good risk/return profile going forward with a less friendly FED and/or likely inflation ... which yes, it happened ...
one of Buffett's latest purchases is HP $HPQ ... No wonder Buffett bought HP as I am quite sure he likes this kind of 'inflection' points where shares outstanding go down while dividends go up ... tailwind ... margin of safety ... value investing ...
👉Revenue growth 41% 2021 vs 2020
👉lower Q1 2022 outlook (market not liking it)
2) 👉SPAC investments: I was expecting 50-60m UNrealised loss, came in higher with 73m 3) 👉SBCs (Stock Based Compensation) dropping materially in 2021 from 2020 as expected - guidance: SBC will be lower and will be inline with other peers (I am still modelling the forward rate)
4) Cash, Equity & Debt:
👉higher cash position is never bad: 2.3bn
👉total equity higher from 1.5bn to 2.3bn
👉no debt (non-current), hence hiking rates, mneah, not an issue (if it was a non-fixed rate)
The crowd sees cash as an attractive alternative at the moment. Cash is at highest levels since May 2020. What will they do with the cash should the war risk abate & central banks prove to be less "traumatic"? (Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey)
same survey showing how Tech Net Allocation fell to the lowest since August 2006 ... quite a crazy stat ...