Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Equities

Most recents (13)

As you all know #deflation has been my theme for some time. It is obvious looking at charts like #Copper and #Oil. Here is #Oil. Ending Diagonal which will send Oil <23 USD during 2019/2020. This has been my call since top in 2018. It is >70% drop --> deflationary #HZupdates
#Copper shows same picture. #Deflation is coming. We are in wave 5 of C in expanding diagonal. Current bounce is wave 2 - will rally slightly higher - before major drop. I imagine this is what Powell starts getting indications on #HZupdates
Notice 2008 Q1-Q3 - during last deflationary phase. Fed had been tightening up to Sept. 2007 - and started lowering rates. BUT damage had been done to economy. World rolled over and #deflation /disinflation. It was from Q1-Q3 2008. #Copper plunged. Same situation now! #HZupdates
Read 22 tweets
#Equities #SP500 was rallying and the bulls are cheering. The excuse seems to be, that Powell has blinked. Remember 2007-09? Fed started lowering rates by September 07. Yet that did not prevent Financial markets to decline hard until March 2009 #HZupdates
The thing is, that when liquidity #crunch snowball gets rolling, some announcement from #Fed will not do the job. Down the line, Fed will need to scramble (QE or the like) to fight USD shortage. My LT #SP500 model remains like this. Major Bear market ABC-structure. #HZupdates
I will not reveal my EW-count for #SP500 here. That is reserved for subscribers and buyers of Weekly Update. Only say, that we have not seen an impulse wave since Sept high. I expect a MAJOR decline to set in rather soon, taking us to my bottom of wave A from LT-chart. #HZupdates
Read 17 tweets
Good morning to all 😀Interesting weeks/months ahead of us as my deflationary scenario plays out. Will have massive consequences for currencies, gold, equities etc. I keep my subscribers updated closely on Daily/Weekly updates. But for now - stay tuned for some #HZupdates 👍
"#Deflation" or "#Disinflation" have been my call for a long time. We are not out of Kondratiev's winter yet. We haven't seen the all events which unfold during K's winter. Still to come Pension Funds Crisis, Currency Crisis, Run from Paper Money ...and War #HZupdates
And "#Deflation" outlook is clear in the charts imo. I look primarily to #AUDUSD and #Copper for guidance. Observe this chart of #Copper. Major ABC pattern. Length of C can be set by the irregular pattern indicating low in Copper below 2008-levels = deflation in 2019 #HZupdates
Read 19 tweets
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Let’s get this mini #mcm_chartstorm going

$SPX resistance - big time overhead
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$spx high beta is the new low beta & to us a canary/tell that all is not what it seems & what @cnbc pumpers are selling
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$spy $spx head & Shoulders has reached symmetry & likely complete
Read 30 tweets
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Let’s get this #MCM_CHARTSTORM started.

There are a lot of charts. Will be updating the thread into tomorrow, so if you want to see the whole thing it will not be complete till tomorrow - keep checking back.

Will also prepare a THREADVIEWER version

Let’s start with $SPX
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Here is a better version of that $COMP & $SPX (gray) chart
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How about the $COMPQ Running Correction? Its coming right along and following perfectly as well as getting ready to soon pull the rug out from underneath buyers imo $SPX
Read 61 tweets
Let’s Get this Chart Storm STORMING...

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The most optimism in over 5 years - nothing to see here
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Since we are on the subject of sentiment and internal health/state of the markets

This swing in the equity options markets is off the scale manic. From very high put buying to very high call buying in 2 bars!!! $SPX
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But that’s not all. $VIX is not agreeing with options players - so someone is wrong. Possibly the manic maniacs? Your guess is as good as ours $SPX
Read 45 tweets
Last week in markets was truly exciting! Some important signals were provided - which sets us up for some truly great trades 😀Before all leaves FinTwit to relax and enjoy during Christmas - I will provide you with some #HZupdates. Stay tuned! 👍
#EURUSD has been showing a lot of weakness. The LT-perspective is same as it has been for a very long time. Target of ~0.91 to be reached some time during 2019. Coming decline will bring about massive capitulation #HZupdates
#EURUSD - I have had 2 scenarios for how price will develop coming days/weeks. This scenario seems to hold most credibility. We could see small bounce next week - but soon EURUSD will crash in a strong wave lower. Great opportunity to go short is closing in #HZupdates
Read 16 tweets
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VOL CONTROL/VOL TARGETING

What that got to do with the markets right now?

Well, inverted $VIX has been lagging the #equity index’s and that is a big deal. The reason it is a big deal is because the of VOL TARGETING
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Volatility targeting/control strategies aim to control risk by BUYING $VIX as $SPX drops and liquidating $SPX as $VIX rises.

When $SPX makes new lows but $VIX does not the implication is these insurance products continue to buy #ES_F futures while sell $VIX
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So what so we have here? We have an entire sector that has built a model where a divergent $VIX = increased $SPX buying via #ES_F futures.

This strategy is roughly $1 tillion in notional and like $SKEW is showing, hopelessly underhedged vs a downside break
Read 10 tweets
Hi all 😀Ready for some #HZupdates? I have had some busy weeks - however, I expect to post more regularly soon again. I'm also spending more time on my Whatsapp list for subscribers. Some great trades ahead. Stay tuned! 👍
#EURUSD No changes to LT-view. We are on the path towards 0.91. I do expect a bounce in EURUSD, before a crash will set in #HZupdates
#EURUSD Following the bounce, the decline will be forceful - comparable to the decline in 2014-15 in steepness. One small bounce on the way towards 0.91 will be wave 4 #HZupdates
Read 15 tweets
#EURUSD rally is coming! I have been calling for this for few weeks, and we are getting closer. I expected it to begin >1.130. After breaker this level, I however think, we will see another low in EUR before the pair takes off. Hence, weakness (initially) before rally #HZupdates
Callings of crash in #EURUSD now. I have been of opinion, that we will see significant rally first taking us much higher than most traders anticipate. The rally is the last wave in wave 2. The last chance to get out before the EUR begins crash towards LT-target of 0.91 #HZupdates
Like EUR, #Gold #XAUUSD will also crash. However, we are about to set out for significant rally, which will bring Bulls back out with claims of USD 1500+. This will not be the case and when Gold tops, the decline will be strong. I have updated my LT-target to 750 USD #HZupdates
Read 11 tweets
Good morning from #Copenhagen, #Denmark 😀Another exciting week in the market. Hope you are up for some #HZupdates. We are imo getting closer to an inflection point where things will start to develop fast. Stay tuned! 👍
😀 I would like to see how many #FinTwit users read my #HZupdates on a weekly basis. Will you please answer by a simply "yes" or "no" to the question: I read #HZupdates every weekend. Thanks! 👍
#SP500 I think we pot. have a full count for US #equities. I see a test of the lower trendline (yellow mark) as a given. How successful that test turns out will give us a lot of info. #HZupdates
Read 11 tweets
#HZupdates Let me put some narratives on my charts for a change. When Fed hikes and performs QT, it is pulling LIQUIDITY out of the system. That means tighter financial conditions. We see that by rates moving up
That would be fine IF it was not for the fact, that the economy and the "recovery" is solely based on the inflow of #liquidity. If the recovery was self-sustaining - then this rate increase would be right. Problem is - prices have been distorted beyond recognition in all markets
#HZupdates ....and valuations of #equities and all risk assets have no connect to the earth. This has been the true nature of the recovery. Driven be the "balance"-side - NOT by the "income"-side. So - now you start hiking....
Read 9 tweets
“SINCE...........2008”

A THOROUGH COMPENDIUM OF #FINANCIAL #ECONOMIC #DEBT #STOCKMARKET #INTERESTRATE #HOUSING #RISK DATA, TOLD IN TWEETS BY MYSELF & MANY OTHERS.

This is dedicated to everyone that will say “nobody saw it coming”

Read the ENTIRE THREAD, down the rabbit hole
#GOLD #SILVER RATIO HIGHEST SINCE 10/2008
#EMERGINGMARKETS DEFAULT RISK HIGHEST SINCE 2008
Read 25 tweets

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