3. Everyone knows we are going over the limit, probably in 2024 (James Hanson and co), but this cannot be accepted because the lie of staying under 1.5C is necessary to maintain the immense ideological ego of the global liberal class - ie, the myth of continued material progress.
4. The notion of "collapse" is not just a material horror but a terminal emotional & spiritual crisis for this class - similar to the Catholic Church's response to the "technical" revelation that the earth went around the sun - an historical eg of the phenomenon to which I refer.
5. .@jrockstrom and the rest of his elite liberal colleagues will soon descend from tiredness into states of nervous breakdown and possible suicide, unless they transition from the progress paradigm to the revolutionary paradigm.
6. That is, what we face is a #deathproject of unspeakable evil and we have to engage in #CivilResistance to stop it - whether we succeed or not is not relevant - we do it for our moral sanity.
7. The issue is not whether or not you are a liberal (both myself and @jrockstrom both support liberal civilisation in the wider sense of the word). The issue is having the intelligence and courage to get ahead of the curve.
8. Liberals were revolutionaries two hundred years ago because they rightly recognised that arbitrary unchecked power (ie the ability to destroy livelihoods and lives on a mass scale without any accountability) required a change of the whole political regime.
9. They face the same situation today.
I am more than happy to talk to scientists about their responsibilities at this time.
1. "Regions facing the highest ecological threats are on average the least concerned about climate change, with only 27.4% of those in the Middle East and north Africa and 39.1% of those in south Asia concerned about the risks."
..2/ theguardian.com/environment/20…
2. More devastating evidence that as things get worse commitment to change will lessen. More devastating evidence that 30 yrs of giving information is a failure. More devastating evidence that #climate movements have ignored some of the basic rules of thumb of social research...
3. 1. It is not the oppressed that rise up (they are too humiliated) but those that see the oppression. 2. As things get worse people focus more on the immediate cause and less on the big picture.
...
1. "Global consumption of coal expected to increase to the record levels reached 10 yrs ago."
THIS IS HOW BILLIONS DIE! As climate collapse goes exponential, secondary social effects - war, disease, nihilistic fascism prevent effective collective action. theguardian.com/business/2022/…
2. This is why reformism is an utter waste of time - the facilitator of mass death. It can never compete with the tyrannous psychosis of short-termism. Only a prophetic revolution will save us now.
3. What does this look like:
A small number of people do whatever it takes to stop the carbon economy. The global carbon regime arrests, imprisons and kills them.
Did you get the key stats in this article? 2 worse droughts for 500 yrs happening now every 4 years – 2018 and 2022. And then the drying up on the Rhine lead to a decline in GDP of .2%. So let’s do a little projection. theguardian.com/environment/20…
2. Let’s do a reasonable prediction of a 500 year drought happening on average every year from 2030 – some years not so bad other years the worst for 1000 years. That’s -.2% on average every year. -2% over the decade. But that’s just the Rhine.
3. Let’s add in other reasonably predictable events also giving -2% hits to GDP:
Another war in Ukraine -2%
Another pandemic -2%
20% of German forest burning down -2%
Two years of 50% agricultural losses due to 50-55C summers -2%
1 of 22 Tweets.
It is a week since the highest temperatures in thousands of years hit the UK.
It is now an objective reality that this civilisation will collapse at some point in the early 2030s. Long tail possibilities are the late 2020’s and the late 2030’s on the other side.
2. Why? Forget global averages 1.5C, 2C – that’s all political distraction. What will bring down the system is physical and biological HARD STOPS and the compounding secondary effects cascading through the system.
3. These are objective. Like putting a bullet through someone’s brain. They die. They have nothing to do with social predictions – i.e. complex systems. This is Newtonian cause and effect.
1. "...projected yields of corn dropped by more than 20 percent globally... Across the world and in many bread basket regions, this is going to occur in the next couple years." ... 2./ insideclimatenews.org/news/27032022/…
2./.. What does it take for NGO's to go into #civilresistance against the carbon regimes. 1 billion malnourished people, 2 billion, 5 billion?
3./..
"The world’s population will hit 10 billion people in 2050."
Why do business as usual predictions which are 99% not likely to happen use the word "will,"
while climate breakdown predictions which are 99% likely to happen use the word "could"?
1/"The environmental protesters who demand systemic change have also grasped this fundamental truth. In Fridays for Future, Green New Deal Rising, Extinction Rebellion and the other global uprisings against systemic environmental collapse, we see people..
2/ …mostly young people, refusing to consent. What they understand is history’s most important lesson. Our survival depends on disobedience." There are so many things wrong with this. First, "environmental protest" is the opposite of creating "systemic change".
3/ The latter is brought about by civil resistance. This is not "environmental" it is a political movement against a genocidal regime. It is not "protest" - it does not protest about something, it makes sure it changes through material disruption.