Thread by @althecat

An essential truth about TPLF, Tigray Genocide & the Tigray war.

The PR launch of #TigrayGenocide accompanied the attack by the TPLF on Nov. 3-4 2020. It’s purpose, to manipulate Western Powers & public opinion to support a violent insurrection, a coup. And it worked.

Whilst @SecPompeo initially responded to the attack in horror on behalf of the US, the ruse worked, and as the world was distracted by the high stakes US election #TigrayGenocide exploded on social media and was swallowed without discernment by the Govt. Elect of @JoeBiden.

Everything that has happened since in Ethiopia has rested on this big lie - the most successful disinformation campaign in warfare since the fake WMDs pretext for the Iraq war in 2003.

Most unfortunate of all was the adoption of this lie by the incoming - admittedly highly distracted - Democratic Party administration. The party had a long history with the TPLF. Clinton inherited them in 1992, and Obama worked closely with them from 2008-2016.

And the information warfare tactics used by TPLF in its war were modeled on those used by the U.S. in Iraq & Libya. Which is far from surprising as the TPLF’s military leadership was trained in the U.S. and the UK.

The war in Ethiopia is indeed a tragedy of monumental size and moral turpitude, but it isn’t the tragedy that has been reported in international media for the past 2 years. It is much worse. And the facts directly implicate Western Powers as accomplices of a dirty war.

A dirty war involving - numerous massacres, routine extrajudicial executions (of men of fighting age) use of sexual violence, looting and destruction of schools and hospitals - all by TPLF forces.

Western powers turned a blind eye to TPLF closure of the humanitarian aid route through Afar by invasion in 2020 and 2021, and the consistent diversion of humanitarian aid & aid trucks which did get through for war purposes. Aid used for coercive recruitment of child soldiers.

When the TPLF retook Tigray following an insurgency offensive which accompanied the first real democratic election in Ethiopian in June 2021, Western supporters of TPLF applauded.

And when TPLF forces got close to the capital Addis Ababa in November Western observers applauded, then when they were pushed back later in the month the U.S. Senate Introduced sanctions legislation to threaten the Govt and People of Ethiopia.

And after TPLF was finally defeated and pushed back into Tigray at the end of December the Biden Administration sanctioned the GoE by removing its AGOA preferential trade status.

And still TPLF did not stop, they invaded Afar again in January 2022, once again blocking the aid corridor, and recommenced their “blockade” “seige” starvation #TigrayGenocide information offensive - this time led by @DrTedros from his pulpit in @WHO Covid briefings.

This war has always been first and foremost an information war. And as it now comes to an end we are seeing a surge in information warfare once again, by TPLF & enabled by Western media, diplomats, political institutions to once again try to rescue the TPLF from defeat.

This time however things are different. The TPLF is defeated. And Ethiopia has learned how to fight back effectively in the information war both politically inside the U.S. through diaspora engagement & diplomatically.

But escape for Western Actors involved in all of this is difficult, they are caught in a bind, due to their mistakes which they cannot admit. And so the circus continues for now.

The IC has returned to form, using the diplomatic formula: “there is no military solution”. Which whilst technically true in all conflicts is now deeply misleading as the TPLF have been defeated again, for the third time - in three wars they started on 4/11/20, 15/7/21 & 24/8/22.

But this formulaic phrase misses the point of what is now happening.

- The TPLF’s forces are in disarray.
- The ENDF is engaged in an operation to secure hearts and minds in Tigray
- and Africa is fully backing Ethiopia in its quest for peace and an end to this war.

Peace talks in South Africa are very important, but take place in circumstances more like the Armistice talks at the end of WWI than those in other intractable rebel conflicts - because TPLF is spent, defeated. And because it is finally losing the IC support which it relies on.

TPLF spokesman @reda_getachew’s could not hide his bitterness at this perceived betrayal in his most recent English language briefings which can be found on YouTube at @TigraiTv.

But perhaps most important of all, TPLF’s rebel and military leadership has now left the Tigray region and it is difficult to understand how they might return to Mekelle when talks finish on Sunday, and if so what they might do once there as most of Tigray is under ENDF control.

The TPLF’s political leadership left for the talks last Sunday, the day after a massive show of unity by millions of Ethiopians in the streets across the Ethiopia calling #DisarmTPLF #TPLFMustGo and for an end to Western interference.

So the group of 12 named, mostly elderly, male TPLF leaders - which some rumours suggest may have been accompanied by their families on their US Airforce flight - must have known they would be unlikely to be able to return.

In conclusion:
- while there are still many loose ends this war seems to be coming to an end
- the AU, African nations and leaders involved in this end game appear to have a plan - albeit unclear at this stage.
….

- the US’s policy and objectives- whose @MikeHammerUSA is also at the talks - appear a little incoherent as Senators (bi-partisan) threaten a new even harsher round of sanctions to save their TPLF friends.

- the UN, also represented at the talks, is staying out of the public debate. And the subject of the end of this protracted war had barely come up in recent briefings.
- Europe -embarrassed by the remarks of High Representative @JosepBorrellF is not there, and saying nothing.

- Media around the events us also incoherent, blindsided by the total communication lockdown around the talks being held at an undisclosed location.

The stage is now set for a dramatic conclusion to all of this, possibly as early as this weekend.

Meanwhile Ethiopians & close observers wait with a sense of hope and growing confidence that this long running nightmare may soon be over.

/ends

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