An essential truth about TPLF, Tigray Genocide & the Tigray war.
The PR launch of #TigrayGenocide accompanied the attack by the TPLF on Nov. 3-4 2020. It’s purpose, to manipulate Western Powers & public opinion to support a violent insurrection, a coup. And it worked.
Whilst @SecPompeo initially responded to the attack in horror on behalf of the US, the ruse worked, and as the world was distracted by the high stakes US election #TigrayGenocide exploded on social media and was swallowed without discernment by the Govt. Elect of @JoeBiden.
Everything that has happened since in Ethiopia has rested on this big lie - the most successful disinformation campaign in warfare since the fake WMDs pretext for the Iraq war in 2003.
Most unfortunate of all was the adoption of this lie by the incoming - admittedly highly distracted - Democratic Party administration. The party had a long history with the TPLF. Clinton inherited them in 1992, and Obama worked closely with them from 2008-2016.
And the information warfare tactics used by TPLF in its war were modeled on those used by the U.S. in Iraq & Libya. Which is far from surprising as the TPLF’s military leadership was trained in the U.S. and the UK.
The war in Ethiopia is indeed a tragedy of monumental size and moral turpitude, but it isn’t the tragedy that has been reported in international media for the past 2 years. It is much worse. And the facts directly implicate Western Powers as accomplices of a dirty war.
A dirty war involving - numerous massacres, routine extrajudicial executions (of men of fighting age) use of sexual violence, looting and destruction of schools and hospitals - all by TPLF forces.
Western powers turned a blind eye to TPLF closure of the humanitarian aid route through Afar by invasion in 2020 and 2021, and the consistent diversion of humanitarian aid & aid trucks which did get through for war purposes. Aid used for coercive recruitment of child soldiers.
When the TPLF retook Tigray following an insurgency offensive which accompanied the first real democratic election in Ethiopian in June 2021, Western supporters of TPLF applauded.
And when TPLF forces got close to the capital Addis Ababa in November Western observers applauded, then when they were pushed back later in the month the U.S. Senate Introduced sanctions legislation to threaten the Govt and People of Ethiopia.
And after TPLF was finally defeated and pushed back into Tigray at the end of December the Biden Administration sanctioned the GoE by removing its AGOA preferential trade status.
And still TPLF did not stop, they invaded Afar again in January 2022, once again blocking the aid corridor, and recommenced their “blockade” “seige” starvation #TigrayGenocide information offensive - this time led by @DrTedros from his pulpit in @WHO Covid briefings.
This war has always been first and foremost an information war. And as it now comes to an end we are seeing a surge in information warfare once again, by TPLF & enabled by Western media, diplomats, political institutions to once again try to rescue the TPLF from defeat.
This time however things are different. The TPLF is defeated. And Ethiopia has learned how to fight back effectively in the information war both politically inside the U.S. through diaspora engagement & diplomatically.
But escape for Western Actors involved in all of this is difficult, they are caught in a bind, due to their mistakes which they cannot admit. And so the circus continues for now.
The IC has returned to form, using the diplomatic formula: “there is no military solution”. Which whilst technically true in all conflicts is now deeply misleading as the TPLF have been defeated again, for the third time - in three wars they started on 4/11/20, 15/7/21 & 24/8/22.
But this formulaic phrase misses the point of what is now happening.
- The TPLF’s forces are in disarray.
- The ENDF is engaged in an operation to secure hearts and minds in Tigray
- and Africa is fully backing Ethiopia in its quest for peace and an end to this war.
Peace talks in South Africa are very important, but take place in circumstances more like the Armistice talks at the end of WWI than those in other intractable rebel conflicts - because TPLF is spent, defeated. And because it is finally losing the IC support which it relies on.
TPLF spokesman @reda_getachew’s could not hide his bitterness at this perceived betrayal in his most recent English language briefings which can be found on YouTube at @TigraiTv.
But perhaps most important of all, TPLF’s rebel and military leadership has now left the Tigray region and it is difficult to understand how they might return to Mekelle when talks finish on Sunday, and if so what they might do once there as most of Tigray is under ENDF control.
The TPLF’s political leadership left for the talks last Sunday, the day after a massive show of unity by millions of Ethiopians in the streets across the Ethiopia calling #DisarmTPLF#TPLFMustGo and for an end to Western interference.
So the group of 12 named, mostly elderly, male TPLF leaders - which some rumours suggest may have been accompanied by their families on their US Airforce flight - must have known they would be unlikely to be able to return.
In conclusion:
- while there are still many loose ends this war seems to be coming to an end
- the AU, African nations and leaders involved in this end game appear to have a plan - albeit unclear at this stage.
….
- the US’s policy and objectives- whose @MikeHammerUSA is also at the talks - appear a little incoherent as Senators (bi-partisan) threaten a new even harsher round of sanctions to save their TPLF friends.
- the UN, also represented at the talks, is staying out of the public debate. And the subject of the end of this protracted war had barely come up in recent briefings.
- Europe -embarrassed by the remarks of High Representative @JosepBorrellF is not there, and saying nothing.
- Media around the events us also incoherent, blindsided by the total communication lockdown around the talks being held at an undisclosed location.
The stage is now set for a dramatic conclusion to all of this, possibly as early as this weekend.
Meanwhile Ethiopians & close observers wait with a sense of hope and growing confidence that this long running nightmare may soon be over.
The strategy outlined here by Elias Hiruy and @NebiyuAsfaw of @EA_DevCouncil and the @GleanEthiopia nexus is exactly what is needed, and has already delivered big time.
Its a big part of why the Biden Administration has been softening its position on Ethiopia in recent months.
I expect Tigray's children, nearly all of whom will have been brought up in faith like all Ethipoians make very poor killers when deployed as child soldiers by the TPLF forces in human waves. Which may explain why so few of them are given guns.
Which reminds me how much I have become desensitised simply by observing this war.
The horrors which will emerge once the true story is told of what has happened will have an enormous impact globally.
And the fact that all of this has happened with active Western IC - including #HRW and @amnesty support for the evil that brought this about in many ways makes the Western powers failures here worse than those in Cambodia and Rwanda.
Excellent myth-busting here from the incomparable @JonAbbink. A deep dive into the notable absence of any religious dimension to the Northern Ethiopian conflict. Jon also sets the record straight on a large number of other aspects of this war. canopyforum.org/2022/10/26/has…
@JonAbbink Great piece Jon! When I was in Amhara Addis and Afar in April May and June through a coinciding Easter/Ramadan celebrations I fell in love with the "singing city" of Addis, where the overlapping Islamic and EOC calls to prayer were almost continuous where I was staying.
While in Addis I met some Catholic missionary nuns and went to a wonderful Geez Mass, in a tiny Franciscan church. Three priests, entirely sung with continuous music and incense burning. 3 hours long. I loved it :)
Ok Senait. I admire your passion, but disagree (do not equate likes for agreement) and this tweet of yours contains an element of why. Peace talks are very difficult and necessarily need to be very focused on a single outcome, and to not be politicised.
This is why they take place in silence, and fairly often in secret. They need to be compartmentalised.
US foreign policy is conducted by committee and it is a disaster for that very reason.
It allows special interests to pay for policy related to peace and security and it underpins all the hazards and disasters of the past more than a century of corporate imperialism and American over-reach.
CORRECTION: TPLF is attending the talks, and according to @ProfKindeya a delegation has already arrived there.
This is very good news. A negotiated solution is the path to a durable peace. So what should we expect based on precedent in terms of timing of resolution & visibility.
Based on the size of the delegation from the TPLF attending the talks & what we know about who the other participants/observers are (AU, US, UN - apparently not the EU - though that may change) - this is likely to take some time.
The presumable TPLF position going into the talks is that they will want to:
a) Stay in power in Tigray with a high level of autonomy.
b) Retain their armed forces
c) Negotiate a return of Wolkait (i.e. their "Western Tigray") or at least an open transport corridor to Sudan.